UFC Fight Night: Dawson vs. Green
Las Vegas, USA
7 Oct 2023
Women's Flyweight
VS
54%
Rosa
46%
Aldrich
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Rosa
This is a genuine toss-up — Rosa at 54% vs Aldrich at 46% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 8 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Rosa has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 15 points.
Aldrich has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Aldrich has a chin rating of 58 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Rosa
Aldrich
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'7"+
Height
5'5"
68"+
Reach
67"
31+
Age
33
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
Rosa
Aldrich
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
55.1
47.4
47.2
Performance Avg
42.5
42
Quality of Victory
28
100
Momentum Score
80
Rosa
Aldrich
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.3
1.7
45%
Strike Accuracy
48%
2.8
Striking Style Score (/10)
2.2
1 KOs
KO Finishes
1 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
17
Head
22
6
Body
4
4
Leg
0
RangeRange
23Distance24
4Clinch2
0Ground0
Rosa
Aldrich
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
—
Sub Attempts / fight
0.1
4.8
Grappling Style Score (/10)
2.2
3.4
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
1.5
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Rosa
Aldrich
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
80
58
Never stopped
Verdict
KO risk
0
KO/TKO Losses
1
1
Sub Losses
1
—
KO round context
Avg R2.0 stoppage
—
Last KO loss
12 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
12/22 fights
Chin rating based on
17/22 fights
Rosa
Aldrich
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
100
80
Current form
2-fight 🔥 win streak
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R2
L · Dec · R3
W · KO · R2
Last 5
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · KO · R2
Rosa
Aldrich
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
67%
9%
1
KO / TKO Wins
1
3
Submission Wins
0
2
Decision Wins
10
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Rosa
Aldrich
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
2.8
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
2.2
4.8
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.2
3.4
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.5
5.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
6.3
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
2.6
3.8
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
8.6
RosaAldrich
Strike Zones
Rosa
Attacking
27 landedAbsorbing
26 absorbedAldrich
Attacking
26 landedAbsorbing
27 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Rosa targets the head (63% of attacks) — Aldrich absorbs 63% of strikes there
🎯Aldrich targets the head (85% of attacks) — Rosa absorbs 85% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Rosa
RND
Aldrich
0/0R00/0
Rosa · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.4WinLossTrend
Aldrich · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.0WinLossTrend
Rosa · Last 5
W · Dec · R3
Andrea LeeRating 4.9Decision
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L · Dec · R3
JJ AldrichRating 6.1Decision
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L · Sub · R2
Tatiana SuarezRating 4.6Submission
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Maycee BarberRating 6.5Decision
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Aldrich · Last 5
W · Dec · R3
Jamey-Lyn HorthRating 5.2Decision
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Veronica HardyRating 5.8Decision
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W · Dec · R3
Montana De La RosaRating 5.5Decision
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W · KO · R2
Liang NaRating 5.2KO/TKO
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