UFC Fight Night: Bautista vs. Oliveira
Las Vegas, USA
7 Feb 2026
Women's Strawweight
VS
43%
Brasil
57%
Souza
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Bruna
Bruna Brasil
11 – 7
5'6"65" reachOrthodox32 yrs2-fight slideWell-Rounded
CFR 33
Ketlen
Ketlen Souza
"Esquentadinha"
16 – 6
Well-Rounded31 yrsOrthodox63" reach5'3"
CFR 43

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Souza

This is a genuine toss-up — Brasil at 43% vs Souza at 57% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 10 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Souza has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Brasil
Souza
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'6"+
Height
5'3"
65"+
Reach
63"
32
Age
+31
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Brasil
Souza
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
32.6
42.9
30.0
Performance Avg
40.8
25
Quality of Victory
35
40
Momentum Score
40
Brasil
Souza
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
0.8
1.4
54%
Strike Accuracy
56%
0.8
Striking Style Score (/10)
1.0
0 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
6
Head
7
4
Body
5
2
Leg
2
RangeRange
10Distance9
2Clinch5
0Ground0
Brasil
Souza
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
0.2
2.4
Grappling Style Score (/10)
4.3
1.7
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
3.0
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Brasil
Souza
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
70
84
Moderate
Verdict
Never stopped
1
KO/TKO Losses
0
0
Sub Losses
1
Avg R2.0 stoppage
KO round context
—
7 fights ago
Last KO loss
—
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
8/18 fights
Chin rating based on
7/22 fights
Brasil
Souza
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
40
40
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
Upcoming
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R1
Brasil
Souza
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
0%
33%
0
KO / TKO Wins
0
0
Submission Wins
1
3
Decision Wins
2

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Brasil
Souza
Striking0.8 / 1.0Volume8.8 / 6.3Grappling2.4 / 4.3Wrestling1.7 / 3.0Submission0.0 / 3.3Pressure1.1 / 3.8
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
0.8
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
1.0
2.4
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
4.3
1.7
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
3.0
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
3.3
1.1
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
3.8
8.8
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
6.3
Brasil
Strike Zones
Souza
Brasil
Attacking
6HEAD4BODY2LEGS12 landed
Absorbing
7HEAD5BODY2LEGS14 absorbed
Souza
Attacking
7HEAD5BODY2LEGS14 landed
Absorbing
6HEAD4BODY2LEGS12 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Brasil targets the head (50% of attacks) — Souza absorbs 50% of strikes there
🎯Souza targets the head (50% of attacks) — Brasil absorbs 50% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Brasil
RND
Souza
0/0R00/0

Brasil · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.9
0104.0L5.0W6.4L5.2W6.8L6.9W5.9L7.1L2023-042024-022025-022026-022026-03
WinLossTrend

Souza · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.8
0102.7L4.5W5.3W5.6L6.3L4.5W2023-062024-042024-092025-022025-082026-02
WinLossTrend

Brasil · Last 5

L · Dec · R3
Alexia ThainaraRating 7.1
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Adesanya vs. Pyfer · 2026-03
L · Dec · R3
Ketlen SouzaRating 5.9
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Bautista vs. Oliveira · 2026-02
W · Dec · R3
Shi MingRating 6.9
Decision
UFC - Road to UFC 4.6 · 2025-08
L · Dec · R3
Wang CongRating 6.8
Decision
UFC 312: Du Plessis vs. Strickland 2 · 2025-02
W · Dec · R3
Molly McCannRating 5.2
Decision
UFC 304: Edwards vs. Muhammad 2 · 2024-07

Souza · Last 5

Upcoming
Ariane Carnelossi
UFC Fight Night: Muhammad vs. Bonfim · 2026-06
W · Dec · R3
Bruna BrasilRating 4.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Bautista vs. Oliveira · 2026-02
L · Dec · R3
Piera RodriguezRating 6.3
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Taira vs. Park · 2025-08
L · Dec · R3
Angela HillRating 5.6
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. Rodrigues · 2025-02
W · Sub · R1
Yazmin JaureguiRating 5.3
Submission
UFC 306: Riyadh Season Noche UFC · 2024-09

News & Media

Bruna Brasil · Ketlen Souza
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