UFC 158: St-Pierre vs Diaz
Montreal, Canada
16 Mar 2013
Lightweight
VS
81%
Ricci
19%
Fletcher
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
MR
Mike Ricci
"The Martian"
11 – 5
6'0"76" reachSouthpaw40 yrsWell-Rounded
CFR 12
CF
Colin Fletcher
"The Freakshow"
14 – 8
Well-Rounded2-fight slide43 yrsOrthodox6'2"
CFR 3

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Ricci

Ricci is a strong favourite at 81% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 9 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Ricci has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 25 points.

Fletcher has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Ricci
Fletcher
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'0"
Height
+6'2"
76"
Reach
40+
Age
43
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
Ricci
Fletcher
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
11.8
2.7
28.3
Performance Avg
0.0
25
Quality of Victory
0
40
Momentum Score
0
Ricci
Fletcher
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
0.4
1.7
30%
Strike Accuracy
38%
0.7
Striking Style Score (/10)
0.0
0 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
10
Head
7
2
Body
1
0
Leg
4
RangeRange
5Distance9
2Clinch1
5Ground2
Ricci
Fletcher
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
1.0
Sub Attempts / fight
—
2.4
Grappling Style Score (/10)
0.0
1.7
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
0.0
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Ricci
Fletcher
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
96
96
Never stopped
Verdict
Never stopped
0
KO/TKO Losses
0
0
Sub Losses
0
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
3/16 fights
Chin rating based on
2/22 fights
Ricci
Fletcher
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
40
0
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
Ricci
Fletcher
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
0%
0%
0
KO / TKO Wins
0
0
Submission Wins
0
1
Decision Wins
0

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Ricci
Fletcher
Striking0.7 / 0.0Volume8.7 / 0.0Grappling2.4 / 0.0Wrestling1.7 / 0.0Submission0.0 / 0.0Pressure1.0 / 0.0
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
0.7
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.0
2.4
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.0
1.7
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.0
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
1.0
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
0.0
8.7
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
0.0
Ricci
Strike Zones
Fletcher
Ricci
Attacking
10HEAD2BODY0LEGS12 landed
Absorbing
7HEAD1BODY4LEGS12 absorbed
Fletcher
Attacking
7HEAD1BODY4LEGS12 landed
Absorbing
10HEAD2BODY0LEGS12 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Ricci targets the head (83% of attacks) — Fletcher absorbs 83% of strikes there
🎯Fletcher targets the head (58% of attacks) — Ricci absorbs 58% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Ricci
RND
Fletcher
0/0R00/0

Ricci · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.2
0105.5L4.5W5.5L2012-122013-032013-09
WinLossTrend

Fletcher · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.5
0105.5L5.5L2012-122013-03
WinLossTrend

Ricci · Last 3

L · Dec · R3
Myles JuryRating 5.5
Decision
UFC 165: Jones vs Gustafsson · 2013-09
W · Dec · R3
Colin FletcherRating 4.5
Decision
UFC 158: St-Pierre vs Diaz · 2013-03
L · Dec · R3
Colton SmithRating 5.5
Decision
The Ultimate Fighter: Team Carwin vs. Team Nelson Finale · 2012-12

Fletcher · Last 2

L · Dec · R3
Mike RicciRating 5.5
Decision
UFC 158: St-Pierre vs Diaz · 2013-03
L · Dec · R3
Norman ParkeRating 5.5
Decision
UFC on FX: Sotiropoulos vs Pearson · 2012-12

News & Media

Mike Ricci · Colin Fletcher
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