METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
UFC 89: Bisping vs Leben
Birmingham, United Kingdom
18 Oct 2008
Welterweight
VS
49%
Davis
51%
Kelly
Win Probability
Submission
Round 2 · 2:16
MD
CFR 19
★ Official Result
Marcus DaviswinsSubmissionR2 · 2:16
def. Paul Kelly · UFC 89: Bisping vs Leben
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Kelly
→
Actual result
Davis wins
Submission · R2
Pre-fight analysis
This is a genuine toss-up — Davis at 49% vs Kelly at 51% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
Davis has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 12 points.
Striking split: Kelly throws more volume but Davis connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
Risk flags
Davis's chin rating of 38 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Kelly has a chin rating of 52 — a potential KO vulnerability.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
DavisKelly
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Davis
Kelly
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'10"+
Height
5'9"
70"
Reach
70"
52
Age
+41
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
Davis
Kelly
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
18.7
19.1
52.8
Performance Avg
43.8
48
Quality of Victory
36
56
Momentum Score
99
Davis
Kelly
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
1.4
1.4
42%
Strike Accuracy
41%
4.5
Striking Style Score (/10)
3.1
3 KOs
KO Finishes
1 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
3
Head
1
0
Body
0
4
Leg
0
RangeRange
7Distance1
0Clinch0
0Ground0
Davis
Kelly
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
—
—
—
Sub Attempts / fight
0.5
4.1
Grappling Style Score (/10)
3.0
2.9
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
2.1
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Davis
Kelly
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
38
52
KO risk
Verdict
KO risk
2
KO/TKO Losses
1
1
Sub Losses
2
Avg R2.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R2.0 stoppage
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
4 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
15/33 fights
Chin rating based on
9/19 fights
Davis
Kelly
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
56
99
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
L · KO · R3
L · Sub · R3
W · KO · R2
L · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · Sub · R2
W · KO · R2
L · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R2
L · KO · R2
Davis
Kelly
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
78%
40%
3
KO / TKO Wins
1
4
Submission Wins
1
2
Decision Wins
3
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Davis
Kelly
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
4.5
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
3.1
4.1
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
3.0
2.9
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
2.1
4.4
Submission
Submission attack frequency
2.0
7.2
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
4.5
3.0
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
5.9
DavisKelly
Strike Zones
Davis
Attacking
7 landedAbsorbing
1 absorbedKelly
Attacking
1 landedAbsorbing
7 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Davis targets the legs (57% of attacks) — Kelly absorbs 57% of strikes there
🎯Kelly targets the head (100% of attacks) — Davis absorbs 100% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Davis
RND
Kelly
0/0R00/0
Davis · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.7WinLossTrend
Kelly · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.2WinLossTrend
Davis · Last 5
L · KO · R3
Jeremy StephensRating 4.5KO/TKO
UFC 125: Resolution · 2011-01
L · Sub · R3
Nate DiazRating 4Submission
UFC 118: Edgar vs Penn 2 · 2010-08
W · KO · R2
Jonathan GouletRating 5.2KO/TKO
UFC 113: Machida vs Shogun 2 · 2010-05
L · KO · R1
Ben SaundersRating 1.5KO/TKO
UFC 106: Ortiz vs Griffin 2 · 2009-11
L · Dec · R3
Dan HardyRating 5.5Decision
UFC 99: The Comeback · 2009-06
Kelly · Last 5
L · Sub · R2
Donald CerroneRating 2.8Submission
UFC 126: Silva vs Belfort · 2011-02
W · KO · R2
TJ O'BrienRating 5.2KO/TKO
UFC 123: Rampage vs Machida · 2010-11
L · Dec · R3
Jacob VolkmannRating 5.5Decision
UFC Live: Jones vs Matyushenko · 2010-08
W · Sub · R2
Matt VeachRating 5.2Submission
UFC 112: Invincible · 2010-04
L · KO · R2
Dennis SiverRating 2.8KO/TKO
UFC 105: Couture vs Vera · 2009-11