UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Nascimento
St. Louis, USA
11 May 2024
Women's Flyweight
VS
53%
Aldrich
47%
Hardy
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
JJ
JJ Aldrich
15 – 7
5'5"67" reachSouthpaw33 yrs2-fight win streakWell-Rounded
CFR 47
Veronica
Veronica Hardy
10 – 5
Well-Rounded30 yrsSouthpaw64" reach5'4"
CFR 41

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Aldrich

This is a genuine toss-up — Aldrich at 53% vs Hardy at 47% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

Aldrich has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Risk flags

Aldrich's chin rating of 58 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Hardy has a chin rating of 60 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Aldrich
Hardy
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'5"+
Height
5'4"
67"+
Reach
64"
33
Age
+30
Southpaw
Stance
Southpaw
Aldrich
Hardy
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
47.4
41.4
42.5
Performance Avg
38.5
28
Quality of Victory
31
80
Momentum Score
55
Aldrich
Hardy
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.7
1.0
48%
Strike Accuracy
45%
2.2
Striking Style Score (/10)
1.0
1 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
6
Head
2
4
Body
1
0
Leg
4
RangeRange
6Distance7
0Clinch0
4Ground0
Aldrich
Hardy
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
0.1
2.2
Grappling Style Score (/10)
3.5
1.5
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
2.5
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Aldrich
Hardy
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
58
60
KO risk
Verdict
Moderate
1
KO/TKO Losses
1
1
Sub Losses
1
Avg R2.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R3.0 stoppage
12 fights ago
Last KO loss
9 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
17/22 fights
Chin rating based on
10/15 fights
Aldrich
Hardy
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
80
55
2-fight 🔥 win streak
Current form
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · KO · R2
Last 5
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Aldrich
Hardy
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
9%
20%
1
KO / TKO Wins
0
0
Submission Wins
1
10
Decision Wins
4

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Aldrich
Hardy
Striking2.2 / 1.0Volume8.6 / 7.4Grappling2.2 / 3.5Wrestling1.5 / 2.5Submission0.0 / 2.0Pressure2.6 / 2.9
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
2.2
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
1.0
2.2
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
3.5
1.5
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
2.5
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
2.0
2.6
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
2.9
8.6
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
7.4
Aldrich
Strike Zones
Hardy
Aldrich
Attacking
6HEAD4BODY0LEGS10 landed
Absorbing
2HEAD1BODY4LEGS7 absorbed
Hardy
Attacking
2HEAD1BODY4LEGS7 landed
Absorbing
6HEAD4BODY0LEGS10 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Aldrich targets the head (60% of attacks) — Hardy absorbs 60% of strikes there
🎯Hardy targets the legs (57% of attacks) — Aldrich absorbs 57% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Aldrich
RND
Hardy
0/0R00/0

Aldrich · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.0
0105.5L4.5W4.5W4.8W3.7L4.5W5.5L4.5W4.7W5.7W4.3L5.5L5.2W5.5W5.8L4.9W5.2W2016-122019-102022-062025-032026-04
WinLossTrend

Hardy · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.0
0104.0L5.9L4.0L5.3W5.5L4.7W5.2W5.1W6.3L4.5W2016-092019-082023-122025-10
WinLossTrend

Aldrich · Last 5

W · Dec · R3
Jamey-Lyn HorthRating 5.2
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Burns vs. Malott · 2026-04
W · Dec · R3
Andrea LeeRating 4.9
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Kape vs. Almabayev · 2025-03
L · Dec · R3
Veronica HardyRating 5.8
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Nascimento · 2024-05
W · Dec · R3
Montana De La RosaRating 5.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Dawson vs. Green · 2023-10
W · KO · R2
Liang NaRating 5.2
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs. The Korean Zombie · 2023-08

Hardy · Last 5

W · Dec · R3
Brogan WalkerRating 4.5
Decision
UFC 320: Ankalaev vs. Pereira 2 · 2025-10
L · Dec · R3
Eduarda MouraRating 6.3
Decision
UFC 309: Jones vs. Miocic · 2024-11
W · Dec · R3
JJ AldrichRating 5.1
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Nascimento · 2024-05
W · Dec · R3
Jamey-Lyn HorthRating 5.2
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Dariush vs. Tsarukyan · 2023-12
W · Dec · R3
Juliana MillerRating 4.7
Decision
UFC 286: Edwards vs. Usman 3 · 2023-03

News & Media

JJ Aldrich · Veronica Hardy
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