UFC 254: Khabib vs. Gaethje
Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates
24 Oct 2020
Heavyweight
VS
67%
Volkov
33%
Harris
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 2 · 1:15
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Volkov
Volkov holds a meaningful edge at 67% per the CFR ratings — but Harris has real paths to victory.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 31 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Harris has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 16 points.
Striking split: Harris throws more volume but Volkov connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
Risk flags
Volkov's chin rating of 60 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Harris has a chin rating of 0 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Volkov
Harris
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'7"+
Height
6'5"
80"+
Reach
77"
37+
Age
42
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
Volkov
Harris
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
60.2
29.6
54.7
Performance Avg
51.0
42
Quality of Victory
58
88
Momentum Score
65
Volkov
Harris
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.8
1.9
58%
Strike Accuracy
45%
5.8
Striking Style Score (/10)
10.0
6 KOs
KO Finishes
6 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
5
Head
1
1
Body
0
0
Leg
0
RangeRange
6Distance1
0Clinch0
0Ground0
Volkov
Harris
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
1.8
/ 10
0.0
/ 10
1.2
Wrestling Style (/10)
0.0
0.7
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
1
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Volkov
Harris
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
60
0
Moderate
Verdict
3 consec. KOs
1
KO/TKO Losses
5
1
Sub Losses
1
Avg R3.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.6 stoppage
14 fights ago
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
19/51 fights
Chin rating based on
16/23 fights
Volkov
Harris
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
88
65
2-fight 🔥 win streak
Current form
3-fight 📉 slide
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R2
Last 5
L · KO · R1
L · KO · R2
L · KO · R2
W · KO · R1
W · KO · R1
Volkov
Harris
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
50%
100%
6
KO / TKO Wins
6
1
Submission Wins
0
7
Decision Wins
0
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Volkov
Harris
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
5.8
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
10.0
1.8
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.0
1.2
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.0
0.7
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
5.7
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
8.2
5.5
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
0.8
VolkovHarris
Strike Zones
Volkov
Attacking
6 landedAbsorbing
1 absorbedHarris
Attacking
1 landedAbsorbing
6 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Volkov targets the head (83% of attacks) — Harris absorbs 83% of strikes there
🎯Harris targets the head (100% of attacks) — Volkov absorbs 100% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Volkov
RND
Harris
0/0R00/0
Volkov · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.5WinLossTrend
Harris · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.1WinLossTrend
Volkov · Last 5
W · Dec · R3
Waldo Cortes AcostaRating 6Decision
UFC 328: Chimaev vs. Strickland · 2026-05
W · Dec · R3
Jailton AlmeidaRating 6.3Decision
UFC 321: Aspinall vs. Gane · 2025-10
L · Dec · R3
Ciryl GaneRating 7.2Decision
UFC 310: Pantoja vs. Asakura · 2024-12
W · Dec · R3
Sergei PavlovichRating 5.7Decision
UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. Aliskerov · 2024-06
W · Sub · R2
Tai TuivasaRating 5.7Submission
UFC 293: Adesanya vs. Strickland · 2023-09
Harris · Last 5
L · KO · R1
Marcin TyburaRating 1.9KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Rozenstruik vs. Sakai · 2021-06
L · KO · R2
Alexander VolkovRating 4KO/TKO
UFC 254: Khabib vs. Gaethje · 2020-10
L · KO · R2
Alistair OvereemRating 2.1KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Harris · 2020-05
W · KO · R1
Aleksei OleinikRating 5KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Dos Anjos vs. Edwards · 2019-07
W · KO · R1
Serghei SpivacRating 5.5KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Iaquinta vs. Cowboy · 2019-05