UFC 257: Poirier vs. McGregor
Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates
23 Jan 2021
Women's Strawweight
VS
56%
Rodriguez
44%
Ribas
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 2 · 0:54
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Rodriguez
This is a genuine toss-up — Rodriguez at 56% vs Ribas at 44% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 11 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Striking split: Ribas throws more volume but Rodriguez connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
Risk flags
Rodriguez's chin rating of 48 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Ribas has a chin rating of 18 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Rodriguez
Ribas
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'6"+
Height
5'4"
65"
Reach
+66"
39
Age
+32
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Rodriguez
Ribas
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
48.6
37.5
41.7
Performance Avg
43.3
34
Quality of Victory
36
83
Momentum Score
28
Rodriguez
Ribas
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.5
2.0
48%
Strike Accuracy
45%
3.9
Striking Style Score (/10)
2.5
2 KOs
KO Finishes
1 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
12
Head
1
1
Body
0
0
Leg
0
RangeRange
3Distance0
3Clinch1
7Ground0
Rodriguez
Ribas
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
0.1
1.7
Grappling Style Score (/10)
3.7
1.2
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
2.6
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Rodriguez
Ribas
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
48
18
KO risk
Verdict
KO risk
2
KO/TKO Losses
3
0
Sub Losses
1
Avg R2.5 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R2.0 stoppage
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
15/23 fights
Chin rating based on
13/20 fights
Rodriguez
Ribas
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
83
28
3-fight 📉 slide
Current form
3-fight 📉 slide
L · KO · R2
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · KO · R2
L · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · KO · R2
L · Sub · R3
L · Dec · R5
W · KO · R3
L · KO · R2
Rodriguez
Ribas
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
29%
43%
2
KO / TKO Wins
1
0
Submission Wins
2
5
Decision Wins
4
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Rodriguez
Ribas
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
3.9
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
2.5
1.7
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
3.7
1.2
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
2.6
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
2.9
3.6
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
4.6
6.8
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
5.7
RodriguezRibas
Strike Zones
Rodriguez
Attacking
13 landedAbsorbing
1 absorbedRibas
Attacking
1 landedAbsorbing
13 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Rodriguez targets the head (92% of attacks) — Ribas absorbs 92% of strikes there
🎯Ribas targets the head (100% of attacks) — Rodriguez absorbs 100% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Rodriguez
RND
Ribas
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0
Rodriguez · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.3WinLossTrend
Ribas · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.9WinLossTrend
Rodriguez · Last 5
L · KO · R2
Gillian RobertsonRating 4KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. Figueiredo · 2025-05
L · Dec · R3
Iasmin LucindoRating 6.4Decision
UFC 307: Pereira vs. Rountree Jr. · 2024-10
L · Dec · R3
Jessica AndradeRating 6.3Decision
UFC 300: Pereira vs. Hill · 2024-04
W · KO · R2
Michelle Waterson-GomezRating 5.2KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Fiziev vs. Gamrot · 2023-09
L · Dec · R3
Virna JandirobaRating 6.2Decision
UFC 288: Sterling vs. Cejudo · 2023-05
Ribas · Last 5
L · KO · R2
Tabatha RicciRating 3.4KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. De Ridder · 2025-07
L · Sub · R3
Mackenzie DernRating 4Submission
UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Ribas 2 · 2025-01
L · Dec · R5
Rose NamajunasRating 6.9Decision
UFC Fight Night: Ribas vs. Namajunas · 2024-03
W · KO · R3
Luana PinheiroRating 5.5KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Craig · 2023-11
L · KO · R2
Maycee BarberRating 3.7KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs. Topuria · 2023-06