METRICS GUIDE

Every stat on this page, explained

All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.

★ Championship Bout · Ultimate Fighter 13 Welterweight Tournament
The Ultimate Fighter: Team Lesnar vs Team dos Santos Finale
Las Vegas, USA
4 Jun 2011
Ultimate Fighter 13 Welterweight Tournament
VS
25%
Nijem
75%
Ferguson
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 1 · 3:54
RN
Ramsey Nijem
9 – 6
5'11"75" reachOrthodox38 yrs2-fight slideWell-Rounded
CFR 15
Tony
Tony Ferguson
"El Cucuy"
26 – 11
Well-Rounded8-fight slide42 yrsOrthodox76" reach5'11"
CFR 45
★ Official Result
Tony FergusonwinsKO/TKOR1 · 3:54
def. Ramsey Nijem · The Ultimate Fighter: Team Lesnar vs Team dos Santos Finale

Fight Report

Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result

Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Ferguson
→
Actual result
Ferguson wins
KO/TKO · R1
Pre-fight analysis

Ferguson is a strong favourite at 75% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 30 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Risk flags

Nijem's chin rating of 20 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Ferguson has a chin rating of 12 — a potential KO vulnerability.

This Fight — Statistics

Actual stats from this bout
NijemFerguson
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Nijem
Ferguson
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'11"
Height
5'11"
75"
Reach
+76"
38+
Age
42
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Nijem
Ferguson
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
14.8
45.2
43.4
Performance Avg
54.2
39
Quality of Victory
49
51
Momentum Score
52
Nijem
Ferguson
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
5.0
/ 10
3.3
/ 10
4.3
Style: Pressure
6.1
5.8
Style: Volume
3.4
2 KO wins
Finish Rate (strikes)
3 KO wins
Per-minute strike stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Strike targetStrike target
10
Head
19
2
Body
1
0
Leg
1
RangeRange
12Distance14
0Clinch2
0Ground5
Nijem
Ferguson
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
1.4
/ 10
3.8
/ 10
1.0
Wrestling Style (/10)
2.7
0.0
Submission Style (/10)
4.0
0
Submission wins
6
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Nijem
Ferguson
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
20
12
KO risk
Verdict
KO risk
3
KO/TKO Losses
2
1
Sub Losses
3
Avg R1.7 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R3.5 stoppage
1 fight ago
Last KO loss
4 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
10/15 fights
Chin rating based on
24/37 fights
Nijem
Ferguson
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
51
52
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
8-fight 📉 slide
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R2
W · KO · R1
W · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R1
Last 5
L · Sub · R1
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R3
L · Sub · R4
L · KO · R2
Nijem
Ferguson
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
40%
60%
2
KO / TKO Wins
3
0
Submission Wins
6
3
Decision Wins
6

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Nijem
Ferguson
Striking5.0 / 3.3Volume5.8 / 3.4Grappling1.4 / 3.8Wrestling1.0 / 2.7Submission0.0 / 4.0Pressure4.3 / 6.1
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
5.0
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
3.3
1.4
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
3.8
1.0
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
2.7
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
4.0
4.3
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
6.1
5.8
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
3.4
Nijem
Strike Zones
Ferguson
Nijem
Attacking
10HEAD2BODY0LEGS12 landed
Absorbing
19HEAD1BODY1LEGS21 absorbed
Ferguson
Attacking
19HEAD1BODY1LEGS21 landed
Absorbing
10HEAD2BODY0LEGS12 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Nijem targets the head (83% of attacks) — Ferguson absorbs 83% of strikes there
🎯Ferguson targets the head (90% of attacks) — Nijem absorbs 90% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Nijem
RND
Ferguson
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0

Nijem · Last 5

L · Dec · R3
Andrew Holbrook
Decision
UFC on FOX: Dillashaw vs. Barao II · 2015-07
L · KO · R2
Diego Ferreira
KO/TKO
UFC 177: Dillashaw vs Soto · 2014-08
W · KO · R1
Beneil Dariush
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Minotauro vs Nelson · 2014-04
W · Dec · R3
Justin Edwards
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Rockhold vs Philippou · 2014-01
L · Sub · R1
James Vick
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Shogun vs Sonnen · 2013-08

Ferguson · Last 5

L · Sub · R1
Michael Chiesa
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. Nurmagomedov · 2024-08
L · Dec · R3
Paddy Pimblett
Decision
UFC 296: Edwards vs. Covington · 2023-12
L · Sub · R3
King Green
Submission
UFC 291: Poirier vs. Gaethje 2 · 2023-07
L · Sub · R4
Nate Diaz
Submission
UFC 279: Diaz vs. Ferguson · 2022-09
L · KO · R2
Michael Chandler
KO/TKO
UFC 274: Oliveira vs. Gaethje · 2022-05

News & Media

Ramsey Nijem · Tony Ferguson
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