★ Championship Bout · Ultimate Fighter 13 Welterweight Tournament
The Ultimate Fighter: Team Lesnar vs Team dos Santos Finale
Las Vegas, USA
4 Jun 2011
Ultimate Fighter 13 Welterweight Tournament
VS
25%
Nijem
75%
Ferguson
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 1 · 3:54
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Ferguson
Ferguson is a strong favourite at 75% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 30 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Ferguson has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Nijem's chin rating of 20 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Ferguson has a chin rating of 12 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Nijem
Ferguson
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'11"
Height
5'11"
75"
Reach
+76"
38+
Age
42
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Nijem
Ferguson
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
14.8
45.2
43.4
Performance Avg
54.2
39
Quality of Victory
49
51
Momentum Score
52
Nijem
Ferguson
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.3
1.9
42%
Strike Accuracy
47%
5.0
Striking Style Score (/10)
3.3
2 KOs
KO Finishes
3 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
10
Head
19
2
Body
1
0
Leg
1
RangeRange
12Distance14
0Clinch2
0Ground5
Nijem
Ferguson
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
—
Sub Attempts / fight
0.1
1.4
Grappling Style Score (/10)
3.8
1.0
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
2.7
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Nijem
Ferguson
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
20
12
KO risk
Verdict
KO risk
3
KO/TKO Losses
2
1
Sub Losses
3
Avg R1.7 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R3.5 stoppage
1 fight ago
Last KO loss
4 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
10/15 fights
Chin rating based on
24/37 fights
Nijem
Ferguson
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
51
52
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
8-fight 📉 slide
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R2
W · KO · R1
W · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R1
Last 5
L · Sub · R1
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R3
L · Sub · R4
L · KO · R2
Nijem
Ferguson
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
40%
60%
2
KO / TKO Wins
3
0
Submission Wins
6
3
Decision Wins
6
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Nijem
Ferguson
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
5.0
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
3.3
1.4
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
3.8
1.0
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
2.7
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
4.0
4.3
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
6.1
5.8
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
3.4
NijemFerguson
Strike Zones
Nijem
Attacking
12 landedAbsorbing
21 absorbedFerguson
Attacking
21 landedAbsorbing
12 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Nijem targets the head (83% of attacks) — Ferguson absorbs 83% of strikes there
🎯Ferguson targets the head (90% of attacks) — Nijem absorbs 90% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Nijem
RND
Ferguson
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0
Nijem · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.0WinLossTrend
Ferguson · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.0WinLossTrend
Nijem · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Andrew HolbrookRating 5.5Decision
UFC on FOX: Dillashaw vs. Barao II · 2015-07
L · KO · R2
Diego FerreiraRating 3.8KO/TKO
UFC 177: Dillashaw vs Soto · 2014-08
W · KO · R1
Beneil DariushRating 6KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Minotauro vs Nelson · 2014-04
W · Dec · R3
Justin EdwardsRating 4.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Rockhold vs Philippou · 2014-01
L · Sub · R1
James VickRating 1.5Submission
UFC Fight Night: Shogun vs Sonnen · 2013-08
Ferguson · Last 5
L · Sub · R1
Michael ChiesaRating 2.3Submission
UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. Nurmagomedov · 2024-08
L · Dec · R3
Paddy PimblettRating 7.2Decision
UFC 296: Edwards vs. Covington · 2023-12
L · Sub · R3
King GreenRating 4.7Submission
UFC 291: Poirier vs. Gaethje 2 · 2023-07
L · Sub · R4
Nate DiazRating 3.4Submission
UFC 279: Diaz vs. Ferguson · 2022-09
L · KO · R2
Michael ChandlerRating 3.5KO/TKO
UFC 274: Oliveira vs. Gaethje · 2022-05