UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. Neal
Las Vegas, USA
19 Dec 2020
Heavyweight
VS
59%
Tybura
41%
Hardy
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 2 · 4:31
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Tybura
This is a genuine toss-up — Tybura at 59% vs Hardy at 41% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 13 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Hardy has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 14 points.
Striking split: Hardy throws more volume but Tybura connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
Risk flags
Tybura's chin rating of 0 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Hardy has a chin rating of 30 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Tybura
Hardy
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'3"
Height
+6'5"
78"
Reach
+80"
40
Age
+37
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Tybura
Hardy
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
42.5
29.7
45.2
Performance Avg
47.8
37
Quality of Victory
50
58
Momentum Score
76
Tybura
Hardy
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.6
2.1
53%
Strike Accuracy
50%
4.0
Striking Style Score (/10)
8.4
4 KOs
KO Finishes
3 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
26
Head
6
5
Body
5
4
Leg
1
RangeRange
17Distance11
0Clinch1
18Ground0
Tybura
Hardy
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
—
1.9
Grappling Style Score (/10)
0.6
1.4
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
0.4
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Tybura
Hardy
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
0
30
2 consec. KOs
Verdict
3 consec. KOs
5
KO/TKO Losses
3
1
Sub Losses
0
Avg R1.6 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.3 stoppage
1 fight ago
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
24/38 fights
Chin rating based on
10/12 fights
Tybura
Hardy
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
58
76
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
3-fight 📉 slide
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
W · Dec · R3
W · R2
L · Sub · R1
Last 5
L · KO · R1
L · KO · R1
L · KO · R2
W · KO · R2
W · Dec · R3
Tybura
Hardy
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
36%
75%
4
KO / TKO Wins
3
1
Submission Wins
0
9
Decision Wins
1
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Tybura
Hardy
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
4.0
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
8.4
1.9
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.6
1.4
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.4
0.7
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
4.3
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
6.6
5.7
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
2.9
TyburaHardy
Strike Zones
Tybura
Attacking
35 landedAbsorbing
12 absorbedHardy
Attacking
12 landedAbsorbing
35 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Tybura targets the head (74% of attacks) — Hardy absorbs 74% of strikes there
🎯Hardy targets the head (50% of attacks) — Tybura absorbs 50% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Tybura
RND
Hardy
0/0R00/0
Tybura · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.7WinLossTrend
Hardy · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.3WinLossTrend
Tybura · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Tyrell FortuneRating 6.8Decision
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L · KO · R1
Ante DelijaRating 2.5KO/TKO
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W · Dec · R3
Mick ParkinRating 5.6Decision
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W · R2
Jhonata DinizRating 5.1UFC 309: Jones vs. Miocic · 2024-11
L · Sub · R1
Serghei SpivacRating 2Submission
UFC Fight Night: Tybura vs. Spivac 2 · 2024-08
Hardy · Last 5
L · KO · R1
Serghei SpivacRating 2KO/TKO
UFC 272: Covington vs. Masvidal · 2022-03
L · KO · R1
Tai TuivasaRating 1.9KO/TKO
UFC 264: Poirier vs. McGregor 3 · 2021-07
L · KO · R2
Marcin TyburaRating 3.1KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. Neal · 2020-12
W · KO · R2
Maurice GreeneRating 5.2KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Hall vs. Silva · 2020-10
W · Dec · R3
Yorgan De CastroRating 4.5Decision
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