UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. Aliskerov
Riyadh, Saudi Arabia
22 Jun 2024
Heavyweight
VS
50%
Pavlovich
50%
Volkov
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Pavlovich
This is a genuine toss-up — Pavlovich at 50% vs Volkov at 50% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
Pavlovich has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 10 points.
Striking split: Pavlovich throws more volume but Volkov connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
Risk flags
Pavlovich's chin rating of 54 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Volkov has a chin rating of 60 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Pavlovich
Volkov
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'3"
Height
+6'7"
84"+
Reach
80"
34+
Age
37
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
Pavlovich
Volkov
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
59.8
60.2
60.6
Performance Avg
54.7
53
Quality of Victory
42
59
Momentum Score
88
Pavlovich
Volkov
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
2.5
1.8
47%
Strike Accuracy
58%
8.9
Striking Style Score (/10)
5.8
6 KOs
KO Finishes
6 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
14
Head
17
1
Body
4
1
Leg
5
RangeRange
16Distance26
0Clinch0
0Ground0
Pavlovich
Volkov
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
0.6
/ 10
1.8
/ 10
0.4
Wrestling Style (/10)
1.2
0.0
Submission Style (/10)
0.7
0
Submission wins
1
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Pavlovich
Volkov
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
54
60
KO risk
Verdict
Moderate
2
KO/TKO Losses
1
0
Sub Losses
1
Avg R1.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R3.0 stoppage
4 fights ago
Last KO loss
14 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
12/23 fights
Chin rating based on
19/51 fights
Pavlovich
Volkov
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
59
88
2-fight 🔥 win streak
Current form
2-fight 🔥 win streak
Upcoming
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
Last 5
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R2
Pavlovich
Volkov
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
75%
50%
6
KO / TKO Wins
6
0
Submission Wins
1
2
Decision Wins
7
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Pavlovich
Volkov
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
8.9
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
5.8
0.6
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
1.8
0.4
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.2
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.7
7.4
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
5.7
3.5
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
5.5
PavlovichVolkov
Strike Zones
Pavlovich
Attacking
16 landedAbsorbing
26 absorbedVolkov
Attacking
26 landedAbsorbing
16 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Pavlovich targets the head (88% of attacks) — Volkov absorbs 88% of strikes there
🎯Volkov targets the head (65% of attacks) — Pavlovich absorbs 65% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Pavlovich
RND
Volkov
0/0R00/0
Pavlovich · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.1WinLossTrend
Volkov · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.5WinLossTrend
Pavlovich · Last 5
Upcoming
Tallison TeixeiraUFC Fight Night: Song vs. Figueiredo · 2026-05
W · Dec · R3
Waldo Cortes AcostaRating 6Decision
UFC Fight Night: Walker vs. Zhang · 2025-08
W · Dec · R3
Jairzinho RozenstruikRating 5.6Decision
UFC Fight Night: Adesanya vs. Imavov · 2025-02
L · Dec · R3
Alexander VolkovRating 6.8Decision
UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. Aliskerov · 2024-06
L · KO · R1
Tom AspinallRating 3.9KO/TKO
UFC 295: Prochazka vs. Pereira · 2023-11
Volkov · Last 5
W · Dec · R3
Waldo Cortes AcostaRating 6Decision
UFC 328: Chimaev vs. Strickland · 2026-05
W · Dec · R3
Jailton AlmeidaRating 6.3Decision
UFC 321: Aspinall vs. Gane · 2025-10
L · Dec · R3
Ciryl GaneRating 7.2Decision
UFC 310: Pantoja vs. Asakura · 2024-12
W · Dec · R3
Sergei PavlovichRating 5.7Decision
UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. Aliskerov · 2024-06
W · Sub · R2
Tai TuivasaRating 5.7Submission
UFC 293: Adesanya vs. Strickland · 2023-09