METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
UFC 99: The Comeback
Cologne, Germany
13 Jun 2009
Lightweight
VS
52%
Kelly
48%
Delgado
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
★ Official Result
Paul KellywinsDecisionR3 · 5:00
def. Rolando Delgado · UFC 99: The Comeback
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Kelly
→
Actual result
Kelly wins
Decision · R3
Pre-fight analysis
This is a genuine toss-up — Kelly at 52% vs Delgado at 48% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
Delgado has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 14 points.
Kelly has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Kelly's chin rating of 52 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
KellyDelgado
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Kelly
Delgado
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'9"
Height
+6'3"
70"
Reach
+77"
41+
Age
44
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Kelly
Delgado
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
19.1
17.6
43.8
Performance Avg
43.0
36
Quality of Victory
50
99
Momentum Score
43
Kelly
Delgado
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
1.4
0.6
41%
Strike Accuracy
24%
3.1
Striking Style Score (/10)
0.7
1 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
17
Head
2
2
Body
0
1
Leg
1
RangeRange
2Distance3
0Clinch0
18Ground0
Kelly
Delgado
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
—
—
0.5
Sub Attempts / fight
—
3.0
Grappling Style Score (/10)
8.0
2.1
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
5.6
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Kelly
Delgado
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
52
76
KO risk
Verdict
Moderate
1
KO/TKO Losses
1
2
Sub Losses
0
Avg R2.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
4 fights ago
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
9/19 fights
Chin rating based on
3/17 fights
Kelly
Delgado
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
99
43
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
L · Sub · R2
W · KO · R2
L · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R2
L · KO · R2
Last 5
L · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R2
Kelly
Delgado
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
40%
100%
1
KO / TKO Wins
0
1
Submission Wins
1
3
Decision Wins
0
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Kelly
Delgado
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
3.1
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.7
3.0
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
8.0
2.1
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
5.6
2.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
10.0
4.5
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
8.0
5.9
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
0.7
KellyDelgado
Strike Zones
Kelly
Attacking
20 landedAbsorbing
3 absorbedDelgado
Attacking
3 landedAbsorbing
20 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Kelly targets the head (85% of attacks) — Delgado absorbs 85% of strikes there
🎯Delgado targets the head (67% of attacks) — Kelly absorbs 67% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Kelly
RND
Delgado
0/0R00/0
Kelly · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.2WinLossTrend
Delgado · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.1WinLossTrend
Kelly · Last 5
L · Sub · R2
Donald CerroneRating 2.8Submission
UFC 126: Silva vs Belfort · 2011-02
W · KO · R2
TJ O'BrienRating 5.2KO/TKO
UFC 123: Rampage vs Machida · 2010-11
L · Dec · R3
Jacob VolkmannRating 5.5Decision
UFC Live: Jones vs Matyushenko · 2010-08
W · Sub · R2
Matt VeachRating 5.2Submission
UFC 112: Invincible · 2010-04
L · KO · R2
Dennis SiverRating 2.8KO/TKO
UFC 105: Couture vs Vera · 2009-11
Delgado · Last 3
L · KO · R1
Andre WinnerRating 1.5KO/TKO
UFC 105: Couture vs Vera · 2009-11
L · Dec · R3
Paul KellyRating 5.5Decision
UFC 99: The Comeback · 2009-06
W · Sub · R2
John PolakowskiRating 5.2Submission
The Ultimate Fighter: Team Nogueira vs. Team Mir Finale · 2008-12