UFC 99: The Comeback
Cologne, Germany
13 Jun 2009
Lightweight
VS
52%
Kelly
48%
Delgado
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
PK
Paul Kelly
14 – 5
5'9"70" reachOrthodox41 yrsWell-Rounded
CFR 19
RD
Rolando Delgado
"Roli"
11 – 6
Submission Hunter2-fight slide44 yrsOrthodox77" reach6'3"
CFR 18

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Kelly

This is a genuine toss-up — Kelly at 52% vs Delgado at 48% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

Delgado has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 14 points.

Kelly has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Risk flags

Kelly's chin rating of 52 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Kelly
Delgado
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'9"
Height
+6'3"
70"
Reach
+77"
41+
Age
44
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Kelly
Delgado
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
19.1
17.6
43.8
Performance Avg
43.0
36
Quality of Victory
50
99
Momentum Score
43
Kelly
Delgado
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.4
0.6
41%
Strike Accuracy
24%
3.1
Striking Style Score (/10)
0.7
1 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
17
Head
2
2
Body
0
1
Leg
1
RangeRange
2Distance3
0Clinch0
18Ground0
Kelly
Delgado
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.5
Sub Attempts / fight
—
3.0
Grappling Style Score (/10)
8.0
2.1
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
5.6
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Kelly
Delgado
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
52
76
KO risk
Verdict
Moderate
1
KO/TKO Losses
1
2
Sub Losses
0
Avg R2.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
4 fights ago
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
9/19 fights
Chin rating based on
3/17 fights
Kelly
Delgado
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
99
43
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
L · Sub · R2
W · KO · R2
L · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R2
L · KO · R2
Last 5
L · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R2
Kelly
Delgado
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
40%
100%
1
KO / TKO Wins
0
1
Submission Wins
1
3
Decision Wins
0

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Kelly
Delgado
Striking3.1 / 0.7Volume5.9 / 0.7Grappling3.0 / 8.0Wrestling2.1 / 5.6Submission2.0 / 10.0Pressure4.5 / 8.0
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
3.1
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.7
3.0
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
8.0
2.1
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
5.6
2.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
10.0
4.5
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
8.0
5.9
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
0.7
Kelly
Strike Zones
Delgado
Kelly
Attacking
17HEAD2BODY1LEGS20 landed
Absorbing
2HEAD0BODY1LEGS3 absorbed
Delgado
Attacking
2HEAD0BODY1LEGS3 landed
Absorbing
17HEAD2BODY1LEGS20 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Kelly targets the head (85% of attacks) — Delgado absorbs 85% of strikes there
🎯Delgado targets the head (67% of attacks) — Kelly absorbs 67% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Kelly
RND
Delgado
0/0R00/0

Kelly · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.2
0104.5W2.8L4.5W4.5W2.8L5.2W5.5L5.2W2.8L2008-012009-062010-082011-02
WinLossTrend

Delgado · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.1
0105.2W5.5L1.5L2008-122009-062009-11
WinLossTrend

Kelly · Last 5

L · Sub · R2
Donald CerroneRating 2.8
Submission
UFC 126: Silva vs Belfort · 2011-02
W · KO · R2
TJ O'BrienRating 5.2
KO/TKO
UFC 123: Rampage vs Machida · 2010-11
L · Dec · R3
Jacob VolkmannRating 5.5
Decision
UFC Live: Jones vs Matyushenko · 2010-08
W · Sub · R2
Matt VeachRating 5.2
Submission
UFC 112: Invincible · 2010-04
L · KO · R2
Dennis SiverRating 2.8
KO/TKO
UFC 105: Couture vs Vera · 2009-11

Delgado · Last 3

L · KO · R1
Andre WinnerRating 1.5
KO/TKO
UFC 105: Couture vs Vera · 2009-11
L · Dec · R3
Paul KellyRating 5.5
Decision
UFC 99: The Comeback · 2009-06
W · Sub · R2
John PolakowskiRating 5.2
Submission
The Ultimate Fighter: Team Nogueira vs. Team Mir Finale · 2008-12

News & Media

Paul Kelly · Rolando Delgado
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