UFC Fight Night: Ribas vs. Namajunas
Las Vegas, USA
23 Mar 2024
Heavyweight
VS
41%
Williams
59%
Tafa
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Tafa
This is a genuine toss-up — Williams at 41% vs Tafa at 59% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 20 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Tafa has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 35 points.
Striking split: Tafa throws more volume but Williams connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
Risk flags
Tafa has a chin rating of 50 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Williams
Tafa
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'3"+
Height
6'0"
79"+
Reach
74"
36
Age
+32
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
Williams
Tafa
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
45.6
66.1
45.0
Performance Avg
53.8
25
Quality of Victory
60
78
Momentum Score
98
Williams
Tafa
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
0.9
1.7
55%
Strike Accuracy
54%
1.5
Striking Style Score (/10)
10.0
0 KOs
KO Finishes
4 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
4
Head
6
1
Body
0
3
Leg
0
RangeRange
3Distance4
0Clinch2
5Ground0
Williams
Tafa
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
2.4
/ 10
0.0
/ 10
1.7
Wrestling Style (/10)
0.0
0.0
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
0
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Williams
Tafa
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
98
50
Never stopped
Verdict
KO risk
0
KO/TKO Losses
2
0
Sub Losses
0
—
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
—
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
4/12 fights
Chin rating based on
10/12 fights
Williams
Tafa
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
78
98
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
W · KO · R1
Upcoming
W · KO · R1
Williams
Tafa
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
0%
100%
0
KO / TKO Wins
4
0
Submission Wins
0
3
Decision Wins
0
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Williams
Tafa
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
1.5
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
10.0
2.4
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.0
1.7
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.0
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
2.3
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
8.3
9.5
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
0.9
WilliamsTafa
Strike Zones
Williams
Attacking
8 landedAbsorbing
6 absorbedTafa
Attacking
6 landedAbsorbing
8 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Williams targets the head (50% of attacks) — Tafa absorbs 50% of strikes there
🎯Tafa targets the head (100% of attacks) — Williams absorbs 100% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Williams
RND
Tafa
0/0R00/0
Williams · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.3WinLossTrend
Tafa · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.6WinLossTrend
Williams · Last 4
L · Dec · R3
Jhonata DinizRating 6.3Decision
UFC Fight Night: Tybura vs. Spivac 2 · 2024-08
W · Dec · R3
Justin TafaRating 6.1Decision
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W · Dec · R3
Chase ShermanRating 4.5Decision
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W · Dec · R3
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Tafa · Last 5
L · KO · R1
Tallison TeixeiraRating 2.7KO/TKO
UFC 312: Du Plessis vs. Strickland 2 · 2025-02
L · Dec · R3
Karl WilliamsRating 6Decision
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W · KO · R1
Austen LaneRating 5KO/TKO
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Upcoming
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