METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
UFC 272: Covington vs. Masvidal
Las Vegas, USA
5 Mar 2022
Heavyweight
VS
60%
Spivac
40%
Hardy
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 1 · 2:16
★ Official Result
Serghei SpivacwinsKO/TKOR1 · 2:16
def. Greg Hardy · UFC 272: Covington vs. Masvidal
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Spivac
→
Actual result
Spivac wins
KO/TKO · R1
Pre-fight analysis
Spivac holds a meaningful edge at 60% per the CFR ratings — but Hardy has real paths to victory.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 14 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Risk flags
Spivac's chin rating of 6 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Hardy has a chin rating of 30 — a potential KO vulnerability.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
SpivacHardy
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Spivac
Hardy
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'3"
Height
+6'5"
78"
Reach
+80"
31+
Age
38
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Spivac
Hardy
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
44.1
29.7
50.5
Performance Avg
47.8
47
Quality of Victory
50
33
Momentum Score
76
Spivac
Hardy
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
4.5
/ 10
8.4
/ 10
6.3
Style: Pressure
6.6
3.8
Style: Volume
2.9
3 KO wins
Finish Rate (strikes)
3 KO wins
Per-minute strike stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Strike targetStrike target
14
Head
3
0
Body
1
0
Leg
3
RangeRange
0Distance7
0Clinch0
14Ground0
Spivac
Hardy
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
3.5
/ 10
0.6
/ 10
2.4
Wrestling Style (/10)
0.4
3.3
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
3
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Spivac
Hardy
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
6
30
KO risk
Verdict
3 consec. KOs
4
KO/TKO Losses
3
0
Sub Losses
0
Avg R1.3 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.3 stoppage
3 fights ago
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
16/24 fights
Chin rating based on
10/12 fights
Spivac
Hardy
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
33
76
Current form
3-fight 📉 slide
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
W · Sub · R1
Last 5
L · KO · R1
L · KO · R1
L · KO · R2
W · KO · R2
W · Dec · R3
Spivac
Hardy
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
67%
75%
3
KO / TKO Wins
3
3
Submission Wins
0
3
Decision Wins
1
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Spivac
Hardy
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
4.5
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
8.4
3.5
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.6
2.4
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.4
3.3
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
6.3
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
6.6
3.8
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
2.9
SpivacHardy
Strike Zones
Spivac
Attacking
14 landedAbsorbing
7 absorbedHardy
Attacking
7 landedAbsorbing
14 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Spivac targets the head (100% of attacks) — Hardy absorbs 100% of strikes there
🎯Hardy targets the head (43% of attacks) — Spivac absorbs 43% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Spivac
RND
Hardy
0/0R00/0
Spivac · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
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L · KO · R1
Jailton AlmeidaKO/TKO
UFC 311: Makhachev vs. Moicano · 2025-01
W · Sub · R1
Marcin TyburaSubmission
UFC Fight Night: Tybura vs. Spivac 2 · 2024-08
Hardy · Last 5
L · KO · R1
Serghei SpivacKO/TKO
UFC 272: Covington vs. Masvidal · 2022-03
L · KO · R1
Tai TuivasaKO/TKO
UFC 264: Poirier vs. McGregor 3 · 2021-07
L · KO · R2
Marcin TyburaKO/TKO
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W · KO · R2
Maurice GreeneKO/TKO
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W · Dec · R3
Yorgan De CastroDecision
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