UFC 272: Covington vs. Masvidal
Las Vegas, USA
5 Mar 2022
Heavyweight
VS
60%
Spivac
40%
Hardy
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 1 · 2:16
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Spivac
Spivac holds a meaningful edge at 60% per the CFR ratings — but Hardy has real paths to victory.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 15 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Hardy has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Spivac's chin rating of 8 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Hardy has a chin rating of 30 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Spivac
Hardy
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'3"
Height
+6'5"
78"
Reach
+80"
31+
Age
37
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Spivac
Hardy
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
45.1
29.7
52.0
Performance Avg
47.8
47
Quality of Victory
50
33
Momentum Score
76
Spivac
Hardy
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.8
2.1
50%
Strike Accuracy
50%
4.5
Striking Style Score (/10)
8.4
3 KOs
KO Finishes
3 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
14
Head
3
0
Body
1
0
Leg
3
RangeRange
0Distance7
0Clinch0
14Ground0
Spivac
Hardy
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
—
3.5
Grappling Style Score (/10)
0.6
2.4
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
0.4
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Spivac
Hardy
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
8
30
KO risk
Verdict
3 consec. KOs
4
KO/TKO Losses
3
0
Sub Losses
0
Avg R1.3 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.3 stoppage
2 fights ago
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
15/24 fights
Chin rating based on
10/12 fights
Spivac
Hardy
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
33
76
Current form
3-fight 📉 slide
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
W · Sub · R1
L · KO · R2
Last 5
L · KO · R1
L · KO · R1
L · KO · R2
W · KO · R2
W · Dec · R3
Spivac
Hardy
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
67%
75%
3
KO / TKO Wins
3
3
Submission Wins
0
3
Decision Wins
1
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Spivac
Hardy
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
4.5
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
8.4
3.5
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.6
2.4
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.4
3.3
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
6.5
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
6.6
3.9
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
2.9
SpivacHardy
Strike Zones
Spivac
Attacking
14 landedAbsorbing
7 absorbedHardy
Attacking
7 landedAbsorbing
14 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Spivac targets the head (100% of attacks) — Hardy absorbs 100% of strikes there
🎯Hardy targets the head (43% of attacks) — Spivac absorbs 43% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Spivac
RND
Hardy
0/0R00/0
Spivac · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.9WinLossTrend
Hardy · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.3WinLossTrend
Spivac · Last 5
W · Dec · R3
Ante DelijaRating 5.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Strickland vs. Hernandez · 2026-02
L · Dec · R3
Waldo Cortes AcostaRating 7Decision
UFC 316: Dvalishvili vs. O'Malley 2 · 2025-06
L · KO · R1
Jailton AlmeidaRating 3.3KO/TKO
UFC 311: Makhachev vs. Moicano · 2025-01
W · Sub · R1
Marcin TyburaRating 5.4Submission
UFC Fight Night: Tybura vs. Spivac 2 · 2024-08
L · KO · R2
Ciryl GaneRating 3.9KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Gane vs. Spivac · 2023-09
Hardy · Last 5
L · KO · R1
Serghei SpivacRating 2KO/TKO
UFC 272: Covington vs. Masvidal · 2022-03
L · KO · R1
Tai TuivasaRating 1.9KO/TKO
UFC 264: Poirier vs. McGregor 3 · 2021-07
L · KO · R2
Marcin TyburaRating 3.1KO/TKO
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W · KO · R2
Maurice GreeneRating 5.2KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Hall vs. Silva · 2020-10
W · Dec · R3
Yorgan De CastroRating 4.5Decision
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