UFC 286: Edwards vs. Usman 3
London, United Kingdom
18 Mar 2023
Lightweight
VS
70%
Duncan
30%
Morales
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Duncan
Duncan is a strong favourite at 70% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 35 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Duncan has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 14 points.
Duncan has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Morales has a chin rating of 62 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Duncan
Morales
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'10"
Height
+5'11"
71"
Reach
+73"
33+
Age
40
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Duncan
Morales
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
60.4
25.6
53.2
Performance Avg
32.1
39
Quality of Victory
25
89
Momentum Score
45
Duncan
Morales
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
2.5
1.4
50%
Strike Accuracy
39%
1.5
Striking Style Score (/10)
0.9
0 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
5
Head
10
6
Body
1
4
Leg
3
RangeRange
13Distance13
0Clinch1
2Ground0
Duncan
Morales
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
—
Sub Attempts / fight
0.2
5.2
Grappling Style Score (/10)
2.4
3.6
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
1.7
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Duncan
Morales
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
76
62
Never stopped
Verdict
Moderate
0
KO/TKO Losses
1
2
Sub Losses
1
—
KO round context
Avg R2.0 stoppage
—
Last KO loss
1 fight ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
8/18 fights
Chin rating based on
7/15 fights
Duncan
Morales
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
89
45
Current form
3-fight 📉 slide
L · Sub · R2
W · Sub · R1
W · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R2
W · Sub · R1
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R2
L · Sub · R2
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
Duncan
Morales
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
50%
0%
0
KO / TKO Wins
0
3
Submission Wins
0
3
Decision Wins
3
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Duncan
Morales
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
1.5
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.9
5.2
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.4
3.6
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.7
5.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
5.8
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
1.3
5.5
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
8.9
DuncanMorales
Strike Zones
Duncan
Attacking
15 landedAbsorbing
14 absorbedMorales
Attacking
14 landedAbsorbing
15 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Duncan targets the body (40% of attacks) — Morales absorbs 40% of strikes there
🎯Morales targets the head (71% of attacks) — Duncan absorbs 71% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Duncan
RND
Morales
0/0R00/0
Duncan · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.8WinLossTrend
Morales · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.0WinLossTrend
Duncan · Last 5
L · Sub · R2
Renato MoicanoRating 2.9Submission
UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Duncan · 2026-04
W · Sub · R1
Terrance McKinneyRating 6.5Submission
UFC 323: Dvalishvili vs. Yan 2 · 2025-12
W · Dec · R3
Mateusz RebeckiRating 5.1Decision
UFC Fight Night: Taira vs. Park · 2025-08
W · Sub · R2
Jordan VucenicRating 5.2Submission
UFC Fight Night: Edwards vs. Brady · 2025-03
W · Sub · R1
Bolaji OkiRating 5Submission
UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Saint Denis · 2024-09
Morales · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Chris DuncanRating 6.8Decision
UFC 286: Edwards vs. Usman 3 · 2023-03
L · KO · R2
Uros MedicRating 4.6KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Holm vs. Vieira · 2022-05
L · Sub · R2
Jonathan PearceRating 3.2Submission
UFC 266: Volkanovski vs. Ortega · 2021-09
W · Dec · R3
Shane YoungRating 4.5Decision
UFC 260: Miocic vs. Ngannou · 2021-03
L · Dec · R3
Giga ChikadzeRating 6.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Moraes vs. Sandhagen · 2020-10