METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
UFC Live: Cruz vs Johnson
Washington, USA
1 Oct 2011
Lightweight
VS
39%
Roller
61%
Grant
Win Probability
Submission
Round 3 · 2:12
★ Official Result
TJ GrantwinsSubmissionR3 · 2:12
def. Shane Roller · UFC Live: Cruz vs Johnson
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Grant
→
Actual result
Grant wins
Submission · R3
Pre-fight analysis
Grant holds a meaningful edge at 61% per the CFR ratings — but Roller has real paths to victory.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 8 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Grant has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Roller's chin rating of 52 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
RollerGrant
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Roller
Grant
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'10"
Height
5'10"
72"
Reach
72"
47
Age
+42
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Roller
Grant
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
13.2
20.8
37.3
Performance Avg
53.5
40
Quality of Victory
41
28
Momentum Score
75
Roller
Grant
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
0.8
1.9
41%
Strike Accuracy
54%
5.7
Striking Style Score (/10)
5.2
1 KOs
KO Finishes
3 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
2
Head
4
0
Body
0
0
Leg
0
RangeRange
2Distance4
0Clinch0
0Ground0
Roller
Grant
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
—
—
—
Sub Attempts / fight
0.4
1.2
Grappling Style Score (/10)
2.2
0.8
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
1.5
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Roller
Grant
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
52
94
KO risk
Verdict
Never stopped
1
KO/TKO Losses
0
2
Sub Losses
0
Avg R1.0 stoppage
KO round context
—
4 fights ago
Last KO loss
—
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
6/18 fights
Chin rating based on
11/26 fights
Roller
Grant
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
28
75
Current form
5-fight 🔥 win streak
L · Sub · R1
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R3
L · KO · R1
Last 5
W · KO · R1
W · KO · R1
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R3
Roller
Grant
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
50%
50%
1
KO / TKO Wins
3
0
Submission Wins
1
1
Decision Wins
4
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Roller
Grant
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
5.7
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
5.2
1.2
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.2
0.8
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.5
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
1.3
4.5
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
5.7
4.7
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
5.5
RollerGrant
Strike Zones
Roller
Attacking
2 landedAbsorbing
4 absorbedGrant
Attacking
4 landedAbsorbing
2 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Roller targets the head (100% of attacks) — Grant absorbs 100% of strikes there
🎯Grant targets the head (100% of attacks) — Roller absorbs 100% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Roller
RND
Grant
0/0R00/0
Roller · QOF Timeline
Avg: 3.7WinLossTrend
Grant · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.0WinLossTrend
Roller · Last 5
L · Sub · R1
Jacob VolkmannRating 1.5Submission
UFC on FX: Browne vs Bigfoot · 2012-10
W · Dec · R3
John AlessioRating 4.5Decision
UFC 148: Silva vs Sonnen 2 · 2012-07
L · Dec · R3
Michael JohnsonRating 5.6Decision
UFC on FOX: Evans vs Davis · 2012-01
L · Sub · R3
TJ GrantRating 4Submission
UFC Live: Cruz vs Johnson · 2011-10
L · KO · R1
Melvin GuillardRating 1.5KO/TKO
UFC 132: Cruz vs Faber · 2011-07
Grant · Last 5
W · KO · R1
Gray MaynardRating 5KO/TKO
UFC 160: Velasquez vs Silva 2 · 2013-05
W · KO · R1
Matt WimanRating 5KO/TKO
UFC on FOX: Johnson vs Dodson · 2013-01
W · Dec · R3
Evan DunhamRating 4.5Decision
UFC 152: Jones vs Belfort · 2012-09
W · Dec · R3
Carlo PraterRating 4.5Decision
UFC on FUEL TV: Korean Zombie vs Poirier · 2012-05
W · Sub · R3
Shane RollerRating 5.5Submission
UFC Live: Cruz vs Johnson · 2011-10