UFC 95: Sanchez vs Stevenson
London, United Kingdom
21 Feb 2009
Welterweight
VS
45%
Kelly
55%
Mandaloniz
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
PK
Paul Kelly
14 – 5
5'9"70" reachOrthodox41 yrsWell-Rounded
CFR 19
TM
Troy Mandaloniz
"Rude Boy"
3 – 2
Knockout Artist46 yrsOrthodox5'9"
CFR 23

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Mandaloniz

This is a genuine toss-up — Kelly at 45% vs Mandaloniz at 55% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

Mandaloniz has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 24 points.

Mandaloniz has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Risk flags

Kelly's chin rating of 52 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Kelly
Mandaloniz
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'9"
Height
5'9"
70"
Reach
41+
Age
46
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Kelly
Mandaloniz
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
19.1
23.0
43.8
Performance Avg
56.0
36
Quality of Victory
60
99
Momentum Score
71
Kelly
Mandaloniz
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.4
2.4
41%
Strike Accuracy
59%
3.1
Striking Style Score (/10)
10.0
1 KOs
KO Finishes
1 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
11
Head
12
2
Body
0
6
Leg
0
RangeRange
17Distance12
1Clinch0
1Ground0
Kelly
Mandaloniz
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.5
Sub Attempts / fight
—
3.0
Grappling Style Score (/10)
0.0
2.1
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
0.0
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Kelly
Mandaloniz
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
52
98
KO risk
Verdict
Never stopped
1
KO/TKO Losses
0
2
Sub Losses
0
Avg R2.0 stoppage
KO round context
—
4 fights ago
Last KO loss
—
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
9/19 fights
Chin rating based on
2/5 fights
Kelly
Mandaloniz
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
99
71
L · Sub · R2
W · KO · R2
L · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R2
L · KO · R2
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
W · KO · R1
Kelly
Mandaloniz
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
40%
100%
1
KO / TKO Wins
1
1
Submission Wins
0
3
Decision Wins
0

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Kelly
Mandaloniz
Striking3.1 / 10.0Volume5.9 / 1.0Grappling3.0 / 0.0Wrestling2.1 / 0.0Submission2.0 / 0.0Pressure4.5 / 8.5
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
3.1
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
10.0
3.0
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.0
2.1
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.0
2.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
4.5
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
8.5
5.9
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
1.0
Kelly
Strike Zones
Mandaloniz
Kelly
Attacking
11HEAD2BODY6LEGS19 landed
Absorbing
12HEAD0BODY0LEGS12 absorbed
Mandaloniz
Attacking
12HEAD0BODY0LEGS12 landed
Absorbing
11HEAD2BODY6LEGS19 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Kelly targets the head (58% of attacks) — Mandaloniz absorbs 58% of strikes there
🎯Mandaloniz targets the head (100% of attacks) — Kelly absorbs 100% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Kelly
RND
Mandaloniz
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0

Kelly · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.2
0104.5W2.8L4.5W4.5W2.8L5.2W5.5L5.2W2.8L2008-012009-062010-082011-02
WinLossTrend

Mandaloniz · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.3
0105.0W5.5L2007-122009-02
WinLossTrend

Kelly · Last 5

L · Sub · R2
Donald CerroneRating 2.8
Submission
UFC 126: Silva vs Belfort · 2011-02
W · KO · R2
TJ O'BrienRating 5.2
KO/TKO
UFC 123: Rampage vs Machida · 2010-11
L · Dec · R3
Jacob VolkmannRating 5.5
Decision
UFC Live: Jones vs Matyushenko · 2010-08
W · Sub · R2
Matt VeachRating 5.2
Submission
UFC 112: Invincible · 2010-04
L · KO · R2
Dennis SiverRating 2.8
KO/TKO
UFC 105: Couture vs Vera · 2009-11

Mandaloniz · Last 2

L · Dec · R3
Paul KellyRating 5.5
Decision
UFC 95: Sanchez vs Stevenson · 2009-02
W · KO · R1
Richie HightowerRating 5
KO/TKO
The Ultimate Fighter: Team Hughes vs. Team Serra Finale · 2007-12

News & Media

Paul Kelly · Troy Mandaloniz
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