METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
UFC 95: Sanchez vs Stevenson
London, United Kingdom
21 Feb 2009
Welterweight
VS
45%
Kelly
55%
Mandaloniz
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
★ Official Result
Paul KellywinsDecisionR3 · 5:00
def. Troy Mandaloniz · UFC 95: Sanchez vs Stevenson
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Mandaloniz
→
Actual result
Kelly wins
Decision · R3
Pre-fight analysis
This is a genuine toss-up — Kelly at 45% vs Mandaloniz at 55% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
Mandaloniz has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 24 points.
Mandaloniz has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Kelly's chin rating of 52 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
KellyMandaloniz
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Kelly
Mandaloniz
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'9"
Height
5'9"
70"
Reach
41+
Age
46
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Kelly
Mandaloniz
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
19.1
23.0
43.8
Performance Avg
56.0
36
Quality of Victory
60
99
Momentum Score
71
Kelly
Mandaloniz
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
1.4
2.4
41%
Strike Accuracy
59%
3.1
Striking Style Score (/10)
10.0
1 KOs
KO Finishes
1 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
11
Head
12
2
Body
0
6
Leg
0
RangeRange
17Distance12
1Clinch0
1Ground0
Kelly
Mandaloniz
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
—
—
0.5
Sub Attempts / fight
—
3.0
Grappling Style Score (/10)
0.0
2.1
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
0.0
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Kelly
Mandaloniz
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
52
98
KO risk
Verdict
Never stopped
1
KO/TKO Losses
0
2
Sub Losses
0
Avg R2.0 stoppage
KO round context
—
4 fights ago
Last KO loss
—
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
9/19 fights
Chin rating based on
2/5 fights
Kelly
Mandaloniz
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
99
71
L · Sub · R2
W · KO · R2
L · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R2
L · KO · R2
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
W · KO · R1
Kelly
Mandaloniz
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
40%
100%
1
KO / TKO Wins
1
1
Submission Wins
0
3
Decision Wins
0
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Kelly
Mandaloniz
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
3.1
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
10.0
3.0
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.0
2.1
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.0
2.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
4.5
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
8.5
5.9
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
1.0
KellyMandaloniz
Strike Zones
Kelly
Attacking
19 landedAbsorbing
12 absorbedMandaloniz
Attacking
12 landedAbsorbing
19 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Kelly targets the head (58% of attacks) — Mandaloniz absorbs 58% of strikes there
🎯Mandaloniz targets the head (100% of attacks) — Kelly absorbs 100% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Kelly
RND
Mandaloniz
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0
Kelly · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.2WinLossTrend
Mandaloniz · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.3WinLossTrend
Kelly · Last 5
L · Sub · R2
Donald CerroneRating 2.8Submission
UFC 126: Silva vs Belfort · 2011-02
W · KO · R2
TJ O'BrienRating 5.2KO/TKO
UFC 123: Rampage vs Machida · 2010-11
L · Dec · R3
Jacob VolkmannRating 5.5Decision
UFC Live: Jones vs Matyushenko · 2010-08
W · Sub · R2
Matt VeachRating 5.2Submission
UFC 112: Invincible · 2010-04
L · KO · R2
Dennis SiverRating 2.8KO/TKO
UFC 105: Couture vs Vera · 2009-11
Mandaloniz · Last 2
L · Dec · R3
Paul KellyRating 5.5Decision
UFC 95: Sanchez vs Stevenson · 2009-02
W · KO · R1
Richie HightowerRating 5KO/TKO
The Ultimate Fighter: Team Hughes vs. Team Serra Finale · 2007-12