UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Ribas 2
Las Vegas, USA
11 Jan 2025
Welterweight
VS
48%
Ponzinibbio
52%
Harris
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 3 · 3:13
Santiago
Santiago Ponzinibbio
"Argentine Dagger"
31 – 9
6'0"73" reachOrthodox39 yrsStriker
CFR 46
Carlston
Carlston Harris
"Mocambique"
19 – 7
Well-Rounded2-fight slide38 yrsOrthodox76" reach6'0"
CFR 51

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Harris

This is a genuine toss-up — Ponzinibbio at 48% vs Harris at 52% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

Ponzinibbio has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Risk flags

Ponzinibbio's chin rating of 4 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Harris has a chin rating of 34 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Ponzinibbio
Harris
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'0"
Height
6'0"
73"
Reach
+76"
39
Age
+38
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Ponzinibbio
Harris
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
45.7
50.5
50.5
Performance Avg
50.5
44
Quality of Victory
46
46
Momentum Score
51
Ponzinibbio
Harris
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
2.1
1.6
45%
Strike Accuracy
44%
7.0
Striking Style Score (/10)
3.6
7 KOs
KO Finishes
1 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
23
Head
5
2
Body
3
2
Leg
0
RangeRange
23Distance8
0Clinch0
4Ground0
Ponzinibbio
Harris
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
1.0
/ 10
4.6
/ 10
0.7
Wrestling Style (/10)
3.2
0.0
Submission Style (/10)
5.0
0
Submission wins
2
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Ponzinibbio
Harris
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
4
34
KO risk
Verdict
2 consec. KOs
4
KO/TKO Losses
3
0
Sub Losses
0
Avg R2.3 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.7 stoppage
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
20/40 fights
Chin rating based on
7/26 fights
Ponzinibbio
Harris
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
46
51
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
L · KO · R3
W · KO · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R3
W · KO · R3
Last 5
L · KO · R3
L · KO · R1
W · Sub · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
Ponzinibbio
Harris
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
58%
75%
7
KO / TKO Wins
1
0
Submission Wins
2
5
Decision Wins
1

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Ponzinibbio
Harris
Striking7.0 / 3.6Volume4.5 / 3.1Grappling1.0 / 4.6Wrestling0.7 / 3.2Submission0.0 / 5.0Pressure5.9 / 7.0
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
7.0
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
3.6
1.0
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
4.6
0.7
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
3.2
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
5.0
5.9
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
7.0
4.5
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
3.1
Ponzinibbio
Strike Zones
Harris
Ponzinibbio
Attacking
23HEAD2BODY2LEGS27 landed
Absorbing
5HEAD3BODY0LEGS8 absorbed
Harris
Attacking
5HEAD3BODY0LEGS8 landed
Absorbing
23HEAD2BODY2LEGS27 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Ponzinibbio targets the head (85% of attacks) — Harris absorbs 85% of strikes there
🎯Harris targets the head (63% of attacks) — Ponzinibbio absorbs 63% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Ponzinibbio
RND
Harris
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0

Ponzinibbio · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.1
0105.5L5.0W5.6W2.8L5.0W5.2W4.9W4.5W6.1W4.5W6.0W2.3L5.1W6.5L6.1L5.5W4.6L6.5L6.3W4.9L2013-112016-042018-112022-122025-05
WinLossTrend

Harris · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.7
0105.0W5.0W3.6L5.0W6.9W2.9L4.5L2021-052022-022023-082025-01
WinLossTrend

Ponzinibbio · Last 5

L · KO · R3
Daniel RodriguezRating 4.9
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. Figueiredo · 2025-05
W · KO · R3
Carlston HarrisRating 6.3
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Ribas 2 · 2025-01
L · Dec · R3
Muslim SalikhovRating 6.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Namajunas vs. Cortez · 2024-07
L · KO · R3
Kevin HollandRating 4.6
KO/TKO
UFC 287: Pereira vs. Adesanya 2 · 2023-04
W · KO · R3
Alex MoronoRating 5.5
KO/TKO
UFC 282: Blachowicz vs. Ankalaev · 2022-12

Harris · Last 5

L · KO · R3
Santiago PonzinibbioRating 4.5
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Ribas 2 · 2025-01
L · KO · R1
Khaos WilliamsRating 2.9
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Barboza vs. Murphy · 2024-05
W · Sub · R3
Jeremiah WellsRating 6.9
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. Font · 2023-08
W · Dec · R3
Jared GoodenRating 5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Yan vs. Dvalishvili · 2023-03
L · KO · R1
Shavkat RakhmonovRating 3.6
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Hermansson vs. Strickland · 2022-02

News & Media

Santiago Ponzinibbio · Carlston Harris
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