UFC 305: Du Plessis vs. Adesanya
Perth, Australia
17 Aug 2024
Lightweight
VS
94%
Nolan
6%
Reyes
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Tom
Tom Nolan
"Big Train"
10 – 1
6'3"73" reachSouthpaw26 yrs4-fight win streakWell-Rounded
CFR 65
Alex
Alex Reyes
"The Executioner"
13 – 5
Well-Rounded3-fight slide39 yrsOrthodox73" reach5'11"
CFR 4

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Nolan

Nolan is a strong favourite at 94% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 61 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Nolan has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 41 points.

Nolan has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Risk flags

Reyes has a chin rating of 54 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Nolan
Reyes
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'3"+
Height
5'11"
73"
Reach
73"
26+
Age
39
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
Nolan
Reyes
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
65.0
3.9
56.6
Performance Avg
0.0
41
Quality of Victory
0
100
Momentum Score
0
Nolan
Reyes
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
2.2
1.9
48%
Strike Accuracy
42%
4.1
Striking Style Score (/10)
0.0
1 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
12
Head
9
12
Body
7
5
Leg
3
RangeRange
20Distance14
9Clinch5
0Ground0
Nolan
Reyes
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
3.2
/ 10
0.0
/ 10
2.2
Wrestling Style (/10)
0.0
2.5
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
1
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Nolan
Reyes
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
78
54
Moderate
Verdict
2 consec. KOs
1
KO/TKO Losses
2
0
Sub Losses
0
Avg R1.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
5 fights ago
Last KO loss
1 fight ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
6/11 fights
Chin rating based on
3/18 fights
Nolan
Reyes
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
100
0
4-fight 🔥 win streak
Current form
3-fight 📉 slide
Upcoming
W · Sub · R1
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · KO · R1
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
L · KO · R1
Nolan
Reyes
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
50%
0%
1
KO / TKO Wins
0
1
Submission Wins
0
2
Decision Wins
0

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Nolan
Reyes
Striking4.1 / 0.0Volume5.6 / 0.0Grappling3.2 / 0.0Wrestling2.2 / 0.0Submission2.5 / 0.0Pressure5.9 / 0.0
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
4.1
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.0
3.2
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.0
2.2
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.0
2.5
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
5.9
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
0.0
5.6
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
0.0
Nolan
Strike Zones
Reyes
Nolan
Attacking
12HEAD12BODY5LEGS29 landed
Absorbing
9HEAD7BODY3LEGS19 absorbed
Reyes
Attacking
9HEAD7BODY3LEGS19 landed
Absorbing
12HEAD12BODY5LEGS29 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Nolan targets the head (41% of attacks) — Reyes absorbs 41% of strikes there
🎯Reyes targets the head (47% of attacks) — Nolan absorbs 47% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Nolan
RND
Reyes
0/0R00/0

Nolan · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.5
0102.1L5.0W4.5W5.0W6.1W2024-012024-052024-082025-022025-09
WinLossTrend

Reyes · QOF Timeline

Avg: 3.7
0101.5L2.6L7.0L2017-092023-092024-08
WinLossTrend

Nolan · Last 5

Upcoming
Fares Ziam
UFC Fight Night: Muhammad vs. Bonfim · 2026-06
W · Sub · R1
Charlie CampbellRating 6.1
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Ulberg vs. Reyes · 2025-09
W · Dec · R3
Viacheslav BorshchevRating 5
Decision
UFC 312: Du Plessis vs. Strickland 2 · 2025-02
W · Dec · R3
Alex ReyesRating 4.5
Decision
UFC 305: Du Plessis vs. Adesanya · 2024-08
W · KO · R1
Victor MartinezRating 5
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Barboza vs. Murphy · 2024-05

Reyes · Last 3

L · Dec · R3
Tom NolanRating 7
Decision
UFC 305: Du Plessis vs. Adesanya · 2024-08
L · KO · R1
Charlie CampbellRating 2.6
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Grasso vs. Shevchenko 2 · 2023-09
L · KO · R1
Mike PerryRating 1.5
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Rockhold vs. Branch · 2017-09

News & Media

Tom Nolan · Alex Reyes
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