METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
UFC 305: Du Plessis vs. Adesanya
Perth, Australia
17 Aug 2024
Lightweight
VS
94%
Nolan
6%
Reyes
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
★ Official Result
Tom NolanwinsDecisionR3 · 5:00
def. Alex Reyes · UFC 305: Du Plessis vs. Adesanya
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Nolan
→
Actual result
Nolan wins
Decision · R3
Pre-fight analysis
Nolan is a strong favourite at 94% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 60 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Nolan has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 38 points.
Risk flags
Reyes has a chin rating of 54 — a potential KO vulnerability.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
NolanReyes
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Nolan
Reyes
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'3"+
Height
5'11"
73"
Reach
73"
26+
Age
39
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
Nolan
Reyes
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
63.6
3.9
56.0
Performance Avg
0.0
38
Quality of Victory
0
100
Momentum Score
0
Nolan
Reyes
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
3.7
/ 10
0.0
/ 10
5.3
Style: Pressure
0.0
6.5
Style: Volume
0.0
1 KO wins
Finish Rate (strikes)
0 KO wins
Per-minute strike stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Strike targetStrike target
12
Head
9
12
Body
7
5
Leg
3
RangeRange
20Distance14
9Clinch5
0Ground0
Nolan
Reyes
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
3.0
/ 10
0.0
/ 10
2.1
Wrestling Style (/10)
0.0
2.0
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
1
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Nolan
Reyes
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
78
54
Moderate
Verdict
2 consec. KOs
1
KO/TKO Losses
2
0
Sub Losses
0
Avg R1.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
5 fights ago
Last KO loss
1 fight ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
6/11 fights
Chin rating based on
3/18 fights
Nolan
Reyes
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
100
0
5-fight 🔥 win streak
Current form
3-fight 📉 slide
W · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R1
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · KO · R1
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
L · KO · R1
Nolan
Reyes
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
40%
0%
1
KO / TKO Wins
0
1
Submission Wins
0
3
Decision Wins
0
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Nolan
Reyes
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
3.7
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.0
3.0
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.0
2.1
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.0
2.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
5.3
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
0.0
6.5
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
0.0
NolanReyes
Strike Zones
Nolan
Attacking
29 landedAbsorbing
19 absorbedReyes
Attacking
19 landedAbsorbing
29 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Nolan targets the head (41% of attacks) — Reyes absorbs 41% of strikes there
🎯Reyes targets the head (47% of attacks) — Nolan absorbs 47% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Nolan
RND
Reyes
0/0R00/0
Nolan · Last 5
W · Dec · R3
Fares ZiamDecision
UFC Fight Night: Muhammad vs. Bonfim · 2026-06
W · Sub · R1
Charlie CampbellSubmission
UFC Fight Night: Ulberg vs. Reyes · 2025-09
W · Dec · R3
Viacheslav BorshchevDecision
UFC 312: Du Plessis vs. Strickland 2 · 2025-02
W · Dec · R3
Alex ReyesDecision
UFC 305: Du Plessis vs. Adesanya · 2024-08
W · KO · R1
Victor MartinezKO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Barboza vs. Murphy · 2024-05
Reyes · Last 3
L · Dec · R3
Tom NolanDecision
UFC 305: Du Plessis vs. Adesanya · 2024-08
L · KO · R1
Charlie CampbellKO/TKO
Noche UFC: Grasso vs. Shevchenko 2 · 2023-09
L · KO · R1
Mike PerryKO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Rockhold vs. Branch · 2017-09