UFC 251: Usman vs. Masvidal
Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates
11 Jul 2020
Welterweight
VS
45%
Santos
55%
Salikhov
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
CFR 45
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Salikhov
This is a genuine toss-up — Santos at 45% vs Salikhov at 55% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 9 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Striking split: Santos throws more volume but Salikhov connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
Risk flags
Santos's chin rating of 28 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Salikhov has a chin rating of 20 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Santos
Salikhov
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'11"
Height
5'11"
73"+
Reach
70"
39+
Age
41
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Santos
Salikhov
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
45.3
54.5
49.3
Performance Avg
51.4
39
Quality of Victory
43
45
Momentum Score
83
Santos
Salikhov
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.7
1.3
44%
Strike Accuracy
49%
4.9
Striking Style Score (/10)
6.8
4 KOs
KO Finishes
5 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
9
Head
9
2
Body
3
6
Leg
1
RangeRange
17Distance13
0Clinch0
0Ground0
Santos
Salikhov
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
—
2.0
Grappling Style Score (/10)
1.1
1.4
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
0.8
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Santos
Salikhov
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
28
20
2 consec. KOs
Verdict
KO risk
3
KO/TKO Losses
3
0
Sub Losses
1
Avg R2.3 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.3 stoppage
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
1 fight ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
18/35 fights
Chin rating based on
15/28 fights
Santos
Salikhov
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
45
83
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
L · KO · R2
L · KO · R2
W · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
Upcoming
Last 5
Upcoming
L · KO · R1
W · KO · R1
W · KO · R1
W · Dec · R3
Santos
Salikhov
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
46%
56%
4
KO / TKO Wins
5
1
Submission Wins
0
6
Decision Wins
4
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Santos
Salikhov
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
4.9
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
6.8
2.0
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
1.1
1.4
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.8
0.9
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
5.1
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
5.8
5.7
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
4.8
SantosSalikhov
Strike Zones
Santos
Attacking
17 landedAbsorbing
13 absorbedSalikhov
Attacking
13 landedAbsorbing
17 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Santos targets the head (53% of attacks) — Salikhov absorbs 53% of strikes there
🎯Salikhov targets the head (69% of attacks) — Santos absorbs 69% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Santos
RND
Salikhov
0/0R00/0
Santos · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.1WinLossTrend
Salikhov · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.5WinLossTrend
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L · KO · R2
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Salikhov · Last 5
Upcoming
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