UFC Fight Night: Royval vs. Kape
Las Vegas, USA
13 Dec 2025
Women's Bantamweight
VS
46%
Croden
54%
Santos
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Melissa
Melissa Croden
"Scare"
8 – 3
5'9"68" reachOrthodox35 yrsWell-Rounded
CFR 58
Luana
Luana Santos
10 – 2
Well-Rounded2-fight win streak26 yrsOrthodox67" reach5'6"
CFR 69

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Santos

This is a genuine toss-up — Croden at 46% vs Santos at 54% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 11 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Striking split: Croden throws more volume but Santos connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.

Croden
Santos
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'9"+
Height
5'6"
68"+
Reach
67"
35
Age
+26
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Croden
Santos
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
57.9
68.7
49.2
Performance Avg
59.0
38
Quality of Victory
43
79
Momentum Score
100
Croden
Santos
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.7
1.2
51%
Strike Accuracy
54%
6.3
Striking Style Score (/10)
3.7
1 KOs
KO Finishes
1 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
2
Head
0
1
Body
0
2
Leg
0
RangeRange
5Distance0
0Clinch0
0Ground0
Croden
Santos
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
1.2
/ 10
4.2
/ 10
0.8
Wrestling Style (/10)
2.9
0.0
Submission Style (/10)
4.0
0
Submission wins
2
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Croden
Santos
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
98
98
Never stopped
Verdict
Never stopped
0
KO/TKO Losses
0
0
Sub Losses
0
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
3/11 fights
Chin rating based on
7/12 fights
Croden
Santos
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
79
100
Current form
2-fight 🔥 win streak
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · KO · R3
Last 5
Upcoming
W · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R2
L · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R1
Croden
Santos
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
50%
60%
1
KO / TKO Wins
1
0
Submission Wins
2
1
Decision Wins
2

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Croden
Santos
Striking6.3 / 3.7Volume5.3 / 4.9Grappling1.2 / 4.2Wrestling0.8 / 2.9Submission0.0 / 4.0Pressure5.5 / 6.7
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
6.3
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
3.7
1.2
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
4.2
0.8
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
2.9
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
4.0
5.5
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
6.7
5.3
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
4.9
Croden
Strike Zones
Santos
Croden
Attacking
2HEAD1BODY2LEGS5 landed
Absorbing
0HEAD0BODY0LEGS0 absorbed
Santos
Attacking
0HEAD0BODY0LEGS0 landed
Absorbing
2HEAD1BODY2LEGS5 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Croden targets the head (40% of attacks) — Santos absorbs 40% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Croden
RND
Santos
0/0R00/0

Croden · QOF Timeline

Avg: 6.0
0105.9W7.2L4.8W2025-102025-122026-04
WinLossTrend

Santos · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.7
0105.2W5.5W5.3W6.7L5.7W5.6W2023-082023-122024-072024-082025-052025-12
WinLossTrend

Croden · Last 3

W · Dec · R3
Daria ZhelezniakovaRating 4.8
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Burns vs. Malott · 2026-04
L · Dec · R3
Luana SantosRating 7.2
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Royval vs. Kape · 2025-12
W · KO · R3
Tainara LisboaRating 5.9
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: De Ridder vs. Allen · 2025-10

Santos · Last 5

Upcoming
Karol Rosa
UFC Fight Night: Kape vs. Horiguchi · 2026-06
W · Dec · R3
Melissa CrodenRating 5.6
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Royval vs. Kape · 2025-12
W · Sub · R2
Tainara LisboaRating 5.7
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Burns vs. Morales · 2025-05
L · Dec · R3
Casey O'NeillRating 6.7
Decision
UFC 305: Du Plessis vs. Adesanya · 2024-08
W · Sub · R1
Mariya AgapovaRating 5.3
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Namajunas vs. Cortez · 2024-07

News & Media

Melissa Croden · Luana Santos
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