UFC 182: Jones vs Cormier
Las Vegas, USA
3 Jan 2015
Lightweight
VS
44%
Castillo
56%
Felder
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 2 · 2:09
DC
Danny Castillo
"Last Call"
17 – 10
5'9"71" reachOrthodox46 yrs4-fight slideWell-Rounded
CFR 17
PF
Paul Felder
"The Irish Dragon"
17 – 6
Well-Rounded2-fight slide42 yrsOrthodox70" reach5'11"
CFR 22

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Felder

This is a genuine toss-up — Castillo at 44% vs Felder at 56% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

Felder has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Risk flags

Castillo's chin rating of 46 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Castillo
Felder
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'9"
Height
+5'11"
71"+
Reach
70"
46
Age
+42
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Castillo
Felder
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
17.2
21.7
40.6
Performance Avg
49.0
34
Quality of Victory
42
89
Momentum Score
100
Castillo
Felder
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
0.9
1.3
44%
Strike Accuracy
45%
3.9
Striking Style Score (/10)
5.6
2 KOs
KO Finishes
4 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
4
Head
6
2
Body
3
0
Leg
4
RangeRange
6Distance11
0Clinch1
0Ground1
Castillo
Felder
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
—
1.7
Grappling Style Score (/10)
2.0
1.2
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
1.4
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Castillo
Felder
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
46
88
KO risk
Verdict
Never stopped
2
KO/TKO Losses
0
0
Sub Losses
0
Avg R2.0 stoppage
KO round context
—
2 fights ago
Last KO loss
—
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
14/27 fights
Chin rating based on
15/23 fights
Castillo
Felder
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
89
100
4-fight 📉 slide
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R2
L · Dec · R3
W · KO · R2
Last 5
L · Dec · R5
L · Dec · R5
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
Castillo
Felder
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
29%
56%
2
KO / TKO Wins
4
0
Submission Wins
1
5
Decision Wins
4

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Castillo
Felder
Striking3.9 / 5.6Volume6.7 / 4.8Grappling1.7 / 2.0Wrestling1.2 / 1.4Submission0.0 / 1.1Pressure3.5 / 5.7
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
3.9
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
5.6
1.7
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.0
1.2
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.4
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
1.1
3.5
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
5.7
6.7
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
4.8
Castillo
Strike Zones
Felder
Castillo
Attacking
4HEAD2BODY0LEGS6 landed
Absorbing
6HEAD3BODY4LEGS13 absorbed
Felder
Attacking
6HEAD3BODY4LEGS13 landed
Absorbing
4HEAD2BODY0LEGS6 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Castillo targets the head (67% of attacks) — Felder absorbs 67% of strikes there
🎯Felder targets the head (46% of attacks) — Castillo absorbs 46% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Castillo
RND
Felder
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0

Castillo · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.8
0104.5W5.5L5.0W4.5W4.5W2.8L4.5W4.6W6.0L5.2W6.0L2.8L5.9L5.5L2011-032012-052013-122015-072015-12
WinLossTrend

Felder · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.4
0104.5W5.2W6.0L5.5L5.5W4.5W5.5L5.0W5.0W6.7W5.5L4.5W5.0W6.4L5.7L2014-102016-012017-072019-092020-11
WinLossTrend

Castillo · Last 5

L · Dec · R3
Nik LentzRating 5.5
Decision
UFC on FOX: Dos Anjos vs. Cowboy 2 · 2015-12
L · Dec · R3
Jim MillerRating 5.9
Decision
UFC on FOX: Dillashaw vs. Barao II · 2015-07
L · KO · R2
Paul FelderRating 2.8
KO/TKO
UFC 182: Jones vs Cormier · 2015-01
L · Dec · R3
Tony FergusonRating 6
Decision
UFC 177: Dillashaw vs Soto · 2014-08
W · KO · R2
Charlie BrennemanRating 5.2
KO/TKO
UFC 172: Jones vs Teixeira · 2014-04

Felder · Last 5

L · Dec · R5
Rafael Dos AnjosRating 5.7
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Felder vs. Dos Anjos · 2020-11
L · Dec · R5
Dan HookerRating 6.4
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Felder vs. Hooker · 2020-02
W · Dec · R3
Edson BarbozaRating 5
Decision
UFC 242: Khabib vs. Poirier · 2019-09
W · Dec · R3
James VickRating 4.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Ngannou vs. Velasquez · 2019-02
L · Dec · R3
Mike PerryRating 5.5
Decision
UFC 226: Miocic vs. Cormier · 2018-07

News & Media

Danny Castillo · Paul Felder
← Back to fights