UFC Fight Night: Swanson vs. Lobov
Nashville, USA
22 Apr 2017
Lightweight
VS
94%
Holtzman
6%
McBride
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Holtzman
Holtzman is a strong favourite at 94% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 29 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Holtzman has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 32 points.
Holtzman has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Holtzman's chin rating of 48 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Holtzman
McBride
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'9"
Height
+6'1"
69"
Reach
42
Age
+40
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Holtzman
McBride
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
31.5
2.1
40.6
Performance Avg
0.0
32
Quality of Victory
0
53
Momentum Score
0
Holtzman
McBride
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.8
1.8
51%
Strike Accuracy
46%
2.5
Striking Style Score (/10)
0.0
1 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
31
Head
22
2
Body
4
14
Leg
3
RangeRange
29Distance25
0Clinch0
18Ground4
Holtzman
McBride
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.2
Sub Attempts / fight
—
2.5
Grappling Style Score (/10)
0.0
1.8
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
0.0
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Holtzman
McBride
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
48
76
2 consec. KOs
Verdict
Moderate
2
KO/TKO Losses
1
0
Sub Losses
0
Avg R1.5 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R2.0 stoppage
1 fight ago
Last KO loss
1 fight ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
13/20 fights
Chin rating based on
2/11 fights
Holtzman
McBride
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
53
0
3-fight 📉 slide
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R2
L · KO · R1
W · Dec · R3
W · R2
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R2
Holtzman
McBride
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
29%
0%
1
KO / TKO Wins
0
1
Submission Wins
0
5
Decision Wins
0
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Holtzman
McBride
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
2.5
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.0
2.5
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.0
1.8
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.0
1.4
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
3.6
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
0.0
5.7
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
0.0
HoltzmanMcBride
Strike Zones
Holtzman
Attacking
47 landedAbsorbing
29 absorbedMcBride
Attacking
29 landedAbsorbing
47 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Holtzman targets the head (66% of attacks) — McBride absorbs 66% of strikes there
🎯McBride targets the head (76% of attacks) — Holtzman absorbs 76% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Holtzman
RND
McBride
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0
Holtzman · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.9WinLossTrend
McBride · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.2WinLossTrend
Holtzman · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Clay GuidaRating 6Decision
UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. Holland · 2022-12
L · KO · R2
Mateusz GamrotRating 3.8KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Vettori vs. Holland · 2021-04
L · KO · R1
Beneil DariushRating 2.5KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Oleinik · 2020-08
W · Dec · R3
Jim MillerRating 4.9Decision
UFC Fight Night: Anderson vs. Blachowicz · 2020-02
W · R2
Dong Hyun MaRating 4.2UFC Fight Night: Covington vs. Lawler · 2019-08
McBride · Last 2
L · Dec · R3
Scott HoltzmanRating 5.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Swanson vs. Lobov · 2017-04
L · KO · R2
Nik LentzRating 2.8KO/TKO
UFC 203: Miocic vs. Overeem · 2016-09