The Ultimate Fighter: The Comeback Finale
Las Vegas, USA
11 Nov 2006
Middleweight
VS
91%
McCarthy
9%
Ray
Win Probability
Submission
Round 1 · 4:43
CM
Charles McCarthy
"Chainsaw"
10 – 5
5'10"71" reachOrthodox45 yrsSubmission Hunter
CFR 18
GR
Gideon Ray
17 – 15
Well-Rounded3-fight slide52 yrsSouthpaw5'10"
CFR 2

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: McCarthy

McCarthy is a strong favourite at 91% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 16 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

McCarthy has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 54 points.

Ray has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Risk flags

McCarthy's chin rating of 56 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Ray has a chin rating of 64 — a potential KO vulnerability.

McCarthy
Ray
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'10"
Height
5'10"
71"
Reach
45+
Age
52
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
McCarthy
Ray
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
17.7
1.8
45.7
Performance Avg
0.0
54
Quality of Victory
0
43
Momentum Score
0
McCarthy
Ray
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
0.2
2.8
12%
Strike Accuracy
40%
0.7
Striking Style Score (/10)
0.0
0 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
1
Head
4
1
Body
1
0
Leg
4
RangeRange
1Distance9
1Clinch0
0Ground0
McCarthy
Ray
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
8.0
/ 10
0.0
/ 10
5.6
Wrestling Style (/10)
0.0
10.0
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
1
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
McCarthy
Ray
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
56
64
KO risk
Verdict
Moderate
2
KO/TKO Losses
1
0
Sub Losses
1
Avg R1.5 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
1 fight ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
3/15 fights
Chin rating based on
3/32 fights
McCarthy
Ray
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
43
0
Current form
3-fight 📉 slide
L · KO · R1
W · Sub · R1
L · KO · R2
Last 5
L · Sub · R1
L · KO · R1
L · R1
McCarthy
Ray
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
100%
0%
0
KO / TKO Wins
0
1
Submission Wins
0
0
Decision Wins
0

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

McCarthy
Ray
Striking0.7 / 0.0Volume0.7 / 0.0Grappling8.0 / 0.0Wrestling5.6 / 0.0Submission10.0 / 0.0Pressure8.0 / 0.0
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
0.7
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.0
8.0
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.0
5.6
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.0
10.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
8.0
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
0.0
0.7
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
0.0
McCarthy
Strike Zones
Ray
McCarthy
Attacking
1HEAD1BODY0LEGS2 landed
Absorbing
4HEAD1BODY4LEGS9 absorbed
Ray
Attacking
4HEAD1BODY4LEGS9 landed
Absorbing
1HEAD1BODY0LEGS2 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯McCarthy targets the head (50% of attacks) — Ray absorbs 50% of strikes there
🎯Ray targets the head (44% of attacks) — McCarthy absorbs 44% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

McCarthy
RND
Ray
0/0R00/0

McCarthy · QOF Timeline

Avg: 3.1
0102.8L5.0W1.5L2005-062006-112008-04
WinLossTrend

Ray · QOF Timeline

Avg: 2.3
0104.0L1.5L1.5L2005-022005-082006-11
WinLossTrend

McCarthy · Last 3

L · KO · R1
Michael BispingRating 1.5
KO/TKO
UFC 83: Serra vs St-Pierre 2 · 2008-04
W · Sub · R1
Gideon RayRating 5
Submission
The Ultimate Fighter: The Comeback Finale · 2006-11
L · KO · R2
David LoiseauRating 2.8
KO/TKO
UFC 53: Heavy Hitters · 2005-06

Ray · Last 3

L · Sub · R1
Charles McCarthyRating 1.5
Submission
The Ultimate Fighter: The Comeback Finale · 2006-11
L · KO · R1
Mike SwickRating 1.5
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night 1 · 2005-08
L · R1
David LoiseauRating 4
UFC 51: Super Saturday · 2005-02

News & Media

Charles McCarthy · Gideon Ray
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