METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
The Ultimate Fighter: The Comeback Finale
Las Vegas, USA
11 Nov 2006
Middleweight
VS
91%
McCarthy
9%
Ray
Win Probability
Submission
Round 1 · 4:43
★ Official Result
Charles McCarthywinsSubmissionR1 · 4:43
def. Gideon Ray · The Ultimate Fighter: The Comeback Finale
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
McCarthy
→
Actual result
McCarthy wins
Submission · R1
Pre-fight analysis
McCarthy is a strong favourite at 91% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 16 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
McCarthy has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 54 points.
Risk flags
McCarthy's chin rating of 56 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Ray has a chin rating of 64 — a potential KO vulnerability.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
McCarthyRay
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
McCarthy
Ray
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'10"
Height
5'10"
71"
Reach
46+
Age
53
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
McCarthy
Ray
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
17.7
1.8
45.7
Performance Avg
0.0
54
Quality of Victory
0
43
Momentum Score
0
McCarthy
Ray
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
0.7
/ 10
0.0
/ 10
8.0
Style: Pressure
0.0
0.7
Style: Volume
0.0
0 KO wins
Finish Rate (strikes)
0 KO wins
Per-minute strike stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Strike targetStrike target
1
Head
4
1
Body
1
0
Leg
4
RangeRange
1Distance9
1Clinch0
0Ground0
McCarthy
Ray
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
8.0
/ 10
0.0
/ 10
5.6
Wrestling Style (/10)
0.0
10.0
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
1
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
McCarthy
Ray
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
56
64
KO risk
Verdict
Moderate
2
KO/TKO Losses
1
0
Sub Losses
1
Avg R1.5 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
1 fight ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
3/15 fights
Chin rating based on
3/32 fights
McCarthy
Ray
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
43
0
Current form
3-fight 📉 slide
L · KO · R1
W · Sub · R1
L · KO · R2
Last 5
L · Sub · R1
L · KO · R1
L · R1
McCarthy
Ray
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
100%
0%
0
KO / TKO Wins
0
1
Submission Wins
0
0
Decision Wins
0
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
McCarthy
Ray
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
0.7
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.0
8.0
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.0
5.6
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.0
10.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
8.0
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
0.0
0.7
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
0.0
McCarthyRay
Strike Zones
McCarthy
Attacking
2 landedAbsorbing
9 absorbedRay
Attacking
9 landedAbsorbing
2 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯McCarthy targets the head (50% of attacks) — Ray absorbs 50% of strikes there
🎯Ray targets the head (44% of attacks) — McCarthy absorbs 44% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
McCarthy
RND
Ray
0/0R00/0
McCarthy · Last 3
L · KO · R1
Michael BispingKO/TKO
UFC 83: Serra vs St-Pierre 2 · 2008-04
W · Sub · R1
Gideon RaySubmission
The Ultimate Fighter: The Comeback Finale · 2006-11
L · KO · R2
David LoiseauKO/TKO
UFC 53: Heavy Hitters · 2005-06
Ray · Last 3
L · Sub · R1
Charles McCarthySubmission
The Ultimate Fighter: The Comeback Finale · 2006-11
L · KO · R1
Mike SwickKO/TKO
UFC Fight Night 1 · 2005-08
L · R1
David LoiseauUFC 51: Super Saturday · 2005-02