METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
UFC 302: Makhachev vs. Poirier
Newark, USA
1 Jun 2024
Lightweight
VS
59%
Dawson
41%
Solecki
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
★ Official Result
Grant DawsonwinsDecisionR3 · 5:00
def. Joe Solecki · UFC 302: Makhachev vs. Poirier
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Dawson
→
Actual result
Dawson wins
Decision · R3
Pre-fight analysis
This is a genuine toss-up — Dawson at 59% vs Solecki at 41% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 20 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Risk flags
Dawson's chin rating of 56 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
DawsonSolecki
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Dawson
Solecki
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'10"+
Height
5'9"
72"+
Reach
70"
32+
Age
33
Switch
Stance
Orthodox
Dawson
Solecki
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
64.1
44.2
57.5
Performance Avg
43.6
39
Quality of Victory
36
100
Momentum Score
65
Dawson
Solecki
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
3.4
/ 10
1.1
/ 10
6.7
Style: Pressure
4.5
5.0
Style: Volume
5.9
2 KO wins
Finish Rate (strikes)
0 KO wins
Per-minute strike stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Strike targetStrike target
18
Head
5
4
Body
1
0
Leg
0
RangeRange
4Distance3
1Clinch1
17Ground2
Dawson
Solecki
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
4.3
/ 10
4.6
/ 10
3.0
Wrestling Style (/10)
3.3
4.2
Submission Style (/10)
4.0
5
Submission wins
2
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Dawson
Solecki
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
56
72
KO risk
Verdict
Moderate
2
KO/TKO Losses
1
0
Sub Losses
0
Avg R1.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
2 fights ago
Last KO loss
2 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
16/27 fights
Chin rating based on
9/19 fights
Dawson
Solecki
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
100
65
Current form
3-fight 📉 slide
Upcoming
W · Sub · R3
L · KO · R1
W · Dec · R3
W · KO · R2
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
W · Sub · R2
W · Dec · R3
Dawson
Solecki
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
58%
40%
2
KO / TKO Wins
0
5
Submission Wins
2
5
Decision Wins
3
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Dawson
Solecki
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
3.4
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
1.1
4.3
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
4.6
3.0
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
3.3
4.2
Submission
Submission attack frequency
4.0
6.7
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
4.5
5.0
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
5.9
DawsonSolecki
Strike Zones
Dawson
Attacking
22 landedAbsorbing
6 absorbedSolecki
Attacking
6 landedAbsorbing
22 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Dawson targets the head (82% of attacks) — Solecki absorbs 82% of strikes there
🎯Solecki targets the head (83% of attacks) — Dawson absorbs 83% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Dawson
RND
Solecki
0/0R00/0
Dawson · Last 5
Upcoming
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