UFC 302: Makhachev vs. Poirier
Newark, USA
1 Jun 2024
Lightweight
VS
57%
Dawson
43%
Solecki
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Grant
Grant Dawson
"KGD"
24 – 3
5'10"72" reachSwitch32 yrsWell-Rounded
CFR 64
Joe
Joe Solecki
13 – 6
Well-Rounded3-fight slide32 yrsOrthodox70" reach5'9"
CFR 49

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Dawson

This is a genuine toss-up — Dawson at 57% vs Solecki at 43% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 15 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Dawson has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Risk flags

Dawson's chin rating of 56 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Dawson
Solecki
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'10"+
Height
5'9"
72"+
Reach
70"
32
Age
32
Switch
Stance
Orthodox
Dawson
Solecki
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
64.1
49.1
57.5
Performance Avg
43.6
39
Quality of Victory
36
100
Momentum Score
65
Dawson
Solecki
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.2
1.0
53%
Strike Accuracy
45%
3.4
Striking Style Score (/10)
1.1
2 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
18
Head
5
4
Body
1
0
Leg
0
RangeRange
4Distance3
1Clinch1
17Ground2
Dawson
Solecki
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
4.3
/ 10
4.6
/ 10
3.0
Wrestling Style (/10)
3.3
4.2
Submission Style (/10)
4.0
5
Submission wins
2
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Dawson
Solecki
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
56
72
KO risk
Verdict
Moderate
2
KO/TKO Losses
1
0
Sub Losses
0
Avg R1.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
1 fight ago
Last KO loss
2 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
15/27 fights
Chin rating based on
9/19 fights
Dawson
Solecki
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
100
65
Current form
3-fight 📉 slide
W · Sub · R3
L · KO · R1
W · Dec · R3
W · KO · R2
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
W · Sub · R2
W · Dec · R3
Dawson
Solecki
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
58%
40%
2
KO / TKO Wins
0
5
Submission Wins
2
5
Decision Wins
3

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Dawson
Solecki
Striking3.4 / 1.1Volume5.0 / 5.9Grappling4.3 / 4.6Wrestling3.0 / 3.3Submission4.2 / 4.0Pressure6.7 / 4.5
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
3.4
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
1.1
4.3
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
4.6
3.0
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
3.3
4.2
Submission
Submission attack frequency
4.0
6.7
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
4.5
5.0
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
5.9
Dawson
Strike Zones
Solecki
Dawson
Attacking
18HEAD4BODY0LEGS22 landed
Absorbing
5HEAD1BODY0LEGS6 absorbed
Solecki
Attacking
5HEAD1BODY0LEGS6 landed
Absorbing
18HEAD4BODY0LEGS22 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Dawson targets the head (82% of attacks) — Solecki absorbs 82% of strikes there
🎯Solecki targets the head (83% of attacks) — Dawson absorbs 83% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Dawson
RND
Solecki
0/0R00/0

Dawson · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.0
0104.7W5.2W5.2W4.5W5.6W5.9W5.7W4.5W2.2L5.2W6.0W5.5W3.6L6.1W2019-032021-032023-102025-122026-05
WinLossTrend

Solecki · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.1
0104.5W5.0W4.9W5.9L4.5W5.2W2.5L7.0L6.8L2019-122021-102023-122025-01
WinLossTrend

Dawson · Last 5

W · Sub · R3
Mateusz RebeckiRating 6.1
Submission
UFC 328: Chimaev vs. Strickland · 2026-05
L · KO · R1
Manuel TorresRating 3.6
KO/TKO
UFC 323: Dvalishvili vs. Yan 2 · 2025-12
W · Dec · R3
Diego FerreiraRating 5.5
Decision
UFC 311: Makhachev vs. Moicano · 2025-01
W · KO · R2
Rafa GarciaRating 6
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Royval vs. Taira · 2024-10
W · Dec · R3
Joe SoleckiRating 5.2
Decision
UFC 302: Makhachev vs. Poirier · 2024-06

Solecki · Last 5

L · Dec · R3
Nurullo AlievRating 6.8
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Ribas 2 · 2025-01
L · Dec · R3
Grant DawsonRating 7
Decision
UFC 302: Makhachev vs. Poirier · 2024-06
L · KO · R1
Drakkar KloseRating 2.5
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Dariush vs. Tsarukyan · 2023-12
W · Sub · R2
Carl DeatonRating 5.2
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Muniz vs. Allen · 2023-02
W · Dec · R3
Alex Da SilvaRating 4.5
Decision
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News & Media

Grant Dawson · Joe Solecki
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