★ Championship Bout · Bantamweight
UFC 238: Cejudo vs. Moraes
Chicago, USA
8 Jun 2019
Bantamweight
VS
75%
Cejudo
25%
Moraes
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 3 · 4:51
Henry
Henry Cejudo
"Triple C"
16 – 6
5'4"64" reachOrthodox39 yrs4-fight slideWell-Rounded
CFR 65
MM
Marlon Moraes
"Magic"
23 – 10
Well-Rounded4-fight slide38 yrsOrthodox67" reach5'6"
CFR 22

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Cejudo

Cejudo is a strong favourite at 75% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 43 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Cejudo has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Risk flags

Cejudo's chin rating of 68 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Moraes has a chin rating of 0 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Cejudo
Moraes
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'4"
Height
+5'6"
64"
Reach
+67"
39
Age
+38
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Cejudo
Moraes
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
64.7
21.5
57.5
Performance Avg
47.3
54
Quality of Victory
49
97
Momentum Score
20
Cejudo
Moraes
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.4
1.2
54%
Strike Accuracy
42%
5.3
Striking Style Score (/10)
4.9
4 KOs
KO Finishes
2 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
39
Head
7
8
Body
3
0
Leg
0
RangeRange
13Distance8
8Clinch1
26Ground1
Cejudo
Moraes
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
1.4
/ 10
2.6
/ 10
1.0
Wrestling Style (/10)
1.8
0.0
Submission Style (/10)
2.0
0
Submission wins
1
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Cejudo
Moraes
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
68
0
Moderate
Verdict
4 consec. KOs
1
KO/TKO Losses
5
0
Sub Losses
0
Avg R1.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.8 stoppage
11 fights ago
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
16/22 fights
Chin rating based on
11/33 fights
Cejudo
Moraes
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
97
20
4-fight 📉 slide
Current form
4-fight 📉 slide
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R5
W · KO · R2
Last 5
L · KO · R1
L · KO · R2
L · KO · R1
L · KO · R2
W · Dec · R3
Cejudo
Moraes
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
40%
60%
4
KO / TKO Wins
2
0
Submission Wins
1
6
Decision Wins
2

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Cejudo
Moraes
Striking5.3 / 4.9Volume6.0 / 4.1Grappling1.4 / 2.6Wrestling1.0 / 1.8Submission0.0 / 2.0Pressure4.7 / 5.6
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
5.3
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
4.9
1.4
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.6
1.0
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.8
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
2.0
4.7
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
5.6
6.0
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
4.1
Cejudo
Strike Zones
Moraes
Cejudo
Attacking
39HEAD8BODY0LEGS47 landed
Absorbing
7HEAD3BODY0LEGS10 absorbed
Moraes
Attacking
7HEAD3BODY0LEGS10 landed
Absorbing
39HEAD8BODY0LEGS47 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Cejudo targets the head (83% of attacks) — Moraes absorbs 83% of strikes there
🎯Moraes targets the head (70% of attacks) — Cejudo absorbs 70% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Cejudo
RND
Moraes
0/0R00/0

Cejudo · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.1
0104.5W4.5W4.5W4.5W1.5L5.5L5.2W4.5W4.5W5.1W5.2W5.1W6.5L6.8L6.1L7.0L2014-122016-042018-082023-052025-12
WinLossTrend

Moraes · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.4
0105.5L4.5W6.0W5.0W5.0W4.2L5.0W3.6L2.7L4.0L2.8L2017-062018-062019-122021-092022-03
WinLossTrend

Cejudo · Last 5

L · Dec · R3
Payton TalbottRating 7
Decision
UFC 323: Dvalishvili vs. Yan 2 · 2025-12
L · Dec · R3
Song YadongRating 6.1
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Cejudo vs. Song · 2025-02
L · Dec · R3
Merab DvalishviliRating 6.8
Decision
UFC 298: Volkanovski vs. Topuria · 2024-02
L · Dec · R5
Aljamain SterlingRating 6.5
Decision
UFC 288: Sterling vs. Cejudo · 2023-05
W · KO · R2
Dominick CruzRating 5.1
KO/TKO
UFC 249: Ferguson vs. Gaethje · 2020-05

Moraes · Last 5

L · KO · R1
Song YadongRating 2.8
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Santos vs. Ankalaev · 2022-03
L · KO · R2
Merab DvalishviliRating 4
KO/TKO
UFC 266: Volkanovski vs. Ortega · 2021-09
L · KO · R1
Rob FontRating 2.7
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. Neal · 2020-12
L · KO · R2
Cory SandhagenRating 3.6
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Moraes vs. Sandhagen · 2020-10
W · Dec · R3
Jose AldoRating 5
Decision
UFC 245: Usman vs. Covington · 2019-12

News & Media

Henry Cejudo · Marlon Moraes
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