METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
★ Championship Bout · Bantamweight
UFC 238: Cejudo vs. Moraes
Chicago, USA
8 Jun 2019
Bantamweight
VS
75%
Cejudo
25%
Moraes
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 3 · 4:51
★ Official Result
Henry CejudowinsKO/TKOR3 · 4:51
def. Marlon Moraes · UFC 238: Cejudo vs. Moraes
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Cejudo
→
Actual result
Cejudo wins
KO/TKO · R3
Pre-fight analysis
Cejudo is a strong favourite at 75% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 43 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Cejudo has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Cejudo's chin rating of 68 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Moraes has a chin rating of 0 — a potential KO vulnerability.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
CejudoMoraes
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Cejudo
Moraes
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'4"
Height
+5'6"
64"
Reach
+67"
39
Age
+38
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Cejudo
Moraes
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
64.7
21.5
57.5
Performance Avg
47.3
54
Quality of Victory
49
97
Momentum Score
20
Cejudo
Moraes
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
1.4
1.2
54%
Strike Accuracy
42%
5.3
Striking Style Score (/10)
4.9
4 KOs
KO Finishes
2 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
39
Head
7
8
Body
3
0
Leg
0
RangeRange
13Distance8
8Clinch1
26Ground1
Cejudo
Moraes
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
1.4
/ 10
2.6
/ 10
1.0
Wrestling Style (/10)
1.8
0.0
Submission Style (/10)
2.0
0
Submission wins
1
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Cejudo
Moraes
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
68
0
Moderate
Verdict
4 consec. KOs
1
KO/TKO Losses
5
0
Sub Losses
0
Avg R1.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.8 stoppage
11 fights ago
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
16/22 fights
Chin rating based on
11/33 fights
Cejudo
Moraes
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
97
20
4-fight 📉 slide
Current form
4-fight 📉 slide
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R5
W · KO · R2
Last 5
L · KO · R1
L · KO · R2
L · KO · R1
L · KO · R2
W · Dec · R3
Cejudo
Moraes
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
40%
60%
4
KO / TKO Wins
2
0
Submission Wins
1
6
Decision Wins
2
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Cejudo
Moraes
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
5.3
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
4.9
1.4
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.6
1.0
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.8
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
2.0
4.7
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
5.6
6.0
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
4.1
CejudoMoraes
Strike Zones
Cejudo
Attacking
47 landedAbsorbing
10 absorbedMoraes
Attacking
10 landedAbsorbing
47 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Cejudo targets the head (83% of attacks) — Moraes absorbs 83% of strikes there
🎯Moraes targets the head (70% of attacks) — Cejudo absorbs 70% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Cejudo
RND
Moraes
0/0R00/0
Cejudo · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.1WinLossTrend
Moraes · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.4WinLossTrend
Cejudo · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Payton TalbottRating 7Decision
UFC 323: Dvalishvili vs. Yan 2 · 2025-12
L · Dec · R3
Song YadongRating 6.1Decision
UFC Fight Night: Cejudo vs. Song · 2025-02
L · Dec · R3
Merab DvalishviliRating 6.8Decision
UFC 298: Volkanovski vs. Topuria · 2024-02
L · Dec · R5
Aljamain SterlingRating 6.5Decision
UFC 288: Sterling vs. Cejudo · 2023-05
W · KO · R2
Dominick CruzRating 5.1KO/TKO
UFC 249: Ferguson vs. Gaethje · 2020-05
Moraes · Last 5
L · KO · R1
Song YadongRating 2.8KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Santos vs. Ankalaev · 2022-03
L · KO · R2
Merab DvalishviliRating 4KO/TKO
UFC 266: Volkanovski vs. Ortega · 2021-09
L · KO · R1
Rob FontRating 2.7KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. Neal · 2020-12
L · KO · R2
Cory SandhagenRating 3.6KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Moraes vs. Sandhagen · 2020-10
W · Dec · R3
Jose AldoRating 5Decision
UFC 245: Usman vs. Covington · 2019-12