METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
UFC 300: Pereira vs. Hill
Las Vegas, USA
13 Apr 2024
Lightweight
VS
54%
Gaethje
46%
Holloway
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 5 · 4:59
★ Official Result
Max HollowaywinsKO/TKOR5 · 4:59
def. Justin Gaethje · UFC 300: Pereira vs. Hill
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Gaethje
→
Actual result
Holloway wins
KO/TKO · R5
Pre-fight analysis
This is a genuine toss-up — Gaethje at 54% vs Holloway at 46% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 11 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Gaethje has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 16 points.
Risk flags
Gaethje's chin rating of 10 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Holloway has a chin rating of 52 — a potential KO vulnerability.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
GaethjeHolloway
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Gaethje
Holloway
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'11"
Height
5'11"
70"+
Reach
69"
37
Age
+34
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Gaethje
Holloway
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
67.6
56.9
65.5
Performance Avg
57.7
63
Quality of Victory
48
100
Momentum Score
63
Gaethje
Holloway
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
7.7
/ 10
6.0
/ 10
6.5
Style: Pressure
6.0
4.3
Style: Volume
4.8
7 KO wins
Finish Rate (strikes)
11 KO wins
Per-minute strike stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Strike targetStrike target
11
Head
27
1
Body
22
6
Leg
13
RangeRange
18Distance62
0Clinch0
0Ground0
Gaethje
Holloway
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
0.9
/ 10
1.7
/ 10
0.6
Wrestling Style (/10)
1.2
0.0
Submission Style (/10)
0.8
0
Submission wins
2
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Gaethje
Holloway
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
10
52
2 consec. KOs
Verdict
KO risk
3
KO/TKO Losses
1
2
Sub Losses
1
Avg R4.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R3.0 stoppage
3 fights ago
Last KO loss
3 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
16/32 fights
Chin rating based on
33/36 fights
Gaethje
Holloway
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
100
63
3-fight 🔥 win streak
Current form
W · KO · R4
W · Dec · R5
W · Dec · R3
L · KO · R5
W · KO · R2
Last 5
W · KO · R1
L · Dec · R5
W · Dec · R5
L · KO · R3
W · KO · R5
Gaethje
Holloway
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
64%
54%
7
KO / TKO Wins
11
0
Submission Wins
2
4
Decision Wins
11
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Gaethje
Holloway
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
7.7
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
6.0
0.9
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
1.7
0.6
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.2
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.8
6.5
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
6.0
4.3
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
4.8
GaethjeHolloway
Strike Zones
Gaethje
Attacking
18 landedAbsorbing
62 absorbedHolloway
Attacking
62 landedAbsorbing
18 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Gaethje targets the head (61% of attacks) — Holloway absorbs 61% of strikes there
🎯Holloway targets the head (44% of attacks) — Gaethje absorbs 44% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Gaethje
RND
Holloway
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0
Gaethje · Last 5
W · KO · R4
Ilia TopuriaKO/TKO
UFC Freedom 250 · 2026-06
W · Dec · R5
Paddy PimblettDecision
UFC 324: Gaethje vs. Pimblett · 2026-01
W · Dec · R3
Rafael FizievDecision
UFC 313: Pereira vs. Ankalaev · 2025-03
L · KO · R5
Max HollowayKO/TKO
UFC 300: Pereira vs. Hill · 2024-04
W · KO · R2
Dustin PoirierKO/TKO
UFC 291: Poirier vs. Gaethje 2 · 2023-07
Holloway · Last 5
W · KO · R1
Conor McGregorKO/TKO
UFC 329: McGregor vs. Holloway 2 · 2026-07
L · Dec · R5
Charles OliveiraDecision
UFC 326: Holloway vs. Oliveira 2 · 2026-03
W · Dec · R5
Dustin PoirierDecision
UFC 318: Holloway vs. Poirier 3 · 2025-07
L · KO · R3
Ilia TopuriaKO/TKO
UFC 308: Topuria vs. Holloway · 2024-10
W · KO · R5
Justin GaethjeKO/TKO
UFC 300: Pereira vs. Hill · 2024-04