UFC 300: Pereira vs. Hill
Las Vegas, USA
13 Apr 2024
Lightweight
VS
54%
Gaethje
46%
Holloway
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 5 · 4:59
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Gaethje
This is a genuine toss-up — Gaethje at 54% vs Holloway at 46% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 10 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Gaethje has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 15 points.
Striking split: Holloway throws more volume but Gaethje connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
Risk flags
Gaethje's chin rating of 10 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Holloway has a chin rating of 52 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Gaethje
Holloway
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'11"
Height
5'11"
70"+
Reach
69"
37
Age
+34
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Gaethje
Holloway
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
66.1
56.2
63.6
Performance Avg
56.8
62
Quality of Victory
47
100
Momentum Score
63
Gaethje
Holloway
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
2.1
2.2
62%
Strike Accuracy
52%
7.3
Striking Style Score (/10)
5.8
6 KOs
KO Finishes
10 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
11
Head
27
1
Body
22
6
Leg
13
RangeRange
18Distance62
0Clinch0
0Ground0
Gaethje
Holloway
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
1.0
/ 10
1.7
/ 10
0.7
Wrestling Style (/10)
1.2
0.0
Submission Style (/10)
0.9
0
Submission wins
2
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Gaethje
Holloway
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
10
52
2 consec. KOs
Verdict
KO risk
3
KO/TKO Losses
1
2
Sub Losses
1
Avg R4.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R3.0 stoppage
3 fights ago
Last KO loss
3 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
16/32 fights
Chin rating based on
33/36 fights
Gaethje
Holloway
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
100
63
2-fight 🔥 win streak
Current form
Upcoming
W · Dec · R5
W · Dec · R3
L · KO · R5
W · KO · R2
Last 5
Upcoming
L · Dec · R5
W · Dec · R5
L · KO · R3
W · KO · R5
Gaethje
Holloway
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
60%
52%
6
KO / TKO Wins
10
0
Submission Wins
2
4
Decision Wins
11
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Gaethje
Holloway
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
7.3
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
5.8
1.0
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
1.7
0.7
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.2
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.9
6.2
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
5.8
4.5
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
4.9
GaethjeHolloway
Strike Zones
Gaethje
Attacking
18 landedAbsorbing
62 absorbedHolloway
Attacking
62 landedAbsorbing
18 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Gaethje targets the head (61% of attacks) — Holloway absorbs 61% of strikes there
🎯Holloway targets the head (44% of attacks) — Gaethje absorbs 44% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Gaethje
RND
Holloway
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0
Gaethje · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.0WinLossTrend
Holloway · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.6WinLossTrend
Gaethje · Last 5
Upcoming
Ilia TopuriaUFC Freedom 250 · 2026-06
W · Dec · R5
Paddy PimblettRating 6.2Decision
UFC 324: Gaethje vs. Pimblett · 2026-01
W · Dec · R3
Rafael FizievRating 5.5Decision
UFC 313: Pereira vs. Ankalaev · 2025-03
L · KO · R5
Max HollowayRating 5.1KO/TKO
UFC 300: Pereira vs. Hill · 2024-04
W · KO · R2
Dustin PoirierRating 6.4KO/TKO
UFC 291: Poirier vs. Gaethje 2 · 2023-07
Holloway · Last 5
Upcoming
Conor McGregorUFC 329: McGregor vs. Holloway 2 · 2026-07
L · Dec · R5
Charles OliveiraRating 6.9Decision
UFC 326: Holloway vs. Oliveira 2 · 2026-03
W · Dec · R5
Dustin PoirierRating 5.8Decision
UFC 318: Holloway vs. Poirier 3 · 2025-07
L · KO · R3
Ilia TopuriaRating 5.1KO/TKO
UFC 308: Topuria vs. Holloway · 2024-10
W · KO · R5
Justin GaethjeRating 7.1KO/TKO
UFC 300: Pereira vs. Hill · 2024-04