UFC on FX: Belfort vs. Rockhold
Jaragua do Sul, Brazil
18 May 2013
Featherweight
VS
44%
Dias
56%
Lentz
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Lentz
This is a genuine toss-up — Dias at 44% vs Lentz at 56% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
Lentz has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 10 points.
Striking split: Lentz throws more volume but Dias connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
Risk flags
Lentz has a chin rating of 52 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Dias
Lentz
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'8"
Height
5'8"
69"+
Reach
68"
41
Age
41
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Dias
Lentz
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
12.7
16.0
30.0
Performance Avg
45.3
25
Quality of Victory
35
50
Momentum Score
53
Dias
Lentz
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
0.7
1.1
45%
Strike Accuracy
44%
0.8
Striking Style Score (/10)
3.4
0 KOs
KO Finishes
3 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
24
Head
4
0
Body
2
0
Leg
0
RangeRange
14Distance4
8Clinch1
2Ground1
Dias
Lentz
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
—
Sub Attempts / fight
0.1
2.4
Grappling Style Score (/10)
2.7
1.7
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
1.9
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Dias
Lentz
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
90
52
Never stopped
Verdict
KO risk
0
KO/TKO Losses
1
0
Sub Losses
1
—
KO round context
Avg R2.0 stoppage
—
Last KO loss
2 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
8/29 fights
Chin rating based on
25/42 fights
Dias
Lentz
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
50
53
3-fight 📉 slide
Current form
3-fight 📉 slide
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R2
W · Dec · R3
W · KO · R2
Dias
Lentz
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
0%
36%
0
KO / TKO Wins
3
0
Submission Wins
2
3
Decision Wins
9
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Dias
Lentz
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
0.8
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
3.4
2.4
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.7
1.7
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.9
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
1.4
1.1
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
4.3
8.8
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
6.4
DiasLentz
Strike Zones
Dias
Attacking
24 landedAbsorbing
6 absorbedLentz
Attacking
6 landedAbsorbing
24 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Dias targets the head (100% of attacks) — Lentz absorbs 100% of strikes there
🎯Lentz targets the head (67% of attacks) — Dias absorbs 67% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Dias
RND
Lentz
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0
Dias · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.4WinLossTrend
Lentz · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.2WinLossTrend
Dias · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Jared GordonRating 5.9Decision
UFC Fight Night: Brunson vs. Machida · 2017-10
L · Dec · R3
Andre FiliRating 6.2Decision
UFC Fight Night: Lineker vs. Dodson · 2016-10
L · Dec · R3
Cub SwansonRating 6Decision
UFC on FOX: Teixeira vs Evans · 2016-04
W · Dec · R3
Levan MakashviliRating 4.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Machida vs Romero · 2015-06
W · Dec · R3
Darren ElkinsRating 5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Machida vs Dollaway · 2014-12
Lentz · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Movsar EvloevRating 6.8Decision
UFC 257: Poirier vs. McGregor · 2021-01
L · Dec · R3
Arnold AllenRating 6.9Decision
UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Dos Santos · 2020-01
L · KO · R2
Charles OliveiraRating 4.2KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Dos Anjos vs. Lee · 2019-05
W · Dec · R3
Scott HoltzmanRating 4.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Ngannou vs. Velasquez · 2019-02
W · KO · R2
Gray MaynardRating 5.2KO/TKO
UFC 229: Khabib vs. McGregor · 2018-10