UFC 262: Oliveira vs. Chandler
Houston, USA
15 May 2021
Lightweight
VS
45%
Ferguson
55%
Dariush
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Dariush
This is a genuine toss-up — Ferguson at 45% vs Dariush at 55% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 10 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Ferguson has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 10 points.
Striking split: Ferguson throws more volume but Dariush connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
Risk flags
Ferguson's chin rating of 12 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Dariush has a chin rating of 0 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Ferguson
Dariush
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'11"+
Height
5'10"
76"+
Reach
72"
42
Age
+37
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
Ferguson
Dariush
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
45.2
54.9
54.2
Performance Avg
50.4
49
Quality of Victory
39
52
Momentum Score
100
Ferguson
Dariush
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.9
1.7
47%
Strike Accuracy
51%
3.3
Striking Style Score (/10)
3.1
3 KOs
KO Finishes
3 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
3
Head
5
3
Body
2
0
Leg
0
RangeRange
3Distance5
0Clinch0
3Ground2
Ferguson
Dariush
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
—
3.8
Grappling Style Score (/10)
3.6
2.7
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
2.5
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Ferguson
Dariush
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
12
0
KO risk
Verdict
2 consec. KOs
2
KO/TKO Losses
7
3
Sub Losses
1
Avg R3.5 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.1 stoppage
4 fights ago
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
24/37 fights
Chin rating based on
26/31 fights
Ferguson
Dariush
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
52
100
8-fight 📉 slide
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
L · Sub · R1
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R3
L · Sub · R4
L · KO · R2
Last 5
L · KO · R1
L · KO · R1
W · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
L · KO · R1
Ferguson
Dariush
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
60%
47%
3
KO / TKO Wins
3
6
Submission Wins
5
6
Decision Wins
9
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Ferguson
Dariush
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
3.3
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
3.1
3.8
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
3.6
2.7
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
2.5
4.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
2.9
6.1
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
5.3
3.4
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
5.6
FergusonDariush
Strike Zones
Ferguson
Attacking
6 landedAbsorbing
7 absorbedDariush
Attacking
7 landedAbsorbing
6 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Ferguson targets the head (50% of attacks) — Dariush absorbs 50% of strikes there
🎯Dariush targets the head (71% of attacks) — Ferguson absorbs 71% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Ferguson
RND
Dariush
0/0R00/0
Ferguson · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.0WinLossTrend
Dariush · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.5WinLossTrend
Ferguson · Last 5
L · Sub · R1
Michael ChiesaRating 2.3Submission
UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. Nurmagomedov · 2024-08
L · Dec · R3
Paddy PimblettRating 7.2Decision
UFC 296: Edwards vs. Covington · 2023-12
L · Sub · R3
King GreenRating 4.7Submission
UFC 291: Poirier vs. Gaethje 2 · 2023-07
L · Sub · R4
Nate DiazRating 3.4Submission
UFC 279: Diaz vs. Ferguson · 2022-09
L · KO · R2
Michael ChandlerRating 3.5KO/TKO
UFC 274: Oliveira vs. Gaethje · 2022-05
Dariush · Last 5
L · KO · R1
Quillan SalkilldRating 3.6KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Della Maddalena vs. Prates · 2026-05
L · KO · R1
Benoit Saint DenisRating 3.3KO/TKO
UFC 322: Della Maddalena vs. Makhachev · 2025-11
W · Dec · R3
Renato MoicanoRating 5.3Decision
UFC 317: Topuria vs. Oliveira · 2025-06
L · KO · R1
Arman TsarukyanRating 3.1KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Dariush vs. Tsarukyan · 2023-12
L · KO · R1
Charles OliveiraRating 2.9KO/TKO
UFC 289: Nunes vs. Aldana · 2023-06