UFC Fight Night: Rodriguez vs. Lemos
Las Vegas, USA
5 Nov 2022
Flyweight
VS
7%
Candelario
93%
Hadley
Win Probability
Submission
Round 2 · 2:39
CC
Carlos Candelario
"The Cannon"
8 – 3
5'8"68" reachSouthpaw34 yrs2-fight slideWell-Rounded
CFR 4
Jake
Jake Hadley
"White Kong"
11 – 4
Well-Rounded29 yrsSouthpaw70" reach5'7"
CFR 49

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Hadley

Hadley is a strong favourite at 93% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 45 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Hadley has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 45 points.

Hadley has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Candelario
Hadley
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'8"+
Height
5'7"
68"
Reach
+70"
34
Age
+29
Southpaw
Stance
Southpaw
Candelario
Hadley
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
3.8
48.7
0.0
Performance Avg
44.0
0
Quality of Victory
45
0
Momentum Score
67
Candelario
Hadley
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
0.5
1.4
38%
Strike Accuracy
46%
0.0
Striking Style Score (/10)
4.2
0 KOs
KO Finishes
1 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
5
Head
30
5
Body
5
1
Leg
5
RangeRange
10Distance15
1Clinch2
0Ground23
Candelario
Hadley
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.7
Sub Attempts / fight
—
0.0
Grappling Style Score (/10)
3.5
0.0
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
2.4
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Candelario
Hadley
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
86
92
Never stopped
Verdict
Never stopped
0
KO/TKO Losses
0
1
Sub Losses
0
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
2/11 fights
Chin rating based on
7/15 fights
Candelario
Hadley
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
0
67
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
L · Sub · R2
L · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · KO · R1
Candelario
Hadley
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
0%
67%
0
KO / TKO Wins
1
0
Submission Wins
1
0
Decision Wins
1

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Candelario
Hadley
Striking0.0 / 4.2Volume0.0 / 3.5Grappling0.0 / 3.5Wrestling0.0 / 2.4Submission0.0 / 3.3Pressure0.0 / 6.0
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
0.0
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
4.2
0.0
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
3.5
0.0
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
2.4
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
3.3
0.0
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
6.0
0.0
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
3.5
Candelario
Strike Zones
Hadley
Candelario
Attacking
5HEAD5BODY1LEGS11 landed
Absorbing
30HEAD5BODY5LEGS40 absorbed
Hadley
Attacking
30HEAD5BODY5LEGS40 landed
Absorbing
5HEAD5BODY1LEGS11 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Candelario targets the head (45% of attacks) — Hadley absorbs 45% of strikes there
🎯Hadley targets the head (75% of attacks) — Candelario absorbs 75% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Candelario
RND
Hadley
0/0R00/0

Candelario · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.3
0107.2L3.4L2022-052022-11
WinLossTrend

Hadley · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.6
0107.0L5.2W5.0W5.6L6.4L4.6W5.5L2022-052023-032024-052024-10
WinLossTrend

Candelario · Last 2

L · Sub · R2
Jake HadleyRating 3.4
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Rodriguez vs. Lemos · 2022-11
L · Dec · R3
Tatsuro TairaRating 7.2
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Blachowicz vs. Rakic · 2022-05

Hadley · Last 5

L · Dec · R3
Cameron SmothermanRating 5.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Hernandez vs. Pereira · 2024-10
W · Dec · R3
Caolan LoughranRating 4.6
Decision
UFC 304: Edwards vs. Muhammad 2 · 2024-07
L · Dec · R3
Charles JohnsonRating 6.4
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Nascimento · 2024-05
L · Dec · R3
Cody DurdenRating 5.6
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. Font · 2023-08
W · KO · R1
Malcolm GordonRating 5
KO/TKO
UFC 286: Edwards vs. Usman 3 · 2023-03

News & Media

Carlos Candelario · Jake Hadley
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