UFC 309: Jones vs. Miocic
New York City, USA
16 Nov 2024
Middleweight
VS
58%
Nickal
42%
Craig
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Bo
Bo Nickal
8 – 1
6'1"76" reachSouthpaw30 yrsPressure Fighter
CFR 68
Paul
Paul Craig
"Bearjew"
17 – 10
Pressure Fighter4-fight slide38 yrsOrthodox76" reach6'3"
CFR 49

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Nickal

This is a genuine toss-up — Nickal at 58% vs Craig at 42% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 19 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Striking split: Craig throws more volume but Nickal connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.

Risk flags

Craig has a chin rating of 0 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Nickal
Craig
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'1"
Height
+6'3"
76"
Reach
76"
30+
Age
38
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
Nickal
Craig
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
68.4
49.1
62.0
Performance Avg
50.4
48
Quality of Victory
52
89
Momentum Score
46
Nickal
Craig
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
0.7
1.5
56%
Strike Accuracy
47%
5.7
Striking Style Score (/10)
4.3
2 KOs
KO Finishes
3 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
9
Head
6
2
Body
2
5
Leg
5
RangeRange
16Distance13
0Clinch0
0Ground0
Nickal
Craig
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
—
Sub Attempts / fight
0.1
3.7
Grappling Style Score (/10)
5.3
2.6
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
3.7
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Nickal
Craig
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
78
0
Moderate
Verdict
2 consec. KOs
1
KO/TKO Losses
6
0
Sub Losses
2
Avg R2.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.2 stoppage
2 fights ago
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
7/9 fights
Chin rating based on
21/27 fights
Nickal
Craig
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
89
46
Current form
4-fight 📉 slide
Upcoming
W · KO · R3
L · KO · R2
W · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R2
Last 5
L · KO · R1
Upcoming
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R2
L · Sub · R3
Nickal
Craig
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
80%
100%
2
KO / TKO Wins
3
2
Submission Wins
6
1
Decision Wins
0

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Nickal
Craig
Striking5.7 / 4.3Volume3.3 / 0.9Grappling3.7 / 5.3Wrestling2.6 / 3.7Submission4.0 / 6.7Pressure8.1 / 8.4
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
5.7
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
4.3
3.7
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
5.3
2.6
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
3.7
4.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
6.7
8.1
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
8.4
3.3
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
0.9
Nickal
Strike Zones
Craig
Nickal
Attacking
9HEAD2BODY5LEGS16 landed
Absorbing
6HEAD2BODY5LEGS13 absorbed
Craig
Attacking
6HEAD2BODY5LEGS13 landed
Absorbing
9HEAD2BODY5LEGS16 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Nickal targets the head (56% of attacks) — Craig absorbs 56% of strikes there
🎯Craig targets the head (46% of attacks) — Nickal absorbs 46% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Nickal
RND
Craig
0/0R00/0

Nickal · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.3
0105.0W5.0W5.8W5.2W3.8L6.8W2023-032023-072024-042024-112025-052025-11
WinLossTrend

Craig · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.8
0105.2W2.5L2.4L7.0W5.5L6.8W2.4L5.0W5.0W5.2W6.3W6.2W6.3L2.3L6.2W4.1L4.1L7.2L2.3L2016-122019-032021-062023-112025-09
WinLossTrend

Nickal · Last 5

Upcoming
Kyle Daukaus
UFC Freedom 250 · 2026-06
W · KO · R3
Rodolfo VieiraRating 6.8
KO/TKO
UFC 322: Della Maddalena vs. Makhachev · 2025-11
L · KO · R2
Reinier de RidderRating 3.8
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. Figueiredo · 2025-05
W · Dec · R3
Paul CraigRating 5.2
Decision
UFC 309: Jones vs. Miocic · 2024-11
W · Sub · R2
Cody BrundageRating 5.8
Submission
UFC 300: Pereira vs. Hill · 2024-04

Craig · Last 5

L · KO · R1
Modestas BukauskasRating 2.3
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Imavov vs. Borralho · 2025-09
Upcoming
Rodolfo Bellato
UFC Fight Night: Usman vs. Buckley · 2025-06
L · Dec · R3
Bo NickalRating 7.2
Decision
UFC 309: Jones vs. Miocic · 2024-11
L · KO · R2
Caio BorralhoRating 4.1
KO/TKO
UFC 301: Pantoja vs. Erceg · 2024-05
L · Sub · R3
Brendan AllenRating 4.1
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Craig · 2023-11

News & Media

Bo Nickal · Paul Craig
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