METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
UFC 309: Jones vs. Miocic
New York City, USA
16 Nov 2024
Middleweight
VS
59%
Nickal
41%
Craig
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
★ Official Result
Bo NickalwinsDecisionR3 · 5:00
def. Paul Craig · UFC 309: Jones vs. Miocic
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Nickal
→
Actual result
Nickal wins
Decision · R3
Pre-fight analysis
This is a genuine toss-up — Nickal at 59% vs Craig at 41% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 21 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Risk flags
Craig has a chin rating of 0 — a potential KO vulnerability.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
NickalCraig
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Nickal
Craig
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'1"
Height
+6'3"
76"
Reach
76"
30+
Age
38
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
Nickal
Craig
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
70.0
49.1
64.1
Performance Avg
50.4
50
Quality of Victory
52
89
Momentum Score
46
Nickal
Craig
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
6.7
/ 10
4.3
/ 10
8.4
Style: Pressure
8.4
3.0
Style: Volume
0.9
3 KO wins
Finish Rate (strikes)
3 KO wins
Per-minute strike stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Strike targetStrike target
9
Head
6
2
Body
2
5
Leg
5
RangeRange
16Distance13
0Clinch0
0Ground0
Nickal
Craig
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
3.1
/ 10
5.3
/ 10
2.1
Wrestling Style (/10)
3.7
3.3
Submission Style (/10)
6.7
2
Submission wins
6
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Nickal
Craig
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
78
0
Moderate
Verdict
2 consec. KOs
1
KO/TKO Losses
6
0
Sub Losses
2
Avg R2.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.2 stoppage
2 fights ago
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
7/9 fights
Chin rating based on
21/27 fights
Nickal
Craig
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
89
46
2-fight 🔥 win streak
Current form
4-fight 📉 slide
W · KO · R1
W · KO · R3
L · KO · R2
W · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R2
Last 5
L · KO · R1
Upcoming
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R2
L · Sub · R3
Nickal
Craig
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
83%
100%
3
KO / TKO Wins
3
2
Submission Wins
6
1
Decision Wins
0
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Nickal
Craig
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
6.7
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
4.3
3.1
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
5.3
2.1
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
3.7
3.3
Submission
Submission attack frequency
6.7
8.4
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
8.4
3.0
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
0.9
NickalCraig
Strike Zones
Nickal
Attacking
16 landedAbsorbing
13 absorbedCraig
Attacking
13 landedAbsorbing
16 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Nickal targets the head (56% of attacks) — Craig absorbs 56% of strikes there
🎯Craig targets the head (46% of attacks) — Nickal absorbs 46% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Nickal
RND
Craig
0/0R00/0
Nickal · Last 5
W · KO · R1
Kyle DaukausKO/TKO
UFC Freedom 250 · 2026-06
W · KO · R3
Rodolfo VieiraKO/TKO
UFC 322: Della Maddalena vs. Makhachev · 2025-11
L · KO · R2
Reinier de RidderKO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. Figueiredo · 2025-05
W · Dec · R3
Paul CraigDecision
UFC 309: Jones vs. Miocic · 2024-11
W · Sub · R2
Cody BrundageSubmission
UFC 300: Pereira vs. Hill · 2024-04
Craig · Last 5
L · KO · R1
Modestas BukauskasKO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Imavov vs. Borralho · 2025-09
Upcoming
Rodolfo BellatoUFC Fight Night: Usman vs. Buckley · 2025-06
L · Dec · R3
Bo NickalDecision
UFC 309: Jones vs. Miocic · 2024-11
L · KO · R2
Caio BorralhoKO/TKO
UFC 301: Pantoja vs. Erceg · 2024-05
L · Sub · R3
Brendan AllenSubmission
UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Craig · 2023-11