METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
UFC Fight Night: Oliveira vs. Gamrot
Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
11 Oct 2025
Featherweight
VS
40%
Almeida
60%
Jr.
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 1 · 1:42
★ Official Result
Michael Aswell Jr.winsKO/TKOR1 · 1:42
def. Lucas Almeida · UFC Fight Night: Oliveira vs. Gamrot
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Jr.
→
Actual result
Jr. wins
KO/TKO · R1
Pre-fight analysis
Jr. holds a meaningful edge at 60% per the CFR ratings — but Almeida has real paths to victory.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 20 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Jr. has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 23 points.
Jr. has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Almeida's chin rating of 42 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
AlmeidaJr.
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Almeida
Jr.
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'11"+
Height
5'8"
71"+
Reach
69"
35
Age
+25
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Almeida
Jr.
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
36.9
56.5
35.8
Performance Avg
49.3
38
Quality of Victory
60
33
Momentum Score
43
Almeida
Jr.
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
1.6
2.0
37%
Strike Accuracy
43%
5.7
Striking Style Score (/10)
10.0
1 KOs
KO Finishes
1 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
3
Head
30
1
Body
0
5
Leg
0
RangeRange
9Distance19
0Clinch1
0Ground10
Almeida
Jr.
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
1.2
/ 10
0.0
/ 10
0.8
Wrestling Style (/10)
0.0
0.0
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
0
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Almeida
Jr.
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
42
96
KO risk
Verdict
Never stopped
2
KO/TKO Losses
0
1
Sub Losses
0
Avg R1.0 stoppage
KO round context
—
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
—
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
6/20 fights
Chin rating based on
4/15 fights
Almeida
Jr.
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
33
43
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
L · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
L · Sub · R2
Last 5
Upcoming
L · Dec · R3
W · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
Almeida
Jr.
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
50%
100%
1
KO / TKO Wins
1
0
Submission Wins
0
1
Decision Wins
0
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Almeida
Jr.
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
5.7
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
10.0
1.2
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.0
0.8
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.0
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
4.5
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
8.0
4.7
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
0.7
AlmeidaJr.
Strike Zones
Almeida
Attacking
9 landedAbsorbing
30 absorbedJr.
Attacking
30 landedAbsorbing
9 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Almeida targets the legs (56% of attacks) — Jr. absorbs 56% of strikes there
🎯Jr. targets the head (100% of attacks) — Almeida absorbs 100% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Almeida
RND
Jr.
0/0R00/0
0/0R20/0
Almeida · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.3WinLossTrend
Jr. · QOF Timeline
Avg: 6.0WinLossTrend
Almeida · Last 5
L · KO · R1
Michael Aswell Jr.Rating 2.6KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Oliveira vs. Gamrot · 2025-10
L · Dec · R3
Danny SilvaRating 6.8Decision
UFC Fight Night: Kape vs. Almabayev · 2025-03
W · Dec · R3
Timmy CuambaRating 4.8Decision
UFC Fight Night: Perez vs. Taira · 2024-06
L · KO · R1
Andre FiliRating 2.2KO/TKO
UFC 296: Edwards vs. Covington · 2023-12
L · Sub · R2
Pat SabatiniRating 3.8Submission
UFC Fight Night: Vettori vs. Cannonier · 2023-06
Jr. · Last 4
Upcoming
Gaston BolanosUFC Fight Night: Kape vs. Horiguchi · 2026-06
L · Dec · R3
Luke RileyRating 7.3Decision
UFC Fight Night: Evloev vs. Murphy · 2026-03
W · KO · R1
Lucas AlmeidaRating 5.1KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Oliveira vs. Gamrot · 2025-10
L · Dec · R3
Bolaji OkiRating 5.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Blanchfield vs. Barber · 2025-05