METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
UFC Fight Night: Oliveira vs. Gamrot
Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
11 Oct 2025
Featherweight
VS
41%
Almeida
59%
Jr.
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 1 · 1:42
CFR 53
★ Official Result
Michael Aswell Jr.winsKO/TKOR1 · 1:42
def. Lucas Almeida · UFC Fight Night: Oliveira vs. Gamrot
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Jr.
→
Actual result
Jr. wins
KO/TKO · R1
Pre-fight analysis
This is a genuine toss-up — Almeida at 41% vs Jr. at 59% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 16 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Jr. has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 23 points.
Risk flags
Almeida's chin rating of 42 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
AlmeidaJr.
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Almeida
Jr.
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'11"+
Height
5'8"
71"+
Reach
69"
35
Age
+25
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Almeida
Jr.
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
36.9
53.0
35.8
Performance Avg
46.0
38
Quality of Victory
60
33
Momentum Score
36
Almeida
Jr.
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
5.7
/ 10
10.0
/ 10
4.5
Style: Pressure
7.8
4.7
Style: Volume
0.5
1 KO wins
Finish Rate (strikes)
1 KO wins
Per-minute strike stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Strike targetStrike target
3
Head
30
1
Body
0
5
Leg
0
RangeRange
9Distance19
0Clinch1
0Ground10
Almeida
Jr.
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
1.2
/ 10
0.0
/ 10
0.8
Wrestling Style (/10)
0.0
0.0
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
0
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Almeida
Jr.
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
42
94
KO risk
Verdict
Never stopped
2
KO/TKO Losses
0
1
Sub Losses
0
Avg R1.0 stoppage
KO round context
—
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
—
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
6/20 fights
Chin rating based on
5/15 fights
Almeida
Jr.
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
33
36
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
L · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
L · Sub · R2
Last 5
Upcoming
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
Almeida
Jr.
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
50%
100%
1
KO / TKO Wins
1
0
Submission Wins
0
1
Decision Wins
0
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Almeida
Jr.
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
5.7
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
10.0
1.2
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.0
0.8
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.0
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
4.5
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
7.8
4.7
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
0.5
AlmeidaJr.
Strike Zones
Almeida
Attacking
9 landedAbsorbing
30 absorbedJr.
Attacking
30 landedAbsorbing
9 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Almeida targets the legs (56% of attacks) — Jr. absorbs 56% of strikes there
🎯Jr. targets the head (100% of attacks) — Almeida absorbs 100% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Almeida
RND
Jr.
0/0R00/0
0/0R20/0
Almeida · Last 5
L · KO · R1
Michael Aswell Jr.KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Oliveira vs. Gamrot · 2025-10
L · Dec · R3
Danny SilvaDecision
UFC Fight Night: Kape vs. Almabayev · 2025-03
W · Dec · R3
Timmy CuambaDecision
UFC Fight Night: Perez vs. Taira · 2024-06
L · KO · R1
Andre FiliKO/TKO
UFC 296: Edwards vs. Covington · 2023-12
L · Sub · R2
Pat SabatiniSubmission
UFC Fight Night: Vettori vs. Cannonier · 2023-06
Jr. · Last 5
Upcoming
JooSang YooUFC 331: Van vs. Pantoja 2 · 2026-09
L · Dec · R3
Gaston BolanosDecision
UFC Fight Night: Kape vs. Horiguchi · 2026-06
L · Dec · R3
Luke RileyDecision
UFC Fight Night: Evloev vs. Murphy · 2026-03
W · KO · R1
Lucas AlmeidaKO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Oliveira vs. Gamrot · 2025-10
L · Dec · R3
Bolaji OkiDecision
UFC Fight Night: Blanchfield vs. Barber · 2025-05