UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. Nurmagomedov
Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates
3 Aug 2024
Lightweight
VS
87%
Herbert
13%
Bedoya
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Herbert
Herbert is a strong favourite at 87% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 42 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Herbert has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 43 points.
Bedoya has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Herbert's chin rating of 40 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Herbert
Bedoya
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'1"+
Height
5'11"
77"+
Reach
74"
38
Age
+29
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Herbert
Bedoya
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
49.6
7.4
43.3
Performance Avg
0.0
43
Quality of Victory
0
74
Momentum Score
0
Herbert
Bedoya
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.5
2.5
45%
Strike Accuracy
47%
5.9
Striking Style Score (/10)
0.0
2 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
24
Head
13
8
Body
0
5
Leg
3
RangeRange
37Distance16
0Clinch0
0Ground0
Herbert
Bedoya
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
1.2
/ 10
0.0
/ 10
0.8
Wrestling Style (/10)
0.0
0.0
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
0
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Herbert
Bedoya
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
40
92
KO risk
Verdict
Never stopped
2
KO/TKO Losses
0
1
Sub Losses
0
Avg R2.5 stoppage
KO round context
—
6 fights ago
Last KO loss
—
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
10/20 fights
Chin rating based on
4/19 fights
Herbert
Bedoya
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
74
0
Current form
4-fight 📉 slide
W · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
Upcoming
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
Herbert
Bedoya
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
50%
0%
2
KO / TKO Wins
0
0
Submission Wins
0
2
Decision Wins
0
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Herbert
Bedoya
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
5.9
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.0
1.2
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.0
0.8
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.0
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
4.8
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
0.0
4.9
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
0.0
HerbertBedoya
Strike Zones
Herbert
Attacking
37 landedAbsorbing
16 absorbedBedoya
Attacking
16 landedAbsorbing
37 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Herbert targets the head (65% of attacks) — Bedoya absorbs 65% of strikes there
🎯Bedoya targets the head (81% of attacks) — Herbert absorbs 81% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Herbert
RND
Bedoya
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0
Herbert · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.1WinLossTrend
Bedoya · QOF Timeline
Avg: 6.2WinLossTrend
Herbert · Last 5
W · KO · R1
Mandel NalloRating 5KO/TKO
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L · Dec · R3
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Bedoya · Last 4
L · Dec · R3
Jamie MullarkeyRating 5.7Decision
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L · Dec · R3
Song KenanRating 5.9Decision
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