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All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.

UFC 272: Covington vs. Masvidal
Las Vegas, USA
5 Mar 2022
Welterweight
VS
61%
Covington
39%
Masvidal
Win Probability
Decision
Round 5 · 5:00
Colby
Colby Covington
"Chaos"
17 – 5
5'11"72" reachOrthodox38 yrs2-fight slideWell-Rounded
CFR 55
JM
Jorge Masvidal
"Gamebred"
35 – 17
Well-Rounded4-fight slide41 yrsOrthodox74" reach5'11"
CFR 35
★ Official Result
Colby CovingtonwinsDecisionR5 · 5:00
def. Jorge Masvidal · UFC 272: Covington vs. Masvidal

Fight Report

Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result

Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Covington
→
Actual result
Covington wins
Decision · R5
Pre-fight analysis

Covington holds a meaningful edge at 61% per the CFR ratings — but Masvidal has real paths to victory.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 20 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Risk flags

Covington's chin rating of 60 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Masvidal has a chin rating of 60 — a potential KO vulnerability.

This Fight — Statistics

Actual stats from this bout
CovingtonMasvidal
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Covington
Masvidal
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'11"
Height
5'11"
72"
Reach
+74"
38+
Age
41
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Covington
Masvidal
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
55.0
35.2
53.2
Performance Avg
47.0
42
Quality of Victory
42
100
Momentum Score
43
Covington
Masvidal
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
3.9
/ 10
5.3
/ 10
5.0
Style: Pressure
5.1
6.1
Style: Volume
4.4
3 KO wins
Finish Rate (strikes)
5 KO wins
Per-minute strike stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Strike targetStrike target
13
Head
1
0
Body
0
0
Leg
0
RangeRange
3Distance0
0Clinch1
10Ground0
Covington
Masvidal
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
2.7
/ 10
1.7
/ 10
1.9
Wrestling Style (/10)
1.2
1.7
Submission Style (/10)
0.8
2
Submission wins
1
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Covington
Masvidal
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
60
60
Moderate
Verdict
Moderate
1
KO/TKO Losses
1
1
Sub Losses
0
Avg R5.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R2.0 stoppage
5 fights ago
Last KO loss
2 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
17/22 fights
Chin rating based on
22/52 fights
Covington
Masvidal
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
100
43
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
4-fight 📉 slide
L · R3
L · Dec · R5
W · Dec · R5
L · Dec · R5
W · KO · R5
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R5
L · KO · R2
L · Dec · R5
W · R3
Covington
Masvidal
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
42%
50%
3
KO / TKO Wins
5
2
Submission Wins
1
7
Decision Wins
6

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Covington
Masvidal
Striking3.9 / 5.3Volume6.1 / 4.4Grappling2.7 / 1.7Wrestling1.9 / 1.2Submission1.7 / 0.8Pressure5.0 / 5.1
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
3.9
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
5.3
2.7
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
1.7
1.9
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.2
1.7
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.8
5.0
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
5.1
6.1
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
4.4
Covington
Strike Zones
Masvidal
Covington
Attacking
13HEAD0BODY0LEGS13 landed
Absorbing
1HEAD0BODY0LEGS1 absorbed
Masvidal
Attacking
1HEAD0BODY0LEGS1 landed
Absorbing
13HEAD0BODY0LEGS13 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Covington targets the head (100% of attacks) — Masvidal absorbs 100% of strikes there
🎯Masvidal targets the head (100% of attacks) — Covington absorbs 100% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Covington
RND
Masvidal
0/0R00/0

Covington · Last 5

L · R3
Joaquin Buckley
UFC Fight Night: Covington vs. Buckley · 2024-12
L · Dec · R5
Leon Edwards
Decision
UFC 296: Edwards vs. Covington · 2023-12
W · Dec · R5
Jorge Masvidal
Decision
UFC 272: Covington vs. Masvidal · 2022-03
L · Dec · R5
Kamaru Usman
Decision
UFC 268: Usman vs. Covington 2 · 2021-11
W · KO · R5
Tyron Woodley
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Covington vs. Woodley · 2020-09

Masvidal · Last 5

L · Dec · R3
Gilbert Burns
Decision
UFC 287: Pereira vs. Adesanya 2 · 2023-04
L · Dec · R5
Colby Covington
Decision
UFC 272: Covington vs. Masvidal · 2022-03
L · KO · R2
Kamaru Usman
KO/TKO
UFC 261: Usman vs. Masvidal 2 · 2021-04
L · Dec · R5
Kamaru Usman
Decision
UFC 251: Usman vs. Masvidal · 2020-07
W · R3
Nate Diaz
UFC 244: Masvidal vs. Diaz · 2019-11

News & Media

Colby Covington · Jorge Masvidal
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