UFC 272: Covington vs. Masvidal
Las Vegas, USA
5 Mar 2022
Welterweight
VS
63%
Covington
37%
Masvidal
Win Probability
Decision
Round 5 · 5:00
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Covington
Covington holds a meaningful edge at 63% per the CFR ratings — but Masvidal has real paths to victory.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 26 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Masvidal has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Covington's chin rating of 60 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Masvidal has a chin rating of 60 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Covington
Masvidal
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'11"
Height
5'11"
72"
Reach
+74"
38+
Age
41
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Covington
Masvidal
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
61.2
35.2
53.2
Performance Avg
47.0
42
Quality of Victory
42
100
Momentum Score
43
Covington
Masvidal
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
0.8
1.2
38%
Strike Accuracy
49%
3.9
Striking Style Score (/10)
5.3
3 KOs
KO Finishes
5 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
13
Head
1
0
Body
0
0
Leg
0
RangeRange
3Distance0
0Clinch1
10Ground0
Covington
Masvidal
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
—
Sub Attempts / fight
0.1
2.7
Grappling Style Score (/10)
1.7
1.9
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
1.2
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Covington
Masvidal
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
60
60
Moderate
Verdict
Moderate
1
KO/TKO Losses
1
1
Sub Losses
0
Avg R5.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R2.0 stoppage
5 fights ago
Last KO loss
2 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
17/22 fights
Chin rating based on
22/52 fights
Covington
Masvidal
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
100
43
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
4-fight 📉 slide
L · R3
L · Dec · R5
W · Dec · R5
L · Dec · R5
W · KO · R5
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R5
L · KO · R2
L · Dec · R5
W · R3
Covington
Masvidal
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
42%
50%
3
KO / TKO Wins
5
2
Submission Wins
1
7
Decision Wins
6
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Covington
Masvidal
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
3.9
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
5.3
2.7
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
1.7
1.9
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.2
1.7
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.8
5.0
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
5.1
6.1
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
4.4
CovingtonMasvidal
Strike Zones
Covington
Attacking
13 landedAbsorbing
1 absorbedMasvidal
Attacking
1 landedAbsorbing
13 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Covington targets the head (100% of attacks) — Masvidal absorbs 100% of strikes there
🎯Masvidal targets the head (100% of attacks) — Covington absorbs 100% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Covington
RND
Masvidal
0/0R00/0
Covington · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.1WinLossTrend
Masvidal · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.2WinLossTrend
Covington · Last 5
L · R3
Joaquin BuckleyRating 5.9UFC Fight Night: Covington vs. Buckley · 2024-12
L · Dec · R5
Leon EdwardsRating 6.6Decision
UFC 296: Edwards vs. Covington · 2023-12
W · Dec · R5
Jorge MasvidalRating 4.5Decision
UFC 272: Covington vs. Masvidal · 2022-03
L · Dec · R5
Kamaru UsmanRating 6.6Decision
UFC 268: Usman vs. Covington 2 · 2021-11
W · KO · R5
Tyron WoodleyRating 5.5KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Covington vs. Woodley · 2020-09
Masvidal · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Gilbert BurnsRating 5.7Decision
UFC 287: Pereira vs. Adesanya 2 · 2023-04
L · Dec · R5
Colby CovingtonRating 6.8Decision
UFC 272: Covington vs. Masvidal · 2022-03
L · KO · R2
Kamaru UsmanRating 3.2KO/TKO
UFC 261: Usman vs. Masvidal 2 · 2021-04
L · Dec · R5
Kamaru UsmanRating 6.6Decision
UFC 251: Usman vs. Masvidal · 2020-07
W · R3
Nate DiazRating 4.3UFC 244: Masvidal vs. Diaz · 2019-11