UFC 314: Volkanovski vs. Lopes
Miami, USA
12 Apr 2025
Lightweight
VS
42%
Chandler
58%
Pimblett
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 3 · 3:07
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Pimblett
This is a genuine toss-up — Chandler at 42% vs Pimblett at 58% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 19 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Chandler has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 11 points.
Striking split: Pimblett throws more volume but Chandler connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
Risk flags
Chandler's chin rating of 40 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Chandler
Pimblett
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'8"
Height
+5'10"
71"
Reach
+73"
40
Age
+31
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Chandler
Pimblett
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
50.3
69.2
45.9
Performance Avg
63.1
58
Quality of Victory
47
46
Momentum Score
85
Chandler
Pimblett
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
0.9
1.4
57%
Strike Accuracy
52%
10.0
Striking Style Score (/10)
4.6
2 KOs
KO Finishes
2 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
1
Head
28
0
Body
2
0
Leg
0
RangeRange
1Distance8
0Clinch0
0Ground22
Chandler
Pimblett
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
0.0
/ 10
4.1
/ 10
0.0
Wrestling Style (/10)
2.9
0.0
Submission Style (/10)
4.3
0
Submission wins
3
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Chandler
Pimblett
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
40
98
KO risk
Verdict
Never stopped
2
KO/TKO Losses
0
1
Sub Losses
0
Avg R2.5 stoppage
KO round context
—
1 fight ago
Last KO loss
—
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
8/33 fights
Chin rating based on
9/27 fights
Chandler
Pimblett
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
46
85
3-fight 📉 slide
Current form
Upcoming
L · KO · R3
L · Dec · R5
L · Sub · R3
W · KO · R2
Last 5
Upcoming
L · Dec · R5
W · KO · R3
W · Sub · R1
W · Dec · R3
Chandler
Pimblett
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
100%
71%
2
KO / TKO Wins
2
0
Submission Wins
3
0
Decision Wins
2
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Chandler
Pimblett
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
10.0
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
4.6
0.0
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
4.1
0.0
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
2.9
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
4.3
7.9
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
7.6
0.6
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
4.0
ChandlerPimblett
Strike Zones
Chandler
Attacking
1 landedAbsorbing
30 absorbedPimblett
Attacking
30 landedAbsorbing
1 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Chandler targets the head (100% of attacks) — Pimblett absorbs 100% of strikes there
🎯Pimblett targets the head (93% of attacks) — Chandler absorbs 93% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Chandler
RND
Pimblett
0/0R00/0
Chandler · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.6WinLossTrend
Pimblett · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.7WinLossTrend
Chandler · Last 5
Upcoming
Mauricio RuffyUFC Freedom 250 · 2026-06
L · KO · R3
Paddy PimblettRating 4.5KO/TKO
UFC 314: Volkanovski vs. Lopes · 2025-04
L · Dec · R5
Charles OliveiraRating 6.9Decision
UFC 309: Jones vs. Miocic · 2024-11
L · Sub · R3
Dustin PoirierRating 5.3Submission
UFC 281: Adesanya vs. Pereira · 2022-11
W · KO · R2
Tony FergusonRating 5.8KO/TKO
UFC 274: Oliveira vs. Gaethje · 2022-05
Pimblett · Last 5
Upcoming
Benoit Saint DenisUFC 329: McGregor vs. Holloway 2 · 2026-07
L · Dec · R5
Justin GaethjeRating 7.1Decision
UFC 324: Gaethje vs. Pimblett · 2026-01
W · KO · R3
Michael ChandlerRating 6KO/TKO
UFC 314: Volkanovski vs. Lopes · 2025-04
W · Sub · R1
King GreenRating 5.7Submission
UFC 304: Edwards vs. Muhammad 2 · 2024-07
W · Dec · R3
Tony FergusonRating 5Decision
UFC 296: Edwards vs. Covington · 2023-12