UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Saint Denis
Paris, France
28 Sept 2024
Bantamweight
VS
59%
Lapilus
41%
Morales
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Taylor
Taylor Lapilus
"Double Impact"
21 – 4
5'6"73" reachSouthpaw34 yrs2-fight win streakWell-Rounded
CFR 50
VM
Vince Morales
"Vandetta"
16 – 11
Well-Rounded6-fight slide35 yrsOrthodox70" reach5'7"
CFR 35

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Lapilus

This is a genuine toss-up — Lapilus at 59% vs Morales at 41% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 15 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Striking split: Morales throws more volume but Lapilus connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.

Risk flags

Morales has a chin rating of 62 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Lapilus
Morales
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'6"
Height
+5'7"
73"+
Reach
70"
34+
Age
35
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
Lapilus
Morales
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
49.7
34.6
48.0
Performance Avg
32.0
30
Quality of Victory
37
85
Momentum Score
30
Lapilus
Morales
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.5
1.6
48%
Strike Accuracy
38%
3.2
Striking Style Score (/10)
3.8
1 KOs
KO Finishes
1 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
21
Head
11
7
Body
1
1
Leg
0
RangeRange
23Distance11
6Clinch1
0Ground0
Lapilus
Morales
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
—
Sub Attempts / fight
0.1
2.0
Grappling Style Score (/10)
1.6
1.4
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
1.1
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Lapilus
Morales
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
96
62
Never stopped
Verdict
Moderate
0
KO/TKO Losses
1
0
Sub Losses
0
—
KO round context
Avg R2.0 stoppage
—
Last KO loss
8 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
8/25 fights
Chin rating based on
12/27 fights
Lapilus
Morales
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
85
30
2-fight 🔥 win streak
Current form
6-fight 📉 slide
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
Lapilus
Morales
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
17%
33%
1
KO / TKO Wins
1
0
Submission Wins
0
5
Decision Wins
2

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Lapilus
Morales
Striking3.2 / 3.8Volume8.2 / 5.8Grappling2.0 / 1.6Wrestling1.4 / 1.1Submission0.0 / 0.0Pressure3.4 / 3.1
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
3.2
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
3.8
2.0
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
1.6
1.4
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.1
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
3.4
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
3.1
8.2
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
5.8
Lapilus
Strike Zones
Morales
Lapilus
Attacking
21HEAD7BODY1LEGS29 landed
Absorbing
11HEAD1BODY0LEGS12 absorbed
Morales
Attacking
11HEAD1BODY0LEGS12 landed
Absorbing
21HEAD7BODY1LEGS29 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Lapilus targets the head (72% of attacks) — Morales absorbs 72% of strikes there
🎯Morales targets the head (92% of attacks) — Lapilus absorbs 92% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Lapilus
RND
Morales
0/0R00/0

Lapilus · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.0
0104.5W5.2W5.5L4.5W4.6W7.0L4.5W4.5W2015-042015-112023-092024-062024-09
WinLossTrend

Morales · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.7
0106.8L5.6W5.5L3.2L4.5W5.0W6.0L5.5L6.2L7.4L7.1L6.0L2018-112020-052022-052025-022026-05
WinLossTrend

Lapilus · Last 5

W · Dec · R3
Vince MoralesRating 4.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Saint Denis · 2024-09
W · Dec · R3
Cody StamannRating 4.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. Imavov · 2024-06
L · Dec · R3
Farid BasharatRating 7
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Ankalaev vs. Walker 2 · 2024-01
W · Dec · R3
Caolan LoughranRating 4.6
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Gane vs. Spivac · 2023-09
W · Dec · R3
Leandro IssaRating 4.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Arlovski vs. Barnett · 2016-09

Morales · Last 5

L · Dec · R3
Colby ThicknesseRating 6
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Della Maddalena vs. Prates · 2026-05
L · Dec · R3
Raul Rosas Jr.Rating 7.1
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Erceg · 2025-03
L · Dec · R3
Elijah SmithRating 7.4
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. Rodrigues · 2025-02
L · Dec · R3
Taylor LapilusRating 6.2
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Saint Denis · 2024-09
L · Dec · R3
Miles JohnsRating 5.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Nzechukwu vs. Cutelaba · 2022-11

News & Media

Taylor Lapilus · Vince Morales
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