UFC Fight Night: Smith vs. Spann
Las Vegas, USA
18 Sept 2021
Light Heavyweight
VS
57%
Rodriguez
43%
Nchukwi
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Rodriguez
This is a genuine toss-up — Rodriguez at 57% vs Nchukwi at 43% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
Rodriguez has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 35 points.
Striking split: Rodriguez throws more volume but Nchukwi connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
Risk flags
Rodriguez's chin rating of 50 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Nchukwi has a chin rating of 52 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Rodriguez
Nchukwi
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'4"+
Height
6'0"
82"+
Reach
77"
37
Age
+31
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
Rodriguez
Nchukwi
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
26.6
20.4
47.4
Performance Avg
28.3
60
Quality of Victory
25
26
Momentum Score
25
Rodriguez
Nchukwi
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
2.2
1.3
58%
Strike Accuracy
58%
10.0
Striking Style Score (/10)
0.7
2 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
8
Head
30
7
Body
9
2
Leg
3
RangeRange
17Distance33
0Clinch6
0Ground3
Rodriguez
Nchukwi
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
0.0
/ 10
2.4
/ 10
0.0
Wrestling Style (/10)
1.7
0.0
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
0
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Rodriguez
Nchukwi
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
50
52
KO risk
Verdict
2 consec. KOs
1
KO/TKO Losses
2
2
Sub Losses
0
Avg R1.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R2.0 stoppage
4 fights ago
Last KO loss
1 fight ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
8/18 fights
Chin rating based on
6/10 fights
Rodriguez
Nchukwi
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
26
25
3-fight 📉 slide
Current form
3-fight 📉 slide
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R2
L · Sub · R3
W · KO · R1
L · KO · R1
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
L · KO · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
Rodriguez
Nchukwi
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
100%
0%
2
KO / TKO Wins
0
0
Submission Wins
0
0
Decision Wins
2
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Rodriguez
Nchukwi
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
10.0
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.7
0.0
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.4
0.0
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.7
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
7.9
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
1.0
0.6
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
8.7
RodriguezNchukwi
Strike Zones
Rodriguez
Attacking
17 landedAbsorbing
42 absorbedNchukwi
Attacking
42 landedAbsorbing
17 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Rodriguez targets the head (47% of attacks) — Nchukwi absorbs 47% of strikes there
🎯Nchukwi targets the head (71% of attacks) — Rodriguez absorbs 71% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Rodriguez
RND
Nchukwi
0/0R00/0
Rodriguez · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.4WinLossTrend
Nchukwi · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.1WinLossTrend
Rodriguez · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Tafon NchukwiRating 5.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Smith vs. Spann · 2021-09
L · Sub · R2
Danilo MarquesRating 2.8Submission
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L · Sub · R3
Ed HermanRating 4.2Submission
UFC Fight Night: Waterson vs. Hill · 2020-09
W · KO · R1
Marcin PrachnioRating 5.4KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Munhoz vs. Edgar · 2020-08
L · KO · R1
Da Woon JungRating 2.1KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Edgar vs. The Korean Zombie · 2019-12
Nchukwi · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
AJ DobsonRating 5.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Luque vs. Dos Anjos · 2023-08
L · KO · R1
Carlos UlbergRating 3.4KO/TKO
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L · KO · R3
Azamat MurzakanovRating 5.9KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Santos vs. Ankalaev · 2022-03
W · Dec · R3
Mike RodriguezRating 4.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Smith vs. Spann · 2021-09
L · Dec · R3
JunYong ParkRating 6.6Decision
UFC Fight Night: Rodriguez vs. Waterson · 2021-05