UFC 158: St-Pierre vs Diaz
Montreal, Canada
16 Mar 2013
Welterweight
VS
89%
Cote
11%
Voelker
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Cote
Cote is a strong favourite at 89% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 14 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Cote has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 38 points.
Striking split: Voelker throws more volume but Cote connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
Risk flags
Cote's chin rating of 8 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Cote
Voelker
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'11"
Height
+6'0"
75"+
Reach
74"
46+
Age
47
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Cote
Voelker
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
16.1
2.0
41.8
Performance Avg
0.0
38
Quality of Victory
0
79
Momentum Score
0
Cote
Voelker
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.0
1.3
49%
Strike Accuracy
37%
5.0
Striking Style Score (/10)
0.0
4 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
6
Head
22
2
Body
4
2
Leg
5
RangeRange
8Distance11
2Clinch9
0Ground11
Cote
Voelker
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.2
Sub Attempts / fight
0.3
1.2
Grappling Style Score (/10)
0.0
0.8
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
0.0
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Cote
Voelker
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
8
72
KO risk
Verdict
Moderate
2
KO/TKO Losses
1
3
Sub Losses
0
Avg R3.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R2.0 stoppage
1 fight ago
Last KO loss
2 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
21/34 fights
Chin rating based on
4/32 fights
Cote
Voelker
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
79
0
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
4-fight 📉 slide
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R3
W · KO · R2
W · KO · R3
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R2
L · Dec · R3
Cote
Voelker
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
40%
0%
4
KO / TKO Wins
0
0
Submission Wins
0
6
Decision Wins
0
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Cote
Voelker
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
5.0
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.0
1.2
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.0
0.8
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.0
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
4.2
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
0.0
5.0
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
0.0
CoteVoelker
Strike Zones
Cote
Attacking
10 landedAbsorbing
31 absorbedVoelker
Attacking
31 landedAbsorbing
10 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Cote targets the head (60% of attacks) — Voelker absorbs 60% of strikes there
🎯Voelker targets the head (71% of attacks) — Cote absorbs 71% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Cote
RND
Voelker
0/0R00/0
Cote · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.6WinLossTrend
Voelker · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.9WinLossTrend
Cote · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Thiago AlvesRating 5.5Decision
UFC 210: Cormier vs. Johnson 2 · 2017-04
L · KO · R3
Donald CerroneRating 4KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: MacDonald vs Thompson · 2016-06
W · KO · R2
Ben SaundersRating 5.2KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Dillashaw vs Cruz · 2016-01
W · KO · R3
Joshua BurkmanRating 5.5KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs Oliveira · 2015-08
W · Dec · R3
Joe RiggsRating 4.5Decision
UFC 186: Johnson vs Horiguchi · 2015-04
Voelker · Last 4
L · Dec · R3
Lance BenoistRating 5.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Henderson vs Khabilov · 2014-06
L · Dec · R3
William MacarioRating 5.5Decision
UFC 168: Weidman vs Silva 2 · 2013-12
L · KO · R2
Robbie LawlerRating 3KO/TKO
UFC on FOX: Johnson vs Moraga · 2013-07
L · Dec · R3
Patrick CoteRating 5.5Decision
UFC 158: St-Pierre vs Diaz · 2013-03