UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. Nurmagomedov
Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates
3 Aug 2024
Women's Strawweight
VS
57%
Dern
43%
Godinez
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Mackenzie
Mackenzie Dern
16 – 5
5'4"63" reachOrthodox33 yrs3-fight win streakWell-Rounded
CFR 60
Loopy
Loopy Godinez
14 – 6
Well-Rounded32 yrsOrthodox61" reach5'2"
CFR 44

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Dern

This is a genuine toss-up — Dern at 57% vs Godinez at 43% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 15 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Godinez has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Dern
Godinez
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'4"+
Height
5'2"
63"+
Reach
61"
33
Age
+32
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Dern
Godinez
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
59.6
44.2
51.1
Performance Avg
42.7
39
Quality of Victory
31
94
Momentum Score
49
Dern
Godinez
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.2
1.8
44%
Strike Accuracy
49%
1.4
Striking Style Score (/10)
1.2
0 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
19
Head
14
2
Body
12
2
Leg
2
RangeRange
19Distance23
4Clinch5
0Ground0
Dern
Godinez
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.2
Sub Attempts / fight
—
5.0
Grappling Style Score (/10)
3.6
3.5
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
2.5
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Dern
Godinez
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
70
78
Moderate
Verdict
Never stopped
1
KO/TKO Losses
0
0
Sub Losses
1
Avg R2.0 stoppage
KO round context
—
4 fights ago
Last KO loss
—
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
16/21 fights
Chin rating based on
15/20 fights
Dern
Godinez
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
94
49
3-fight 🔥 win streak
Current form
W · Dec · R5
W · Sub · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R2
Last 5
L · Sub · R2
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
Dern
Godinez
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
46%
22%
0
KO / TKO Wins
0
5
Submission Wins
2
6
Decision Wins
7

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Dern
Godinez
Striking1.4 / 1.2Volume5.7 / 7.4Grappling5.0 / 3.6Wrestling3.5 / 2.5Submission4.5 / 2.2Pressure5.2 / 3.4
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
1.4
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
1.2
5.0
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
3.6
3.5
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
2.5
4.5
Submission
Submission attack frequency
2.2
5.2
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
3.4
5.7
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
7.4
Dern
Strike Zones
Godinez
Dern
Attacking
19HEAD2BODY2LEGS23 landed
Absorbing
14HEAD12BODY2LEGS28 absorbed
Godinez
Attacking
14HEAD12BODY2LEGS28 landed
Absorbing
19HEAD2BODY2LEGS23 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Dern targets the head (83% of attacks) — Godinez absorbs 83% of strikes there
🎯Godinez targets the head (50% of attacks) — Dern absorbs 50% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Dern
RND
Godinez
0/0R00/0

Dern · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.2
0104.5W5.0W5.6L5.0W5.0W5.2W5.0W6.2L5.2W6.5L4.6W3.5L6.6L5.0W5.4W5.2W2018-032020-092022-042024-022025-10
WinLossTrend

Godinez · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.4
0105.6L5.0W6.1L5.4W5.5W5.6L4.5W4.5W5.2W5.2W6.2L6.7L5.1W5.3W4.6L2021-042022-052023-092025-032026-04
WinLossTrend

Dern · Last 5

W · Dec · R5
Virna JandirobaRating 5.2
Decision
UFC 321: Aspinall vs. Gane · 2025-10
W · Sub · R3
Amanda RibasRating 5.4
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Ribas 2 · 2025-01
W · Dec · R3
Loopy GodinezRating 5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. Nurmagomedov · 2024-08
L · Dec · R3
Amanda LemosRating 6.6
Decision
UFC 298: Volkanovski vs. Topuria · 2024-02
L · KO · R2
Jessica AndradeRating 3.5
KO/TKO
UFC 295: Prochazka vs. Pereira · 2023-11

Godinez · Last 5

L · Sub · R2
Tatiana SuarezRating 4.6
Submission
UFC 327: Prochazka vs. Ulberg · 2026-04
W · Dec · R3
Jessica AndradeRating 5.3
Decision
UFC 319: Du Plessis vs. Chimaev · 2025-08
W · Dec · R3
Julia PolastriRating 5.1
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Erceg · 2025-03
L · Dec · R3
Mackenzie DernRating 6.7
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. Nurmagomedov · 2024-08
L · Dec · R3
Virna JandirobaRating 6.2
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Blanchfield vs. Fiorot · 2024-03

News & Media

Mackenzie Dern · Loopy Godinez
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