UFC Fight Night: Ankalaev vs. Walker 2
Las Vegas, USA
13 Jan 2024
Middleweight
VS
33%
Hawes
67%
Ferreira
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 1 · 4:55
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Ferreira
Ferreira holds a meaningful edge at 67% per the CFR ratings — but Hawes has real paths to victory.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 34 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Ferreira has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 10 points.
Hawes has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Hawes's chin rating of 12 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Ferreira has a chin rating of 44 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Hawes
Ferreira
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'0"+
Height
5'10"
77"+
Reach
72"
37
Age
+33
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Hawes
Ferreira
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
32.2
66.1
44.8
Performance Avg
57.5
41
Quality of Victory
51
13
Momentum Score
100
Hawes
Ferreira
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
3.8
1.9
59%
Strike Accuracy
50%
6.0
Striking Style Score (/10)
6.3
2 KOs
KO Finishes
3 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
8
Head
18
4
Body
0
1
Leg
1
RangeRange
12Distance15
1Clinch0
0Ground4
Hawes
Ferreira
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
—
Sub Attempts / fight
0.2
1.2
Grappling Style Score (/10)
3.1
0.8
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
2.1
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Hawes
Ferreira
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
12
44
3 consec. KOs
Verdict
KO risk
4
KO/TKO Losses
2
0
Sub Losses
1
Avg R1.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
1 fight ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
8/18 fights
Chin rating based on
10/18 fights
Hawes
Ferreira
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
13
100
3-fight 📉 slide
Current form
L · KO · R1
L · KO · R1
L · KO · R1
W · KO · R2
L · KO · R1
Last 5
Upcoming
L · KO · R1
W · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R1
W · Sub · R2
Hawes
Ferreira
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
50%
83%
2
KO / TKO Wins
3
0
Submission Wins
2
2
Decision Wins
1
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Hawes
Ferreira
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
6.0
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
6.3
1.2
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
3.1
0.8
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
2.1
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
3.3
5.0
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
7.8
5.0
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
2.7
HawesFerreira
Strike Zones
Hawes
Attacking
13 landedAbsorbing
19 absorbedFerreira
Attacking
19 landedAbsorbing
13 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Hawes targets the head (62% of attacks) — Ferreira absorbs 62% of strikes there
🎯Ferreira targets the head (95% of attacks) — Hawes absorbs 95% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Hawes
RND
Ferreira
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0
Hawes · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.2WinLossTrend
Ferreira · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.9WinLossTrend
Hawes · Last 5
L · KO · R1
Brunno FerreiraRating 3.1KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Ankalaev vs. Walker 2 · 2024-01
L · KO · R1
Ikram AliskerovRating 3.2KO/TKO
UFC 288: Sterling vs. Cejudo · 2023-05
L · KO · R1
Roman DolidzeRating 2.9KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Kattar vs. Allen · 2022-10
W · KO · R2
Deron WinnRating 5.2KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Kattar vs. Emmett · 2022-06
L · KO · R1
Chris CurtisRating 2.2KO/TKO
UFC 268: Usman vs. Covington 2 · 2021-11
Ferreira · Last 5
Upcoming
Ikram AliskerovUFC Fight Night: Fiziev vs. Torres · 2026-06
L · KO · R1
Gregory RodriguesRating 3.1KO/TKO
UFC 326: Holloway vs. Oliveira 2 · 2026-03
W · Dec · R3
Marvin VettoriRating 5.3Decision
UFC 323: Dvalishvili vs. Yan 2 · 2025-12
W · Sub · R1
Jackson McVeyRating 6Submission
UFC 318: Holloway vs. Poirier 3 · 2025-07
W · Sub · R2
Armen PetrosyanRating 5.2Submission
UFC 313: Pereira vs. Ankalaev · 2025-03