★ Championship Bout · Welterweight
UFC 111: St-Pierre vs Hardy
Newark, USA
27 Mar 2010
Welterweight
VS
62%
St-Pierre
38%
Hardy
Win Probability
Decision
Round 5 · 5:00
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: St-Pierre
St-Pierre holds a meaningful edge at 62% per the CFR ratings — but Hardy has real paths to victory.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 9 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
St-Pierre has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 15 points.
St-Pierre has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
St-Pierre's chin rating of 66 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Hardy has a chin rating of 62 — a potential KO vulnerability.
St-Pierre
Hardy
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'11"
Height
+6'0"
76"+
Reach
74"
45
Age
+44
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
St-Pierre
Hardy
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
24.6
15.4
67.2
Performance Avg
46.0
51
Quality of Victory
37
100
Momentum Score
38
St-Pierre
Hardy
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.2
0.9
57%
Strike Accuracy
34%
4.3
Striking Style Score (/10)
4.5
5 KOs
KO Finishes
2 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
11
Head
1
7
Body
0
3
Leg
1
RangeRange
4Distance1
0Clinch0
17Ground1
St-Pierre
Hardy
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
—
2.6
Grappling Style Score (/10)
1.6
1.9
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
1.1
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
St-Pierre
Hardy
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
66
62
Moderate
Verdict
Moderate
1
KO/TKO Losses
1
1
Sub Losses
1
Avg R1.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
13 fights ago
Last KO loss
4 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
22/28 fights
Chin rating based on
10/35 fights
St-Pierre
Hardy
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
100
38
13-fight 🔥 win streak
Current form
2-fight 🔥 win streak
W · Sub · R3
W · Dec · R5
W · Dec · R5
W · Dec · R5
W · Dec · R5
Last 5
W · Dec · R3
W · KO · R1
L · Sub · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
St-Pierre
Hardy
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
40%
33%
5
KO / TKO Wins
2
3
Submission Wins
0
12
Decision Wins
4
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
St-Pierre
Hardy
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
4.3
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
4.5
2.6
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
1.6
1.9
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.1
1.5
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
5.5
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
4.1
6.6
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
6.5
St-PierreHardy
Strike Zones
St-Pierre
Attacking
21 landedAbsorbing
2 absorbedHardy
Attacking
2 landedAbsorbing
21 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯St-Pierre targets the head (52% of attacks) — Hardy absorbs 52% of strikes there
🎯Hardy targets the head (50% of attacks) — St-Pierre absorbs 50% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
St-Pierre
RND
Hardy
0/0R00/0
St-Pierre · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.5WinLossTrend
Hardy · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.5WinLossTrend
St-Pierre · Last 5
W · Sub · R3
Michael BispingRating 5.2Submission
UFC 217: Bisping vs. St-Pierre · 2017-11
W · Dec · R5
Johny HendricksRating 4.5Decision
UFC 167: St-Pierre vs Hendricks · 2013-11
W · Dec · R5
Nick DiazRating 4.5Decision
UFC 158: St-Pierre vs Diaz · 2013-03
W · Dec · R5
Carlos ConditRating 4.5Decision
UFC 154: St-Pierre vs Condit · 2012-11
W · Dec · R5
Jake ShieldsRating 4.5Decision
UFC 129: St-Pierre vs Shields · 2011-04
Hardy · Last 5
W · Dec · R3
Amir SadollahRating 4.5Decision
UFC on FUEL TV: Struve vs Miocic · 2012-09
W · KO · R1
Duane LudwigRating 5KO/TKO
UFC 146: Dos Santos vs Mir · 2012-05
L · Sub · R3
Chris LytleRating 4Submission
UFC Live: Hardy vs Lytle · 2011-08
L · Dec · R3
Anthony JohnsonRating 5.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Nogueira vs Davis · 2011-03
L · KO · R1
Carlos ConditRating 1.5KO/TKO
UFC 120: Bisping vs Akiyama · 2010-10