UFC Fight Night: Edwards vs. Muhammad
Las Vegas, USA
13 Mar 2021
Welterweight
VS
69%
Semelsberger
31%
Witt
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 1 · 0:16
Matthew
Matthew Semelsberger
"Semi The Jedi"
11 – 8
6'1"75" reachSwitch33 yrs4-fight slideWell-Rounded
CFR 45
JW
Jason Witt
"The Vanilla Gorilla"
19 – 9
Well-Rounded2-fight slide39 yrsOrthodox70" reach5'10"
CFR 20

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Semelsberger

Semelsberger holds a meaningful edge at 69% per the CFR ratings — but Witt has real paths to victory.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 25 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Semelsberger has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Risk flags

Semelsberger's chin rating of 48 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Witt has a chin rating of 12 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Semelsberger
Witt
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'1"+
Height
5'10"
75"+
Reach
70"
33+
Age
39
Switch
Stance
Orthodox
Semelsberger
Witt
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
45.1
20.2
41.6
Performance Avg
35.7
39
Quality of Victory
37
84
Momentum Score
45
Semelsberger
Witt
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.2
0.9
43%
Strike Accuracy
43%
4.9
Striking Style Score (/10)
0.7
2 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
2
Head
2
0
Body
0
1
Leg
2
RangeRange
2Distance4
0Clinch0
1Ground0
Semelsberger
Witt
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
1.4
/ 10
5.2
/ 10
1.0
Wrestling Style (/10)
3.6
0.0
Submission Style (/10)
5.0
0
Submission wins
1
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Semelsberger
Witt
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
48
12
KO risk
Verdict
2 consec. KOs
2
KO/TKO Losses
4
0
Sub Losses
0
Avg R2.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.3 stoppage
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
11/19 fights
Chin rating based on
6/28 fights
Semelsberger
Witt
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
84
45
4-fight 📉 slide
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
L · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · KO · R1
L · KO · R2
W · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
W · Sub · R2
Semelsberger
Witt
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
40%
50%
2
KO / TKO Wins
0
0
Submission Wins
1
3
Decision Wins
1

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Semelsberger
Witt
Striking4.9 / 0.7Volume5.7 / 4.7Grappling1.4 / 5.2Wrestling1.0 / 3.6Submission0.0 / 5.0Pressure4.2 / 4.5
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
4.9
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.7
1.4
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
5.2
1.0
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
3.6
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
5.0
4.2
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
4.5
5.7
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
4.7
Semelsberger
Strike Zones
Witt
Semelsberger
Attacking
2HEAD0BODY1LEGS3 landed
Absorbing
2HEAD0BODY2LEGS4 absorbed
Witt
Attacking
2HEAD0BODY2LEGS4 landed
Absorbing
2HEAD0BODY1LEGS3 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Semelsberger targets the head (67% of attacks) — Witt absorbs 67% of strikes there
🎯Witt targets the head (50% of attacks) — Semelsberger absorbs 50% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Semelsberger
RND
Witt
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0

Semelsberger · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.3
0104.5W5.0W6.9L5.0W4.5W5.5L5.5W6.9L5.8L5.5L2.7L2020-082021-092022-122024-012024-11
WinLossTrend

Witt · QOF Timeline

Avg: 3.3
0101.7L5.2W2.0L4.9W3.8L1.9L2020-062020-102021-032021-072022-022022-08
WinLossTrend

Semelsberger · Last 5

L · KO · R1
Charles RadtkeRating 2.7
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Magny vs. Prates · 2024-11
L · Dec · R3
Preston ParsonsRating 5.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Ankalaev vs. Walker 2 · 2024-01
L · KO · R3
Uros MedicRating 5.8
KO/TKO
UFC 291: Poirier vs. Gaethje 2 · 2023-07
L · Dec · R3
Jeremiah WellsRating 6.9
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Pavlovich vs. Blaydes · 2023-04
W · Dec · R3
Jake MatthewsRating 5.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. Strickland · 2022-12

Witt · Last 5

L · KO · R1
Josh QuinlanRating 1.9
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Vera vs. Cruz · 2022-08
L · KO · R2
Phil RoweRating 3.8
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Hermansson vs. Strickland · 2022-02
W · Dec · R3
Bryan BarberenaRating 4.9
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Hall vs. Strickland · 2021-07
L · KO · R1
Matthew SemelsbergerRating 2
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Edwards vs. Muhammad · 2021-03
W · Sub · R2
Cole WilliamsRating 5.2
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Hall vs. Silva · 2020-10

News & Media

Matthew Semelsberger · Jason Witt
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