UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Aspinall
London, United Kingdom
23 Jul 2022
Heavyweight
VS
39%
Blaydes
61%
Aspinall
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 1 · 0:15
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Aspinall
Aspinall holds a meaningful edge at 61% per the CFR ratings — but Blaydes has real paths to victory.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 29 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Aspinall has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 28 points.
Aspinall has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Blaydes's chin rating of 8 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Blaydes
Aspinall
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'4"
Height
+6'5"
80"+
Reach
78"
35
Age
+33
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Blaydes
Aspinall
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
53.9
83.0
53.4
Performance Avg
77.7
42
Quality of Victory
70
81
Momentum Score
100
Blaydes
Aspinall
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.6
4.7
56%
Strike Accuracy
69%
6.4
Striking Style Score (/10)
9.3
7 KOs
KO Finishes
6 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
2
Head
0
1
Body
1
1
Leg
2
RangeRange
4Distance3
0Clinch0
0Ground0
Blaydes
Aspinall
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
1.0
/ 10
2.0
/ 10
0.7
Wrestling Style (/10)
1.4
0.0
Submission Style (/10)
2.5
0
Submission wins
2
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Blaydes
Aspinall
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
8
78
KO risk
Verdict
Moderate
4
KO/TKO Losses
1
0
Sub Losses
0
Avg R1.3 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
2 fights ago
Last KO loss
4 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
21/25 fights
Chin rating based on
10/18 fights
Blaydes
Aspinall
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
81
100
Current form
3-fight 🔥 win streak
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
W · KO · R2
L · KO · R1
Last 5
Upcoming
W · KO · R1
W · KO · R1
W · KO · R1
L · KO · R1
Blaydes
Aspinall
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
50%
100%
7
KO / TKO Wins
6
0
Submission Wins
2
7
Decision Wins
0
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Blaydes
Aspinall
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
6.4
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
9.3
1.0
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.0
0.7
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.4
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
2.5
5.6
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
9.7
4.8
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
1.8
BlaydesAspinall
Strike Zones
Blaydes
Attacking
4 landedAbsorbing
3 absorbedAspinall
Attacking
3 landedAbsorbing
4 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Blaydes targets the head (50% of attacks) — Aspinall absorbs 50% of strikes there
🎯Aspinall targets the legs (67% of attacks) — Blaydes absorbs 67% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Blaydes
RND
Aspinall
0/0R00/0
Blaydes · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.0WinLossTrend
Aspinall · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.3WinLossTrend
Blaydes · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Josh HokitRating 7.5Decision
UFC 327: Prochazka vs. Ulberg · 2026-04
W · Dec · R3
Rizvan KunievRating 4.8Decision
UFC Fight Night: Hill vs. Rountree Jr. · 2025-06
L · KO · R1
Tom AspinallRating 3.9KO/TKO
UFC 304: Edwards vs. Muhammad 2 · 2024-07
W · KO · R2
Jailton AlmeidaRating 7KO/TKO
UFC 299: O'Malley vs. Vera 2 · 2024-03
L · KO · R1
Sergei PavlovichRating 2.7KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Pavlovich vs. Blaydes · 2023-04
Aspinall · Last 5
Upcoming
Ciryl GaneUFC 321: Aspinall vs. Gane · 2025-10
W · KO · R1
Curtis BlaydesRating 5.9KO/TKO
UFC 304: Edwards vs. Muhammad 2 · 2024-07
W · KO · R1
Sergei PavlovichRating 6.2KO/TKO
UFC 295: Prochazka vs. Pereira · 2023-11
W · KO · R1
Marcin TyburaRating 5.4KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Aspinall vs. Tybura · 2023-07
L · KO · R1
Curtis BlaydesRating 2.4KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Aspinall · 2022-07