UFC 148: Silva vs Sonnen 2
Las Vegas, USA
7 Jul 2012
Featherweight
VS
54%
Mendes
46%
McKenzie
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 1 · 0:31
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Mendes
This is a genuine toss-up — Mendes at 54% vs McKenzie at 46% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
Mendes has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Mendes's chin rating of 10 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
McKenzie has a chin rating of 52 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Mendes
McKenzie
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'6"
Height
+6'0"
66"
Reach
+72"
41
Age
+38
Orthodox
Stance
Switch
Mendes
McKenzie
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
21.1
18.1
54.7
Performance Avg
43.7
48
Quality of Victory
44
100
Momentum Score
72
Mendes
McKenzie
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.5
0.7
57%
Strike Accuracy
32%
8.0
Striking Style Score (/10)
0.9
6 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
5
Head
0
2
Body
0
1
Leg
1
RangeRange
4Distance1
0Clinch0
4Ground0
Mendes
McKenzie
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
—
Sub Attempts / fight
0.9
0.8
Grappling Style Score (/10)
6.1
0.6
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
4.3
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Mendes
McKenzie
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
10
52
2 consec. KOs
Verdict
KO risk
4
KO/TKO Losses
1
0
Sub Losses
2
Avg R1.5 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
2 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
14/23 fights
Chin rating based on
7/26 fights
Mendes
McKenzie
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
100
72
L · KO · R2
W · KO · R1
L · KO · R1
L · KO · R2
W · KO · R1
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
W · Sub · R1
L · Sub · R2
Mendes
McKenzie
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
67%
67%
6
KO / TKO Wins
0
0
Submission Wins
2
3
Decision Wins
1
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Mendes
McKenzie
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
8.0
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.9
0.8
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
6.1
0.6
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
4.3
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
6.7
6.6
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
6.0
4.0
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
3.5
MendesMcKenzie
Strike Zones
Mendes
Attacking
8 landedAbsorbing
1 absorbedMcKenzie
Attacking
1 landedAbsorbing
8 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Mendes targets the head (63% of attacks) — McKenzie absorbs 63% of strikes there
🎯McKenzie targets the legs (100% of attacks) — Mendes absorbs 100% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Mendes
RND
McKenzie
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0
Mendes · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.5WinLossTrend
McKenzie · QOF Timeline
Avg: 3.9WinLossTrend
Mendes · Last 5
L · KO · R2
Alexander VolkanovskiRating 4.2KO/TKO
UFC 232: Jones vs. Gustafsson 2 · 2018-12
W · KO · R1
Myles JuryRating 5KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Dos Santos vs. Ivanov · 2018-07
L · KO · R1
Frankie EdgarRating 1.5KO/TKO
The Ultimate Fighter: Team McGregor vs. Team Faber Finale · 2015-12
L · KO · R2
Conor McGregorRating 4.1KO/TKO
UFC 189: Mendes vs McGregor · 2015-07
W · KO · R1
Ricardo LamasRating 5KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Mendes vs Lamas · 2015-04
McKenzie · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Sam StoutRating 5.5Decision
UFC on FOX: Johnson vs. Benavidez 2 · 2013-12
W · Dec · R3
Leonard GarciaRating 4.5Decision
UFC 159: Jones vs Sonnen · 2013-04
L · KO · R1
Chad MendesRating 1.5KO/TKO
UFC 148: Silva vs Sonnen 2 · 2012-07
W · Sub · R1
Marcus LeVesseurRating 5Submission
UFC on FUEL TV: Korean Zombie vs Poirier · 2012-05
L · Sub · R2
Vagner RochaRating 2.8Submission
UFC Fight Night: Shields vs Ellenberger · 2011-09