UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs. Murphy
Las Vegas, USA
5 Apr 2025
Middleweight
VS
46%
Finney
54%
Valentin
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Valentin
This is a genuine toss-up — Finney at 46% vs Valentin at 54% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
Valentin has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 29 points.
Valentin has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Valentin has a chin rating of 54 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Finney
Valentin
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'8"
Height
+6'2"
75"
Reach
+77"
27+
Age
31
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Finney
Valentin
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
40.5
47.3
35.0
Performance Avg
42.4
25
Quality of Victory
54
55
Momentum Score
36
Finney
Valentin
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
0.4
0.9
36%
Strike Accuracy
56%
1.0
Striking Style Score (/10)
0.5
0 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
0
Head
11
0
Body
2
0
Leg
1
RangeRange
0Distance4
0Clinch6
0Ground4
Finney
Valentin
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
2.4
/ 10
8.0
/ 10
1.7
Wrestling Style (/10)
5.6
0.0
Submission Style (/10)
10.0
0
Submission wins
1
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Finney
Valentin
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
98
54
Never stopped
Verdict
KO risk
0
KO/TKO Losses
2
0
Sub Losses
0
—
KO round context
Avg R1.5 stoppage
—
Last KO loss
1 fight ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
2/12 fights
Chin rating based on
4/18 fights
Finney
Valentin
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
55
36
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
W · Sub · R1
L · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R2
Finney
Valentin
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
0%
100%
0
KO / TKO Wins
0
0
Submission Wins
1
1
Decision Wins
0
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Finney
Valentin
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
1.0
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.5
2.4
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
8.0
1.7
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
5.6
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
10.0
1.5
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
7.8
9.0
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
0.5
FinneyValentin
Strike Zones
Finney
Attacking
0 landedAbsorbing
14 absorbedValentin
Attacking
14 landedAbsorbing
0 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Valentin targets the head (79% of attacks) — Finney absorbs 79% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Finney
RND
Valentin
0/0R00/0
Finney · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.8WinLossTrend
Valentin · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.8WinLossTrend
Finney · Last 2
L · Dec · R3
Jacob MalkounRating 6.5Decision
UFC 325: Volkanovski vs. Lopes 2 · 2026-01
W · Dec · R3
Robert ValentinRating 5.1Decision
UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs. Murphy · 2025-04
Valentin · Last 4
W · Sub · R1
Julien LeblancRating 5Submission
UFC Fight Night: Burns vs. Malott · 2026-04
L · KO · R1
Ateba GautierRating 3.7KO/TKO
UFC 318: Holloway vs. Poirier 3 · 2025-07
L · Dec · R3
Torrez FinneyRating 5.8Decision
UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs. Murphy · 2025-04
L · KO · R2
Ryan LoderRating 4.5KO/TKO
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