★ Championship Bout · Middleweight
UFC 312: Du Plessis vs. Strickland 2
Sydney, Australia
8 Feb 2025
Middleweight
VS
56%
Plessis
44%
Strickland
Win Probability
Decision
Round 5 · 5:00
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Plessis
This is a genuine toss-up — Plessis at 56% vs Strickland at 44% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 16 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Plessis has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 13 points.
Plessis has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Strickland has a chin rating of 46 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Plessis
Strickland
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'1"
Height
6'1"
76"
Reach
76"
32+
Age
35
Switch
Stance
Orthodox
Plessis
Strickland
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
73.5
57.7
65.6
Performance Avg
50.9
49
Quality of Victory
37
100
Momentum Score
100
Plessis
Strickland
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
2.2
2.1
53%
Strike Accuracy
45%
6.2
Striking Style Score (/10)
4.2
4 KOs
KO Finishes
5 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
14
Head
24
13
Body
6
9
Leg
1
RangeRange
36Distance31
0Clinch0
0Ground0
Plessis
Strickland
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
—
2.6
Grappling Style Score (/10)
2.0
1.8
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
1.4
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Plessis
Strickland
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
98
46
Never stopped
Verdict
KO risk
0
KO/TKO Losses
2
0
Sub Losses
0
—
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
—
Last KO loss
9 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
10/26 fights
Chin rating based on
25/38 fights
Plessis
Strickland
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
100
100
Current form
2-fight 🔥 win streak
L · Dec · R5
W · Dec · R5
W · Sub · R4
W · Dec · R5
W · KO · R2
Last 5
W · Dec · R5
W · KO · R3
L · Dec · R5
W · Dec · R5
L · Dec · R5
Plessis
Strickland
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
67%
33%
4
KO / TKO Wins
5
2
Submission Wins
1
3
Decision Wins
12
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Plessis
Strickland
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
6.2
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
4.2
2.6
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.0
1.8
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.4
2.2
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.6
7.4
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
4.5
4.5
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
6.8
PlessisStrickland
Strike Zones
Plessis
Attacking
36 landedAbsorbing
31 absorbedStrickland
Attacking
31 landedAbsorbing
36 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Plessis targets the head (39% of attacks) — Strickland absorbs 39% of strikes there
🎯Strickland targets the head (77% of attacks) — Plessis absorbs 77% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Plessis
RND
Strickland
0/0R00/0
Plessis · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.8WinLossTrend
Strickland · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.4WinLossTrend
Plessis · Last 5
L · Dec · R5
Khamzat ChimaevRating 7.4Decision
UFC 319: Du Plessis vs. Chimaev · 2025-08
W · Dec · R5
Sean StricklandRating 5.6Decision
UFC 312: Du Plessis vs. Strickland 2 · 2025-02
W · Sub · R4
Israel AdesanyaRating 6.8Submission
UFC 305: Du Plessis vs. Adesanya · 2024-08
W · Dec · R5
Sean StricklandRating 5.6Decision
UFC 297: Strickland vs. Du Plessis · 2024-01
W · KO · R2
Robert WhittakerRating 6.2KO/TKO
UFC 290: Volkanovski vs. Rodriguez · 2023-07
Strickland · Last 5
W · Dec · R5
Khamzat ChimaevRating 6.4Decision
UFC 328: Chimaev vs. Strickland · 2026-05
W · KO · R3
Anthony HernandezRating 6.7KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Strickland vs. Hernandez · 2026-02
L · Dec · R5
Dricus Du PlessisRating 7.4Decision
UFC 312: Du Plessis vs. Strickland 2 · 2025-02
W · Dec · R5
Paulo CostaRating 5.5Decision
UFC 302: Makhachev vs. Poirier · 2024-06
L · Dec · R5
Dricus Du PlessisRating 7.4Decision
UFC 297: Strickland vs. Du Plessis · 2024-01