UFC on FOX: Henderson vs Melendez
San Jose, USA
20 Apr 2013
Featherweight
VS
32%
Mendes
68%
Elkins
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 1 · 1:08
CM
Chad Mendes
"Money"
18 – 5
5'6"66" reachOrthodox41 yrsStriker
CFR 21
Darren
Darren Elkins
"The Damage"
29 – 12
Well-Rounded42 yrsOrthodox71" reach5'10"
CFR 45

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Elkins

Elkins holds a meaningful edge at 68% per the CFR ratings — but Mendes has real paths to victory.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 24 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Mendes has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 13 points.

Mendes has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Risk flags

Mendes's chin rating of 10 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Elkins has a chin rating of 0 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Mendes
Elkins
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'6"
Height
+5'10"
66"
Reach
+71"
41+
Age
42
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Mendes
Elkins
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
21.1
44.7
54.7
Performance Avg
46.3
48
Quality of Victory
35
100
Momentum Score
66
Mendes
Elkins
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.5
1.3
57%
Strike Accuracy
38%
8.0
Striking Style Score (/10)
3.4
6 KOs
KO Finishes
4 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
5
Head
1
0
Body
1
2
Leg
0
RangeRange
5Distance2
0Clinch0
2Ground0
Mendes
Elkins
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
—
Sub Attempts / fight
0.1
0.8
Grappling Style Score (/10)
2.8
0.6
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
1.9
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Mendes
Elkins
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
10
0
2 consec. KOs
Verdict
KO risk
4
KO/TKO Losses
4
0
Sub Losses
1
Avg R1.5 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.5 stoppage
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
14/23 fights
Chin rating based on
30/41 fights
Mendes
Elkins
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
100
66
L · KO · R2
W · KO · R1
L · KO · R1
L · KO · R2
W · KO · R1
Last 5
L · KO · R1
W · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Mendes
Elkins
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
67%
37%
6
KO / TKO Wins
4
0
Submission Wins
3
3
Decision Wins
12

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Mendes
Elkins
Striking8.0 / 3.4Volume4.0 / 6.3Grappling0.8 / 2.8Wrestling0.6 / 1.9Submission0.0 / 1.6Pressure6.6 / 4.5
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
8.0
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
3.4
0.8
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.8
0.6
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.9
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
1.6
6.6
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
4.5
4.0
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
6.3
Mendes
Strike Zones
Elkins
Mendes
Attacking
5HEAD0BODY2LEGS7 landed
Absorbing
1HEAD1BODY0LEGS2 absorbed
Elkins
Attacking
1HEAD1BODY0LEGS2 landed
Absorbing
5HEAD0BODY2LEGS7 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Mendes targets the head (71% of attacks) — Elkins absorbs 71% of strikes there
🎯Elkins targets the head (50% of attacks) — Mendes absorbs 50% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Mendes
RND
Elkins
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0

Mendes · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.5
0104.5W4.9W2.0L5.0W5.0W5.5W6.0W4.5W6.0L5.0W4.1L1.5L5.0W4.2L2011-022012-122014-102018-072018-12
WinLossTrend

Elkins · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.7
0105.0W2.9L4.5W4.5W4.5W4.5W5.0W1.5L4.5W6.0L4.5W5.5L4.5W4.5W4.5W5.5W4.5W5.3W7.0L4.0L5.5L6.2L5.5W5.2W2.0L4.5W6.0L5.5W5.4W1.7L2010-032013-082017-072021-122025-04
WinLossTrend

Mendes · Last 5

L · KO · R2
Alexander VolkanovskiRating 4.2
KO/TKO
UFC 232: Jones vs. Gustafsson 2 · 2018-12
W · KO · R1
Myles JuryRating 5
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Dos Santos vs. Ivanov · 2018-07
L · KO · R1
Frankie EdgarRating 1.5
KO/TKO
The Ultimate Fighter: Team McGregor vs. Team Faber Finale · 2015-12
L · KO · R2
Conor McGregorRating 4.1
KO/TKO
UFC 189: Mendes vs McGregor · 2015-07
W · KO · R1
Ricardo LamasRating 5
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Mendes vs Lamas · 2015-04

Elkins · Last 5

L · KO · R1
Julian ErosaRating 1.7
KO/TKO
UFC 314: Volkanovski vs. Lopes · 2025-04
W · Dec · R3
Daniel PinedaRating 5.4
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Hernandez vs. Pereira · 2024-10
W · Sub · R3
TJ BrownRating 5.5
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Yusuff vs. Barboza · 2023-10
L · Dec · R3
Jonathan PearceRating 6
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. Holland · 2022-12
W · Dec · R3
Tristan ConnellyRating 4.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Font vs. Vera · 2022-04

News & Media

Chad Mendes · Darren Elkins
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