UFC 311: Makhachev vs. Moicano
Inglewood, USA
18 Jan 2025
Bantamweight
VS
56%
Talbott
44%
Barcelos
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Payton
Payton Talbott
11 – 1
5'10"70" reachSwitch27 yrs2-fight win streakWell-Rounded
CFR 66
Raoni
Raoni Barcelos
22 – 5
Well-Rounded5-fight win streak39 yrsOrthodox67" reach5'7"
CFR 52

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Talbott

This is a genuine toss-up — Talbott at 56% vs Barcelos at 44% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 14 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Striking split: Barcelos throws more volume but Talbott connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.

Talbott
Barcelos
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'10"+
Height
5'7"
70"+
Reach
67"
27+
Age
39
Switch
Stance
Orthodox
Talbott
Barcelos
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
65.5
51.6
58.5
Performance Avg
49.8
42
Quality of Victory
34
86
Momentum Score
63
Talbott
Barcelos
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
2.0
2.1
63%
Strike Accuracy
55%
5.7
Striking Style Score (/10)
3.3
2 KOs
KO Finishes
2 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
18
Head
37
4
Body
0
0
Leg
0
RangeRange
11Distance7
6Clinch3
5Ground27
Talbott
Barcelos
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
2.6
/ 10
3.0
/ 10
1.8
Wrestling Style (/10)
2.1
2.0
Submission Style (/10)
1.8
1
Submission wins
2
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Talbott
Barcelos
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
98
72
Never stopped
Verdict
Moderate
0
KO/TKO Losses
1
0
Sub Losses
0
—
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
—
Last KO loss
6 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
6/12 fights
Chin rating based on
15/27 fights
Talbott
Barcelos
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
86
63
2-fight 🔥 win streak
Current form
5-fight 🔥 win streak
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · KO · R1
W · KO · R2
Last 5
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R3
Talbott
Barcelos
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
60%
36%
2
KO / TKO Wins
2
1
Submission Wins
2
2
Decision Wins
7

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Talbott
Barcelos
Striking5.7 / 3.3Volume4.9 / 6.6Grappling2.6 / 3.0Wrestling1.8 / 2.1Submission2.0 / 1.8Pressure6.7 / 4.8
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
5.7
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
3.3
2.6
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
3.0
1.8
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
2.1
2.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
1.8
6.7
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
4.8
4.9
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
6.6
Talbott
Strike Zones
Barcelos
Talbott
Attacking
18HEAD4BODY0LEGS22 landed
Absorbing
37HEAD0BODY0LEGS37 absorbed
Barcelos
Attacking
37HEAD0BODY0LEGS37 landed
Absorbing
18HEAD4BODY0LEGS22 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Talbott targets the head (82% of attacks) — Barcelos absorbs 82% of strikes there
🎯Barcelos targets the head (100% of attacks) — Talbott absorbs 100% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Talbott
RND
Barcelos
0/0R00/0

Talbott · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.8
0105.5W6.2W5.0W6.3L5.5W6.0W2023-112024-032024-062025-012025-062025-12
WinLossTrend

Barcelos · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.4
0105.5W5.7W5.2W5.9W4.5W5.5L6.4L4.5W2.8L6.2L6.3W6.0W5.6W5.2W5.4W2018-072020-112023-012025-062026-04
WinLossTrend

Talbott · Last 5

W · Dec · R3
Henry CejudoRating 6
Decision
UFC 323: Dvalishvili vs. Yan 2 · 2025-12
W · Dec · R3
Felipe LimaRating 5.5
Decision
UFC 317: Topuria vs. Oliveira · 2025-06
L · Dec · R3
Raoni BarcelosRating 6.3
Decision
UFC 311: Makhachev vs. Moicano · 2025-01
W · KO · R1
Yanis GhemmouriRating 5
KO/TKO
UFC 303: Pereira vs. Prochazka 2 · 2024-06
W · KO · R2
Cameron SaaimanRating 6.2
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Ribas vs. Namajunas · 2024-03

Barcelos · Last 5

W · Dec · R3
Montel JacksonRating 5.4
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Sterling vs. Zalal · 2026-04
W · Dec · R3
Ricky SimonRating 5.2
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Bonfim vs. Brown · 2025-11
W · Dec · R3
Cody GarbrandtRating 5.6
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Usman vs. Buckley · 2025-06
W · Dec · R3
Payton TalbottRating 6
Decision
UFC 311: Makhachev vs. Moicano · 2025-01
W · Sub · R3
Cristian QuinonezRating 6.3
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Royval 2 · 2024-02

News & Media

Payton Talbott · Raoni Barcelos
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