UFC Fight Night: Smith vs. Spann
Las Vegas, USA
18 Sept 2021
Light Heavyweight
VS
57%
Smith
43%
Spann
Win Probability
Submission
Round 1 · 3:47
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Smith
This is a genuine toss-up — Smith at 57% vs Spann at 43% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 15 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Striking split: Spann throws more volume but Smith connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
Risk flags
Smith's chin rating of 0 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Spann has a chin rating of 8 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Smith
Spann
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'4"
Height
+6'5"
76"
Reach
+79"
37
Age
+34
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Smith
Spann
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
58.3
43.3
50.7
Performance Avg
54.8
50
Quality of Victory
50
100
Momentum Score
10
Smith
Spann
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.3
1.8
52%
Strike Accuracy
40%
4.9
Striking Style Score (/10)
5.3
5 KOs
KO Finishes
4 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
11
Head
5
3
Body
3
3
Leg
0
RangeRange
11Distance6
0Clinch1
6Ground1
Smith
Spann
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
0.5
3.5
Grappling Style Score (/10)
3.7
2.4
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
2.6
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Smith
Spann
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
0
8
2 consec. KOs
Verdict
KO risk
6
KO/TKO Losses
3
1
Sub Losses
2
Avg R2.5 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.7 stoppage
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
2 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
25/60 fights
Chin rating based on
16/35 fights
Smith
Spann
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
100
10
3-fight 📉 slide
Current form
2-fight 🔥 win streak
L · KO · R1
L · KO · R2
L · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R1
L · KO · R3
Last 5
W · KO · R2
W · Sub · R1
L · KO · R2
W · Sub · R1
L · KO · R2
Smith
Spann
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
77%
80%
5
KO / TKO Wins
4
5
Submission Wins
4
3
Decision Wins
2
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Smith
Spann
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
4.9
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
5.3
3.5
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
3.7
2.4
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
2.6
3.9
Submission
Submission attack frequency
4.0
6.9
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
7.5
2.3
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
2.9
SmithSpann
Strike Zones
Smith
Attacking
17 landedAbsorbing
8 absorbedSpann
Attacking
8 landedAbsorbing
17 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Smith targets the head (65% of attacks) — Spann absorbs 65% of strikes there
🎯Spann targets the head (63% of attacks) — Smith absorbs 63% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Smith
RND
Spann
0/0R00/0
0/0R20/0
Smith · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.0WinLossTrend
Spann · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.7WinLossTrend
Smith · Last 5
L · KO · R1
Zhang MingyangRating 3.5KO/TKO
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Spann · Last 5
W · KO · R2
Marcus BuchechaRating 5.2KO/TKO
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