UFC 200: Tate vs Nunes
Las Vegas, USA
9 Jul 2016
Lightweight
VS
89%
Northcutt
11%
Marin
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
SN
Sage Northcutt
"Super"
11 – 2
6'0"71" reachOrthodox30 yrs3-fight win streakWell-Rounded
CFR 21
EM
Enrique Marin
"Wasabi"
10 – 4
Well-Rounded2-fight slide39 yrs5'10"
CFR 3

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Northcutt

Northcutt is a strong favourite at 89% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 19 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Northcutt has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 40 points.

Northcutt has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Northcutt
Marin
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'0"+
Height
5'10"
71"
Reach
30+
Age
39
Orthodox
Stance
—
Northcutt
Marin
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
21.3
2.7
54.0
Performance Avg
0.0
40
Quality of Victory
0
89
Momentum Score
0
Northcutt
Marin
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.6
0.4
59%
Strike Accuracy
34%
4.8
Striking Style Score (/10)
0.0
2 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
21
Head
4
0
Body
1
0
Leg
0
RangeRange
5Distance5
12Clinch0
4Ground0
Northcutt
Marin
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
2.5
/ 10
0.0
/ 10
1.8
Wrestling Style (/10)
0.0
1.7
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
1
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Northcutt
Marin
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
76
96
Never stopped
Verdict
Never stopped
0
KO/TKO Losses
0
2
Sub Losses
0
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
8/13 fights
Chin rating based on
2/14 fights
Northcutt
Marin
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
89
0
3-fight 🔥 win streak
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
W · KO · R2
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R2
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
Northcutt
Marin
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
50%
0%
2
KO / TKO Wins
0
1
Submission Wins
0
3
Decision Wins
0

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Northcutt
Marin
Striking4.8 / 0.0Volume5.5 / 0.0Grappling2.5 / 0.0Wrestling1.8 / 0.0Submission1.7 / 0.0Pressure5.8 / 0.0
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
4.8
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.0
2.5
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.0
1.8
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.0
1.7
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
5.8
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
0.0
5.5
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
0.0
Northcutt
Strike Zones
Marin
Northcutt
Attacking
21HEAD0BODY0LEGS21 landed
Absorbing
4HEAD1BODY0LEGS5 absorbed
Marin
Attacking
4HEAD1BODY0LEGS5 landed
Absorbing
21HEAD0BODY0LEGS21 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Northcutt targets the head (100% of attacks) — Marin absorbs 100% of strikes there
🎯Marin targets the head (80% of attacks) — Northcutt absorbs 80% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Northcutt
RND
Marin
0/0R00/0

Northcutt · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.4
0105.0W5.2W3.2L4.5W3.3L4.5W4.5W5.2W2015-102016-012016-122018-022018-07
WinLossTrend

Marin · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.5
0105.5L5.5L2015-112016-07
WinLossTrend

Northcutt · Last 5

W · KO · R2
Zak OttowRating 5.2
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Dos Santos vs. Ivanov · 2018-07
W · Dec · R3
Thibault GoutiRating 4.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Cerrone vs. Medeiros · 2018-02
W · Dec · R3
Michel QuinonesRating 4.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Poirier vs. Pettis · 2017-11
L · Sub · R2
Mickey GallRating 3.3
Submission
UFC on FOX: VanZant vs. Waterson · 2016-12
W · Dec · R3
Enrique MarinRating 4.5
Decision
UFC 200: Tate vs Nunes · 2016-07

Marin · Last 2

L · Dec · R3
Sage NorthcuttRating 5.5
Decision
UFC 200: Tate vs Nunes · 2016-07
L · Dec · R3
Erick MontanoRating 5.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Magny vs Gastelum · 2015-11

News & Media

Sage Northcutt · Enrique Marin
← Back to fights