UFC 179: Aldo vs Mendes 2
Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
25 Oct 2014
Welterweight
VS
15%
Macario
85%
Magny
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 3 · 2:40
WM
William Macario
"Patolino"
9 – 3
5'11"75" reachOrthodox34 yrs2-fight slideWell-Rounded
CFR 8
Neil
Neil Magny
"The Haitian Sensation"
31 – 15
Well-Rounded38 yrsOrthodox80" reach6'3"
CFR 48

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Magny

Magny is a strong favourite at 85% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 39 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Magny has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 11 points.

Macario has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Risk flags

Macario's chin rating of 44 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Magny has a chin rating of 0 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Macario
Magny
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'11"
Height
+6'3"
75"
Reach
+80"
34+
Age
38
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Macario
Magny
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
8.1
47.5
25.0
Performance Avg
47.4
25
Quality of Victory
36
17
Momentum Score
75
Macario
Magny
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
2.0
1.5
56%
Strike Accuracy
50%
0.5
Striking Style Score (/10)
4.2
0 KOs
KO Finishes
7 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
2
Head
30
0
Body
1
0
Leg
2
RangeRange
2Distance11
0Clinch0
0Ground22
Macario
Magny
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
2.4
/ 10
2.4
/ 10
1.7
Wrestling Style (/10)
1.7
0.0
Submission Style (/10)
1.3
0
Submission wins
3
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Macario
Magny
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
44
0
2 consec. KOs
Verdict
2 consec. KOs
2
KO/TKO Losses
4
1
Sub Losses
6
Avg R2.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.8 stoppage
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
3 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
4/12 fights
Chin rating based on
37/46 fights
Macario
Magny
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
17
75
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
L · KO · R1
L · KO · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R2
Last 5
L · Sub · R1
W · Sub · R3
W · KO · R2
L · KO · R1
L · KO · R1
Macario
Magny
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
0%
42%
0
KO / TKO Wins
7
0
Submission Wins
3
1
Decision Wins
14

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Macario
Magny
Striking0.5 / 4.2Volume8.5 / 6.0Grappling2.4 / 2.4Wrestling1.7 / 1.7Submission0.0 / 1.3Pressure0.8 / 4.9
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
0.5
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
4.2
2.4
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.4
1.7
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.7
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
1.3
0.8
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
4.9
8.5
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
6.0
Macario
Strike Zones
Magny
Macario
Attacking
2HEAD0BODY0LEGS2 landed
Absorbing
30HEAD1BODY2LEGS33 absorbed
Magny
Attacking
30HEAD1BODY2LEGS33 landed
Absorbing
2HEAD0BODY0LEGS2 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Macario targets the head (100% of attacks) — Magny absorbs 100% of strikes there
🎯Magny targets the head (91% of attacks) — Macario absorbs 91% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Macario
RND
Magny
0/0R00/0

Macario · QOF Timeline

Avg: 3.3
0102.8L4.5W4.6L1.5L2013-062013-122014-102015-02
WinLossTrend

Magny · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.7
0104.5W1.5L5.5L4.5W4.6W5.2W4.5W5.5W5.5W5.2W2.8L4.5W4.8W5.5W1.5L4.5W1.7L4.5W5.0W3.9L5.3W4.5W4.8W6.3L5.5W5.1W4.8L6.4W1.7L5.6W7.0L7.3W3.6L3.7L5.8W6.5W3.7L2013-022015-082020-032023-082025-12
WinLossTrend

Macario · Last 4

L · KO · R1
Matt DwyerRating 1.5
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Bigfoot vs Mir · 2015-02
L · KO · R3
Neil MagnyRating 4.6
KO/TKO
UFC 179: Aldo vs Mendes 2 · 2014-10
W · Dec · R3
Bobby VoelkerRating 4.5
Decision
UFC 168: Weidman vs Silva 2 · 2013-12
L · Sub · R2
Leonardo SantosRating 2.8
Submission
UFC on FUEL TV: Nogueira vs. Werdum · 2013-06

Magny · Last 5

L · Sub · R1
Yaroslav AmosovRating 3.7
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Royval vs. Kape · 2025-12
W · Sub · R3
Jake MatthewsRating 6.5
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Ulberg vs. Reyes · 2025-09
W · KO · R2
Elizeu Zaleski dos SantosRating 5.8
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Taira vs. Park · 2025-08
L · KO · R1
Carlos PratesRating 3.7
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Magny vs. Prates · 2024-11
L · KO · R1
Michael MoralesRating 3.6
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. Borralho · 2024-08

News & Media

William Macario · Neil Magny
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